Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin could launch a fresh military attack against a Nato country, warns Danish intelligence

Read the original at The Independent ↗
The Independent · collected 2026-09-25 · by Maroosha Muzaffar

Quick Summary

Danish intelligence chief Thomas Ahrenkiel warns that Russia poses a growing risk of launching limited military strikes against NATO countries bordering it, using tactics such as drones or missiles targeting infrastructure supporting Ukraine. He suggests these actions could aim to sow discord within NATO rather than territorial expansion. Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky reports at least eight deaths from Russian drone and missile attacks in Kyiv and Kharkiv regions on Thursday night, hitting civilian targets including a maternity hospital and an agricultural facility.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-25, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) warned on September 24 that there is a "low but growing risk" that Russia may conduct a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries, particularly those bordering it. The agency's head, Thomas Ahrenkiel, stated during a press conference that while an outright invasion of a NATO country remains highly unlikely, it cannot be completely ruled out. Russia is increasingly engaging in hybrid warfare tactics aimed at disrupting support for Ukraine by targeting defense companies and military equipment transports within Europe. Specifically, the DDIS highlighted potential scenarios such as isolated strikes using long-range weapons or false-flag operations involving Ukrainian-made drones to create division within NATO.

Written for “Russia NATO Threats War Ukraine” on 2026-10-04, grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
48
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
33%
16 of 48 hedged
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Correction & hedging signals
58.8
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
4
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-25 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Russia NATO Threats War Ukraine
Politics · 4 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 33% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 12% hedged 4 of 33 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles describe different aspects of the ongoing conflict and Putin's actions, but they do not report on the same specific incident.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 35% hedged 12 of 34 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles discuss similar warnings about potential Russian aggression against NATO countries but reference different sources and times, indicating separate events or assessments.”
The Hindu
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 16 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles describe different events occurring on separate days, with one focusing on Zelenskyy's speech at the UN and the other on Danish intelligence warnings about potential Russian attacks.”
The Independent
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 5 of 71 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A reports on NATO jets being scrambled and Russian attacks on Ukraine, while Article B warns of a potential future military attack by Russia against NATO countries.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss different aspects of NATO and Russia's military strategies without clearly describing the same specific incident.”
The Hindu
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 25% hedged 1 of 4 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A describes specific strikes by Russian forces against Ukrainian targets, while Article B discusses a potential future risk of Russia attacking NATO countries with long-range weapons.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 9% hedged 5 of 57 📰 publisher trust 72
“The articles discuss different aspects of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with Article A focusing on a potential risk of an attack by Russia on NATO countries and Article B addressing Putin's threat to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during winter.”
New York Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 14% hedged 4 of 29 📰 publisher trust 64
“The articles discuss different warnings about potential Russian actions, with Article A mentioning a Danish intelligence warning of attacks on NATO countries and Article B reporting that Putin privately informed US officials about plans to escalate attacks on Ukraine.”
Deutsche Welle
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 21% hedged 8 of 38 📰 publisher trust 95
“The articles discuss related risks and warnings about Russian military actions against NATO countries, but they describe different time periods and contexts.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles describe different events: one is a warning about potential future attacks on NATO countries, while the other reports on actual strikes in Ukraine that killed people.”

Publisher

The Independent · 1614 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Maroosha Muzaffar
14 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Ukraine has sought to play down the row as a “diplomatic misunderstanding”, but on Friday South Korean president Lee Jae Myung said his country would take “further action” if Kyiv does not apologise and continues to deny the existence of a confidentiality agreement related to the POWs.
🔮 The letter said Russia "will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory".
🔮 The head of the company operating the Eiffel Tower will leave at the end of the year following a controversy over the removal of female employees during a visit by a Hindu religious group.
🔮 Trump did confirm on Monday that US officials had spoken with mediators in New York, as he insisted the US will win its war in Iran “very soon”.
🔮 Trump expects talks with Iran to resume this week Donald Trump has said he expects talks with Iran will resume this week as “they want to make a deal”.
🔮 There is "a low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border it, Denmark intelligence has warned Such attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said at a press conference.
🔮 South Korea has previously said it would accept North Korean prisoners who wished to resettle in the South, according to a previous Kyiv Independent report.
🔮 Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine has not received a “concrete answer” from the US on whether it will receive more Patriot missile interceptors, which are vital for defending against Russia’s now daily aerial attacks.
🔮 Australia has confirmed that F-35 fighter jet components shipped from the country were diverted to Hong Kong, prompting a security investigation into how the parts ended up there and whether sensitive military technology could have been exposed.
🔮 He also repeated his claim that Tehran was seeking a deal, despite Iranian officials declaring only hours earlier that peace talks will not resume until all of their conditions are met.
Also by Maroosha Muzaffar
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 14 articles by Maroosha Muzaffar →

