Persian Gulf oil exports hit 72% of prewar levels — as US says Iran is ‘exhausted’ by blockade

Read the original at New York Post ↗
New York Post · collected 2026-09-28 · by Marisa Schultz, Josh Christenson, Ronny Reyes

Quick Summary

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to 72% of pre-war levels, with crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz now slightly under half its pre-war volume, according to analysts. US officials claim Iran is being "strangled" by a naval blockade, leading to severe economic strain and shortages in supplies, water, food, and other essentials. The Iranian rial has plummeted to record lows at 2.45 million per US dollar, reflecting extreme inflation and economic hardship under US sanctions.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-28, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to 80% of pre-war levels, according to data from oil tracker Kpler, despite ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States since February 28. This increase suggests that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is stabilizing, though experts caution that full security and stability remain uncertain until broader conflicts are resolved. The U.S. military's presence in the region has reportedly helped mitigate Iranian threats to oil shipments, contributing to this recovery. However, Iran continues to face severe economic hardships, with its rial depreciating sharply and inflation soaring, weakening its negotiating position. Despite these challenges, some experts argue that Iran retains significant leverage due to unresolved conflicts, making a quick resolution unlikely.

Written for “Iran Oil Strategy Impact” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 7 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
30
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
23%
7 of 30 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Correction & hedging signals
64.3
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
8
Economy/Business
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-28 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Iran Oil Strategy Impact
Economy/Business · 8 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 23% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans strongly left 🔴 6% hedged 3 of 51 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles describe different aspects of the ongoing economic and military situation involving Iran, with Article A focusing on the truck blockade at the Turkey-Iran border, while Article B discusses Persian Gulf oil exports and the impact of the US naval blockade.”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 7% hedged 2 of 30 📰 publisher trust 64
“Both articles discuss the increase in Persian Gulf oil exports and the impact of the US blockade on Iran, referencing similar timescales and events.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 11 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles describe different aspects of the situation involving Iran and oil exports in the Persian Gulf, but they do not report on the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 36 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles describe different aspects of the situation in Iran, with Article A focusing on oil exports and US blockade effects, while Article B focuses on Iranians' response to fears of shortages due to sanctions.”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 6% hedged 1 of 16 📰 publisher trust 64
“Both articles discuss the recovery of Persian Gulf oil exports to near pre-war levels despite Iran's blockade efforts, indicating they are describing the same specific economic and geopolitical situation.”
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 50% hedged 1 of 2 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles report on similar situations but different time points and levels of oil exports.”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 25 📰 publisher trust 64
“The articles discuss different aspects of the US-Iran war; one focuses on oil exports and Iran's economic situation, while the other reports Iraq's stance regarding sanctions against Iranian airlines.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 21% hedged 3 of 14 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss different aspects of the situation involving Iran and its relations with neighboring countries under US sanctions. Article A focuses on oil exports and a naval blockade, while Article B addresses flight restrictions between Iran and Iraq.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 17% hedged 7 of 41 📰 publisher trust 63
“While both articles discuss the ongoing situation with Persian Gulf oil and Iran's blockade, they describe different timeframes and details of the situation.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 14% hedged 7 of 49 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss different aspects of the ongoing situation involving Iran and the US naval blockade but do not describe the same specific incident.”

