With six weeks to go until Election Day, and early voting already underway in a handful of states, the conventional wisdom is that Republicans may be in for some setbacks in the midterms.
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Republicans → go → midterms
As it defends its fragile House and Senate majorities, the GOP is fighting political history, which has traditionally seen the president's party lose congressional seats during the midterms.
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party → defend → midterms
It's also battling high costs at the grocery stores and gas pumps tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, as well as President Donald Trump's underwater approval ratings.
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polls → battle → Iran
But Democrats are saddled with their own issues, from an ideological civil war between the party's left wing and the establishment that has handed Republicans plenty of political ammunition, to a brand image that's nothing to brag about.
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that → saddle → image
Add to that the Democrats' major disadvantage as the GOP floods the airwaves with attack ads.
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GOP → add → ads
Here are six forces that will likely determine whether Republicans can turn back a possible blue wave and hold power in Congress.
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Republicans → determine → Congress
Six weeks until Election Day, and just as the voting begins, fuel prices keep rising, with the national average for gas nearly $4.50 per gallon and diesel topping $6.50 per gallon, according to AAA.
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diesel → begin → AAA
Public opinion polls point to the economy, including the cost of living, as the top issue for voters in this year's midterms.
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polls → point → midterms
That means that the issue that boosted Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories in 2024 is a major liability in 2026.
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that → mean → 2026
And the rising prices in recent weeks, fueled by renewed fighting in the war with Iran and Ukraine and attacks on Russia's diesel industry, are doing the GOP no favors.
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prices → rise → favors
So were almost all other prices," the president argued Monday in a social media post, as he referred to former President Joe Biden.
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he → argue → Biden
While Trump and Republican leaders point fingers at Biden, polls indicate voters increasingly place the blame for ongoing economic and inflation pressures on the current administration.
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voters → point → administration
Democrats last week heavily criticized Trump and Republicans after the president argued that fuel costs were "a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done," as he pointed to the attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities.
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he → criticize → facilities
Meanwhile, the latest Fox News poll indicated that by a wide margin, the Democrats are considered the party that would better handle inflation.
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that → indicate → inflation
But when asked about the overall economy, recent national surveys from Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News had the GOP and Democrats all knotted up on which party would better handle the issue.
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party → ask → issue
"My listeners are looking for prices to come down across the board," New Hampshire-based center-right talk radio host Jack Heath told Fox News Digital.
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Heath → look → Digital
"People elected President Trump to lower prices and improve their situation and people are looking for that improvement," Heath, host of "Good Morning NH," emphasized.
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Heath → elect → NH
"They're looking for Trump to deliver on his promises."
2. Trump's influence
"I'm asking you to just pretend I'm on the ballot just one more time," the president said last week during a campaign stop in battleground North Carolina.
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president → look → Carolina
It's a line Trump repeatedly used earlier this month, at the GOP's first-ever midterm convention.
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Trump → use → convention
Facing what polls indicate is an enthusiasm gap with Democrats, the president and Republican leaders are hoping to energize the MAGA base, which doesn't always vote when Trump isn't on the ballot.
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Trump → face → ballot
While the president's approval rating in the Fox News poll stands at 39% among all voters, it remains at a sky-high 98% among self-described MAGA Republicans.
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it → stand → Republicans
But some longtime Trump allies are starting to break with the president as they face challenging re-elections.
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they → start → elections
GOP Rep. Maria Salazar won re-election two years ago by 20 points in South Florida's 27th Congressional District.
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Salazar → win → District
But with Trump's negative poll numbers a potential anchor around her, Salazar last week released a TV ad criticizing the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement as having "gone too far," and that "Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today."
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you → release → 2024
Meanwhile, on Monday two Trump allies who are in heated Senate battles - Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa and former Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan, broke with the president as they a swift end to the war with Iran.
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they → break → Iran
Watch whether vulnerable Republicans create more distance from the president, or move toward Trump to juice Republican turnout.
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Republicans → watch → turnout
Republicans are aiming to turn what's normally a referendum on the party in power into a choice election, as they spotlight major Democratic primary victories this year by far-left and socialist candidates over more mainstream Democrats.
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they → aim → Democrats
"In state after state, the Democrat establishment has been overthrown and replaced by crazed lunatics and radicals.
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establishment → overthrow → lunatics
They call themselves Democrat socialists, but actually, they’re communists," Trump charged at the midterm convention.
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Trump → call → convention
The messaging is pronounced in Michigan's crucial Senate race, where GOP nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers, as he referred to Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed, told Fox Business this week, "We don’t want this socialism nonsense in our state, and this guy is too extreme."
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guy → pronounce → state
Polling gives a boost to the GOP's "commonsense vs. crazy" messaging.
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Polling → give → messaging
Fifty-five percent of registered voters surveyed in the latest Fox News national poll held an unfavorable view of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), while only three in 10 saw the DSA in a positive light.
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10 → register → light
The Fox News poll was the latest national survey to show that while the DSA has gained traction among Democrats, the group and the broader socialist movement in America face significant national skepticism.
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group → show → skepticism
While the GOP full court press continues, in hopes of swaying undecided voters, Democrats are divided on its effectiveness.
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Democrats → continue → effectiveness
Ty Strong, founder and president of the Moderate PAC, warned that the GOP playbook "absolutely could be effective."
But Shannon Jackson, a key consultant and advisor to progressive leader Rep. Ro Khanna of California, argued that Republicans are "reaching for things.
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Republicans → warn → things
I think the DSA issue is something they’re trying to make something, but it is not."
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it → think → something
Meanwhile, this year's primary surge by socialist and left-wing candidates isn't helping Democrats boost their brand.
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Democrats → help → brand
The party's favorable ratings hit historic lows in the months following the 2024 election, and the latest Fox News poll indicates Democrats are still well underwater, with 55% of voters viewing the party in an unfavorable light.
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% → hit → light
Republicans enjoy a formidable cash advantage over the Democrats, and they're using it in the final stretch leading up to Election Day.
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they → enjoy → Day
While Democratic candidates in many key races have outraised their GOP opponents, the Republican National Committee remains far ahead of the rival Democratic National Committee when it comes to cash-on-hand.
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it → outraise → hand
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
