Midterm elections are traditionally seen as the start of the next presidential contest.
asserted
elections → see → contest
But this year, the Democratic wave might be seen as the end of one 2028 race and the beginning of another.
uncertain
wave → see → another
The sheer size of the Republican defeat left party supporters going through a heavily publicized and highly compressed version of the stages of grief.
asserted
size → leave → grief
There was the usual finger-pointing, blame-shifting, and garment-rending that follows a major political loss.
asserted
that → be → loss
But at the same time, there was the beginning of a realization: If the blue wave was a broad-based voter repudiation of the Trump administration, should the next Republican presidential nominee be a member of the Trump administration?
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nominee → be → administration
In other words, is the question that has animated the Republican race so far — JD Vance or Marco Rubio? — no longer the key question of 2028?
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that → animate → 2028
For more than a year, there has been an assumption in Republican circles that Vice President JD Vance was the front-runner for 2028 and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was the secondary front-runner in case something did not work out with Vance.
asserted
something → work → Vance
Even while maintaining that he would not run, Rubio became a favorite of some, especially in the GOP donor class.
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Rubio → maintain → class
President Donald Trump has made clear he does not want to be forced to choose between his vice president and secretary of state.
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want → make → state
In a conversation on board Air Force One traveling to a midterm campaign appearance in Iowa — this was two weeks before the blue wave — I asked Trump his thoughts on who will succeed him as a presidential candidate and leader of the Republican Party.
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who → travel → Party
“How do you think Marco would do?” he asked.
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he → think → ?
“What do you think of JD?”
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you → think → JD
Beyond assessing the merits of each as a stand-alone candidate, it soon became clear that the president would really, really like to see a Vance-Rubio ticket in 2028.
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president → assess → 2028
“Two smart guys, two good guys — how do you like JD and Marco” he asked.
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he → like → JD
Now, with Tuesday’s midterm rout, both might face a more difficult path.
uncertain
both → face → path
At the moment, speculation about the damage is focused on Vance, which is obvious, given that he is the vice president to a president whose low job approval rating was an important factor in voters’ decisions.
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rating → focus → decisions
Vance also famously opposed starting the war in Iran — the 2026 electorate would say he was right about that — but then took a leading role in war policy and ended up bungling the peace talks.
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he → oppose → talks
When it comes to the war in Iran, Rubio took an early role in explaining the administration’s sometimes shifting positions.
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Rubio → come → positions
If the 2028 electorate wants to move beyond not just Trump but anyone closely associated with him, that would certainly include Rubio.
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that → want → Rubio
One Republican operative involved in the midterm elections offered this assessment: “I think JD is dead.
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JD → involve → assessment
It was trending that way before the election.
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It → trend → election
I think he’s done, and he may not run.
uncertain
he → think → ?
Rubio is hard to figure out.
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Rubio → figure → ?
He’s done nothing, even behind the scenes with close friends and longtime staffers, to show any signs that he might run.
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he → do → signs
He would beat JD easily.
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He → beat → JD
But I’m not sure he runs.
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he → ’m → ?
Some think he’s also wounded by this election.
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he → think → election
This race is suddenly wide open, and Trump’s power to choose the nominee is significantly diminished.
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power → choose → nominee
Given all that, it was no accident that the most serious non-Vance and non-Rubio potential candidate, outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), suddenly became highly visible in the 48 hours after the voting.
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candidate → give → voting
DeSantis was sharp in a post-election news conference in which he touted Florida Republicans’ performance.
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he → tout → performance
Unlike Texas, where Republican candidates for federal and statewide office suffered huge losses, Florida GOP candidates did relatively well.
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candidates → suffer → losses
DeSantis took some credit for that, explaining that Florida was not immune to the blue wave, but that GOP candidates, acting on his advice, were better prepared for it.
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candidates → take → it
DeSantis followed up a morning-after press conference with another in the afternoon, and then two television appearances, on Fox News and CNN, where he offered a cogent critique of Republican midterm campaigning.
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he → follow → campaigning
DeSantis’s obvious command of the substance and politics of the moment was impressive — and it stood in marked contrast to the poor campaign he ran for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
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he → stand → nomination
But he simply did not connect with GOP caucus and primary voters, nor did he create the kind of campaign organization that could win in the long run.
uncertain
that → connect → run
And indeed, in very short order, the campaign of a resurgent Trump crushed DeSantis, as it did every other Republican candidate.
asserted
it → crush → DeSantis
The next few months will tell us a lot about whether the Vance-Rubio duopoly is really gone from the 2028 race, or whether it just took a temporary hit after the midterm elections.
asserted
it → tell → elections
A lot of Republicans are emotional right now, and their world looks like all is lost.
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all → look → Republicans
But there are two years until the 2028 election, and things can change.
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things → be → election
In any event, in the coming months, we will see what other candidates are serious about running.
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candidates → come → months
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