Publisher

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Running correction rate · 23 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Ronny Reyes
33 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “I was talking to God nonstop, believing prayer was the only thing that could save us.
🔮 Cars could be seen rushing through the blast area to get to the other side as fire and black smoke overtook one side of the bridge.
🔮 However, one USAID administrator estimated that the number could be as high as 3.5 million — 10 to 19% of the nation’s population at the time.
🔮 Saudi Arabia and Jordan initially rejected landing clearance for the flydubai flight facing a terrorist hijacking attempt despite a terrifying mayday call from the cabin, according to multiple reports.
🔮 Itzhak Liber, one of passenger who helped subdue the attacker, said his clothes were covered in blood, with images of the cockpit and injured pilot highlighting the merciless nature of the attack. “I will have to change my clothes [because] they are filled with blood,” Liber said in a social media post from inside the plane confirming that the terror suspect had been apprehended.
🔮 The specific Blackbird at the center of the project appears to be Tail No. 884, which was on display at California’s Edwards Air Force Base before suddenly disappearing in May.
🔮 President Trump is now reportedly willing to give Tehran sanctions relief and release frozen assets in exchange for a concrete nuclear deal, one official said.
🔮 President Trump, however, has rejected the calls and warned that a slowdown in development could allow China’s AI models to advance ahead of America’s agents.
🔮 “One way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages.
🔮 The agency was accused of promoting bogus visa services from January 2021 through June 2025, effectively tricking Cubans into thinking that they could enter America legally by posing as European citizens.
Also by Ronny Reyes
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 33 articles by Ronny Reyes →
Marisa Schultz
5 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “Dennis believes he’s the ambassador of goodwill between North Korea and the United States.
🔮 President Trump is now reportedly willing to give Tehran sanctions relief and release frozen assets in exchange for a concrete nuclear deal, one official said.
🔮 Putin’s ominous remarks could mean a bleak winter for war-ravaged Ukrainians after the tyrant’s ruthless assault on electrical infrastructure earlier in the nearly five-year conflict.
🔮 “We are honored that Rep. Mike Lawler and one of our House candidates, Mike LiPetri, will be featured speakers.
Also by Marisa Schultz
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
Josh Christenson
30 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 A federal judge blocked the Education Department on Thursday from releasing a list of foreign donors to Harvard, Columbia and other top US universities — ruling that the disclosure of the confidential information could “constitute irreparable harm.”
🔮 One of those sources suggested that at least $8.2 million is now being used to boost incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), while another suggested the sum sent to the Sunflower State could top $10 million before Election Day Nov. 3.
🔮 The Marshall ad, part of a $1.2 million buy that will run statewide on broadcast, cable and streaming services beginning this weekend, says Hamilton let the “child predator” return as a camp counselor in 2006 after allegations by two of his victims were ignored. “What did Hamilton do when victims reported him to church leaders?
🔮 We will hold this system accountable and never sacrifice a child’s safety for bureaucratic convenience.” Several instances of fraudulent sponsorship that harmed unaccompanied migrant kids occurred in 2024. “ORR denied less than 1% of sponsorship applications, a data point which suggests these individuals were able to sponsor UAC with little deterrence.
🔮 “While the government wishes to hold open the possibility of the development of evidence that would support a future prosecution, its own representations make plain that such a possibility is theoretical at best, and more likely, is simply fanciful,” wrote Edelman.
🔮 Then-first son Hunter Biden, who had been convicted of gun and tax felonies, also received a sweeping pardon from his father in December 2024 — despite the Biden White House denying the 46th president would do so.
🔮 MacAdams added: “If I was a Republican, I would be pissed.
🔮 Grassley and other Republicans have alleged that Smith’s moves to obtain the communications may have run afoul of the Constitution’s Speech and Debate Clause — an allegation that Smith rejected in Tuesday’s hearing.
🔮 President Trump is now reportedly willing to give Tehran sanctions relief and release frozen assets in exchange for a concrete nuclear deal, one official said.
🔮 Allies of Mayor Zohran Mamdani are hosting a big New York City fundraiser Monday night for Senate Democratic hopefuls James Talarico of Texas and Sherrod Brown of Ohio.
Also by Josh Christenson
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 30 articles by Josh Christenson →

Topics

America Iran Iranian Kpler Post

Subjects

Iran GPE · 8× Kpler ORG · 4× Iranian NORP · 3× America GPE · 2× Post ORG · 2× Tehran GPE · 2× The Post ORG · 1× Treasury ORG · 1× Trump PERSON · 1× US Navy ORG · 1×

Narrative

With the US providing military protection in the Strait and no confirmed Iranian attacks occurring in almost a week, oil flow in the waterway jumped to an average of 7.3 million barrels a day in September, the highest it has been during the war, Kpler noted.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-28
🔮 President Trump is now reportedly willing to give Tehran sanctions relief and release frozen assets in exchange for a concrete nuclear deal, one official said.