Topics

Kyiv NATO Russian Ukraine Ukrainian

Subjects

Ukraine GPE · 9× Russian NORP · 7× Kyiv GPE · 6× Russia GPE · 4× Ukrainian NORP · 4× Kharkiv GPE · 3× NATO ORG · 3× New York GPE · 2× Volodymyr Zelensky PERSON · 2× Zelensky PERSON · 2×

Narrative

Finnish leader pleads with Musk to help Ukraine hit Russian missile launchers Alexander Stubb said on Thursday he pleaded with SpaceX owner Elon Musk to expand Starlink satellite internet coverage for Ukraine so it can strike Russian ballistic missile launchers located inside Russian territory. With winter looming, Ukraine has an acute shortage of air defenses to repel Russian ballistic missiles, and Kyiv officials believe that turning on Starlink over Russian territory would help it target the Russian launchers that fire the missiles.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-25
🔮 There is "a low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border it, Denmark intelligence has warned Such attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said at a press conference.

Claims (48 extracted, 16 hedged)

There is "a low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border it, Denmark intelligence has warned Such attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said at a press conference. uncertain
Ahrenkiel → be → conference
He said Russia could also deploy a limited number of troops into a NATO border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities. uncertain
Russia → say → minorities
"The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO," he said. asserted
he → take → NATO
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is facing backlash after inviting Russian president Vladimir Putin to a December G20 meeting in Miami, for what would be his second US visit since the war began. asserted
war → face → Miami
"It's clearly, I think, the wrong path to normalise people who are starting wars, who are going against the UN charter, who are killing and giving orders to kill civilians," said the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, speaking to Sky News. asserted
diplomat → think → News
Eight killed in Russian strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv region as civilian sites hit At least eight people were killed in Russian drone and missile attacks across Ukraine on Thursday, including strikes that damaged a maternity hospital in Kyiv and killed six people at an agricultural facility in the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian officials said. asserted
officials → kill → region
Two people were killed in Kyiv, according to president Volodymyr Zelensky. uncertain
people → kill → Zelensky
The overnight assault reportedly damaged homes and civilian infrastructure in the capital. uncertain
assault → damage → capital
Police said nine houses, a post office, warehouses and dozens of vehicles were among the sites affected. asserted
houses → say → sites
A maternity hospital was also damaged, although reports indicated that patients were not harmed. asserted
patients → damage → ?
Zelensky, who was in New York for the UN General Assembly, said the attacks struck Kyiv while people were sleeping. asserted
people → say → Kyiv
The deadliest incident occurred in the north-eastern Kharkiv region, where six people were killed at a farm and 12 others were injured, according to prosecutors. uncertain
others → occur → prosecutors
The attack hit a vegetable storage facility in the village of Stara Hnylytsia in the Chuhuiv district. asserted
attack → hit → district
Zelensky courts Wall Street as Ukraine seeks investment for reconstruction and winter Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has held talks with senior American business executives in New York as Kyiv seeks private investment to help rebuild an economy battered by more than four years of war. asserted
Kyiv → court → war
The meeting took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly and brought together representatives of more than two dozen US companies. asserted
meeting → take → companies
It was facilitated by Citigroup and the US Chamber of Commerce. asserted
It → facilitate → Commerce
The discussions come at a difficult moment for Ukraine. asserted
discussions → come → Ukraine
Russian attacks have continued to damage infrastructure and key parts of the economy, while Kyiv faces enormous costs from maintaining its war effort. asserted
Kyiv → continue → effort
Ukrainian officials are also looking ahead to another winter in which attacks on energy infrastructure could put additional pressure on households and businesses. uncertain
attacks → look → households
The government said the talks focused on helping Ukraine withstand the coming winter as well as supporting its economy and reconstruction. asserted
Ukraine → say → economy
Private companies could play a role in sectors ranging from infrastructure and energy to finance, technology and industrial production. uncertain
