ARE GOP DOOMERS OVERREACTING?
asserted
DOOMERS → overreact → ?
This has been the week that a deep sense of pessimism about the upcoming midterm elections set in among Republicans around the country.
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sense → set → country
Not just the political class of consultants and others intimately involved in campaigns — they have been pessimistic for a while, although their sense of foreboding seemed to rise to a higher level in recent days — but also among those who follow the news closely but don’t get down into the weeds of the race for control of the House and Senate.
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who → involve → Senate
They were rattled by headlines like this, from the Cook Political Report: “GOP on Track to Lose House Majority as 15 Race Ratings Shift Toward Dems.”
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Ratings → rattle → Dems
They were unnerved by troubling assessments from conservative commentators.
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They → unnerve → commentators
They were worried by reports from well-connected observers.
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They → worry → observers
They were vexed by stubbornly high prices for fuel and food.
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They → vex → fuel
A lot of the elevated sense of pessimism is related to President Donald Trump’s job approval rating.
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lot → relate → rating
It seems that every few days there is a new poll showing Trump’s number sinking a bit lower; the most recent was a Wall Street Journal survey that pegged the president’s job approval at 37%.
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that → seem → %
The other most recent polls in the RealClearPolitics average were at 44%, 39, 35, 41, 43, 36, 35, 40, 33 — you get the idea.
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you → get → idea
The RCP average is 38.7%, which is terrible for a president leading his party into midterm elections.
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which → lead → elections
The political practitioners know that Trump’s rating is not going to change.
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rating → know → ?
On Sept. 9, this newsletter asked, “What if the result of the midterm elections is already pretty much a done deal?
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result → ask → elections
If 55 days before Election Day, the outcome is already baked in the cake and there’s not much that can be done to change things?”
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that → bake → things
As far as Trump’s job approval is concerned, the answer then was yes, it’s not going to change.
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it → concern → ?
That’s still true now, less than 40 days before the election.
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That → ’ → election
Yes, Republicans are very likely going to lose, but maybe not by the blue wave, or even blue tsunami, that some are talking about.
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some → go → that
Optimists point to the 2022 midterms, when it was Republicans who were in the lead, with some expecting a red wave.
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some → point → wave
When the election came, Republicans won, but by a far smaller margin than GOP leaders had thought.
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leaders → come → margin
Now, maybe Democrats, while leading, aren’t quite as far ahead as they think.
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they → lead → ?
“Many Republicans are believing/hoping in this idea, that it will be bad, but not real bad,” said one GOP politico.
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politico → believe → idea
“It’s possible but not likely.
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It → ’ → ?
Narrowly losing the House and holding on to the Senate is the best scenario.
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losing → lose → Senate
Losing both is a distinct possibility.”
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Losing → lose → both
Another conceded that there might be “a bloodbath nationally,” but urged Republican incumbents to stay away from whatever the hair-on-fire issue of the day is in Washington.
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issue → concede → Washington
“Stop using DC-based messages,” he recommended, instead urging a focus on “local, local, and more local.”
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he → use → focus
There is still time to avoid total disaster: “It does not need to be a train wreck,” he said.
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he → be → disaster
The first politico pointed to one particularly acute problem: “One thing that is consistently true in EVERY survey is the independents are against us,” he said.
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he → point → us
In an email exchange, David Winston, a longtime Republican strategist and pollster, said much the same thing.
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Winston → say → thing
“The reason we didn’t have a red wave in 2022 is that Republicans ran a base election,” Winston explained.
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Winston → have → election
“That netted Republicans the best Party ID advantage in the history of exit polling, but unfortunately Republicans lost independents by 2 points — the key voter group in competitive races.”
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Republicans → net → races
Winston pointed out that in 2010, the Republican blowout that netted the party 63 seats, the GOP won independent voters by 19 points.
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GOP → point → points
“In 2010, Republicans won 242 House seats, and in 2022 Republicans won 222 seats — a difference of 20, about the same difference in the margin among independents,” Winston said.
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Winston → win → independents
Now, Winston concluded, the question is: where do independents go?
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independents → conclude → ?
“They are a center-right group, but currently 44% of them have an unfavorable view of both parties, and their top issues are economic-related by a very wide margin.
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issues → have → margin
President Trump has a very poor standing with that group.”
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Trump → have → group
The voters’ negative views of both parties and their high anxiety about the economy, Winston added, make the electorate particularly volatile this time around.
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electorate → add → economy
So what does this add up to?
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this → add → what
If the situation is as volatile as Winston suggests, that means it could improve a bit for Republicans (although it could also get worse).
uncertain
it → suggest → Republicans
Perhaps the 2022 lose-but-not-as-bad-as-expected scenario is not only possible but likely.
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scenario → lose → ?
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