Claims (30 extracted, 7 hedged)

The oil is flowing again in the Persian Gulf — even as Iran is choking on fumes. asserted
Iran → flow → fumes
Oil exports from the region have rebounded to 72% of pre-war levels and crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz is now a little under half what it was before the war, according to analysts. Meanwhile, Iran appears to be running on fumes, according to US officials — who say the country is being “strangled” by the US Navy blockade that has locked out Iran’s ports and caused its trade to free fall. uncertain
trade → rebound → ports
US officials told the Post that as oil exports continue to increase, America’s negotiating ability only increases. asserted
ability → tell → Post
President Trump is now reportedly willing to give Tehran sanctions relief and release frozen assets in exchange for a concrete nuclear deal, one official said. uncertain
official → give → deal
Hardliners in Iran, however, have rejected such conditions and even called on the country to end any cooperation on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. asserted
Hardliners → reject → Treaty
“They are exhausted,” a US official told The Post. asserted
official → exhaust → Post
“There’s no doubt that they’re exhausted.” asserted
they → ’ → ?
“They’re running out of supplies. asserted
They → run → supplies
They’re running out of water. asserted
They → run → water
They’re running out of feedstock. asserted
They → run → feedstock
They’re running out of food,” the official added. asserted
official → run → food
“And the blockade is strangling them. asserted
blockade → strangle → them
It’s almost like we’re like an anaconda. asserted
we → ’ → anaconda
And every time they let out a breath, we squeeze a little more.” asserted
we → let → more
The country’s rial, which was already in massive trouble before the war, has also plunged to a new low of 2.45 million to one US dollar — explosive inflation from a year ago when $1 was worth 42,000 rials. asserted
1 → plunge → dollar
“Operation Economic Outcast has caused the rial to hit record lows,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X. “We will continue to degrade the Iranian regime’s ability to fund terrorism and develop a nuclear weapon. asserted
We → cause → weapon
US officials told the Post that as oil flow continues to increase out of the Persian Gulf, America’s negotiating ability only increases. asserted
ability → tell → Gulf
Oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz is on the rise as ships confidently sail under US protection — with the Persian Gulf’s crude exports reaching an average of more than 13 million barrels a day in September, near pre-war levels, according to maritime tracker Kpler. uncertain
exports → flow → Kpler
With the US providing military protection in the Strait and no confirmed Iranian attacks occurring in almost a week, oil flow in the waterway jumped to an average of 7.3 million barrels a day in September, the highest it has been during the war, Kpler noted. asserted
Kpler → provide → war
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright hailed the increased flow on Sunday and claimed that transits even exceeded pre-war levels for at least one day in the previous week. asserted
transits → hail → week
“There was a day just this last week where over 20 million barrels of oil, more than pre-conflict levels, flowed out of the Strait,” Wright told Fox News. asserted
Wright → be → News
The average oil traffic through the Strait, however, remains less than half of pre-war levels, with an average of 17 ships sailing through the passage every day, according to Kpler. uncertain
average → remain → Kpler
The Gulf, however, has stepped up in other places, with increased flow recorded at the Gulf of Oman through ship-to-ship transfers and at the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. asserted
which → step → Hormuz
The Persian Gulf’s total exports for September have reached about 13 million barrels of oil per day, about 72% of what it was in February before the US and Israel declared war on Iran, according to Kpler. uncertain
US → reach → Kpler
The new data echoes analysts and US officials’ claim that Iran has effectively lost its ability to threaten ships along the Strait of Hormuz. uncertain
Iran → echo → Hormuz
The realities in the water, however, have not stopped Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from continuing to threaten escalation in the Strait. asserted
realities → stop → Strait
While Iranian media claimed that its military struck 19 ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, no attack along the waters has been independently confirmed since Wednesday. asserted
attack → claim → Wednesday
Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority also issued a warning over the weekend against ships sailing outside Tehran’s recognized route, with armed forces spokesman Abolfazl Shekarchi adding that the US would be “hit” if it continues to intervene in Hormuz. asserted
it → issue → Hormuz
Maintaining safe travel through the Strait has also proved to be its own challenge, with at least eight US Marines injured after a cruise missile hit the ship they were operating on in the waterway, officials told NBC. asserted
officials → maintain → NBC
Some 22 seafarers have been killed in 79 confirmed attacks in the Strait since the war began, according to the International Maritime Organization. uncertain
war → kill → Organization
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