companies → play → finance
Finland asks Musk to expand Starlink coverage for Ukraine Finnish president Alexander Stubb said he has asked Elon Musk to extend Starlink coverage into Russian territory, arguing that it could help Ukraine locate Russian ballistic missile launchers. Starlink has been a key part of Ukraine’s battlefield communications since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 and is also used to support drone operations, but its coverage does not extend over Russia. uncertain
coverage → ask → Russia
Ukraine faces a shortage of air defences against ballistic missiles and believes access to Starlink over Russian territory could improve its ability to identify launch sites. uncertain
access → face → sites
Russia has invited Kim Jong Un to visit the country, the Tass news agency said Russia has extended an official invitation to visit the country to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, a deputy foreign minister has said according to the TASS state news agency. uncertain
minister → invite → agency
Moscow and Pyongyang have drawn markedly closer in recent years, with North Korea sending troops to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine in 2024 and deepening military cooperation under a mutual defence pact. asserted
Korea → draw → pact
US and Indian top diplomats discuss Russia sanctions bill signed by Trump US secretary of state Marco Rubio and Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar discussed on Wednesday US measures that could be leveled against countries that engage economically with Russia and Iran. uncertain
that → discuss → Russia
Last week, Trump signed the bill called "Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026," named after deceased South Carolina Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham. asserted
Trump → sign → Graham
Rubio and Jaishankar "discussed sanctions that could be leveled against states that engage economically with Russia and Iran," the State Department said in a statement after their meeting in New York. uncertain
Department → discuss → York
Jaishankar wrote on X he "reiterated India's interests and concerns with regard to SRIA." India has previously told Washington that new measures to levy tariffs over the purchase of Russian oil could impact bilateral ties. Don't weaken sanctions on Russian oligarchs, Zelensky pleads with world leaders - uncertain
Zelensky → write → leaders
'Low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries, Denmark warns Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against the West in the coming months, Denmark's defence intelligence service said in a new threat assessment on Thursday. asserted
service → grow → Thursday
Hybrid warfare and sabotage on European soil gained renewed attention after Germany recently blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport, prompting European Union members to call for new sanctions against Russia. asserted
Germany → gain → Russia
Moscow has repeatedly denied any involvement in hybrid warfare, sabotage operations in NATO countries, or plotting any confrontation. asserted
Moscow → deny → confrontation
The Russian embassy in Denmark rejected the assessment as unsupported by credible evidence and accused the West, led by Denmark, of driving up tensions over Ukraine. asserted
embassy → reject → Ukraine
"Our persistent warnings about the destructiveness of such an approach are being ignored," the embassy said in a written statement. asserted
embassy → ignore → statement
The defence intelligence service said Russia would carry out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO "with greater consequences for the countries targeted than in the past". asserted
Russia → say → past
It added that there was "a low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border it. asserted
that → add → it
"A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months," it said. uncertain
it → intensify → months
Such attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said at a press conference. uncertain
Ahrenkiel → include → conference
He said Russia could also deploy a limited number of troops into a NATO border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities. uncertain
Russia → say → minorities
Finnish leader pleads with Musk to help Ukraine hit Russian missile launchers Alexander Stubb said on Thursday he pleaded with SpaceX owner Elon Musk to expand Starlink satellite internet coverage for Ukraine so it can strike Russian ballistic missile launchers located inside Russian territory. With winter looming, Ukraine has an acute shortage of air defenses to repel Russian ballistic missiles, and Kyiv officials believe that turning on Starlink over Russian territory would help it target the Russian launchers that fire the missiles. asserted
that → plead → missiles
…and 8 more, not listed.
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