Russia expected to intensify hybrid war on Europe

Read the original at Deutsche Welle ↗
Deutsche Welle · collected 2026-09-26 · by Jacek Lepiarz, Keno Verseck

Quick Summary

Russia is increasingly conducting hybrid warfare against European nations near Ukraine's borders, with recent incidents involving drone intrusions and explosions in Moldova and Romania causing airspace closures. Poland also experienced fires at internet infrastructure facilities close to its border crossings, raising suspicions of deliberate sabotage. NATO scrambled aircraft multiple times in response to these incursions, highlighting the growing threat posed by Russia’s actions which European politicians now view as intentional attempts to pressure both Ukraine and neighboring countries.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-26, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Just a few months ago, Russia's war against Ukraine seemed distant for many Europeans outside Ukraine. Incidents like Russian drones entering airspace or crashing into buildings in Romania were met with cautious responses. However, this summer marked a significant shift: drone overflights became frequent and sometimes led to crashes and explosions near borders of countries such as Poland, the Baltic states, Moldova, and Romania. Russia’s bombing campaigns now extend close to these nations’ territories, escalating concerns about hybrid warfare into tangible threats. Acts of sabotage are also on the rise, making the conflict feel increasingly imminent for those living in border regions.

Written for “Russia Hybrid War Europe” on 2026-10-04, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
38
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
21%
8 of 38 hedged
Leaning
Leans strongly right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
95.1
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-26 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Russia Hybrid War Europe
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly right and hedges 21% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans right further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 6 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss the broader context and evolving narrative around Russia's hybrid warfare tactics in Europe, but they do not describe a single, specific incident occurring at a particular time and place.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 4 📰 publisher trust 78
“Article A focuses on Ukraine's efforts to counter Russian drone attacks, while Article B discusses the broader impact of Russian drone activity on Europe and its change in perception since summer.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans right further left than this 🔴 11% hedged 3 of 27 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles discuss related themes but describe different points in time and distinct aspects of the ongoing conflict, rather than a single specific incident.”
The Free Press
⚖️ Leans right further left than this 🔴 15% hedged 2 of 13 📰 publisher trust 96
“The articles discuss different aspects and timeframes of potential Russian aggression in Europe, not a single specific incident.”
Why Russia has Europe on edge different event · 95%
CBC News
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 10% hedged 1 of 10 📰 publisher trust 77
“The articles discuss related themes but describe different time periods and specific incidents, indicating separate coverage of evolving tensions rather than a single incident.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 2 of 21 📰 publisher trust 72
“The articles discuss related topics but refer to different time periods and contexts - Rubio's warning at a press conference versus an analysis of recent changes in Russia's hybrid warfare strategy.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 36% hedged 9 of 25 📰 publisher trust 65
“Article A discusses a specific intelligence report about potential drone attacks on Italy, Spain, and France from UAVs hidden on merchant ships, while Article B provides a broader context of Russia intensifying its hybrid war tactics in Europe.”
The Independent
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 15% hedged 4 of 27 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A describes a specific CIA warning about imminent Russian drone attacks on Spain, France, and Italy from the sea, while Article B discusses a broader trend of Russia intensifying hybrid warfare in Europe over several months.”
Fox News
⚖️ Leans right further left than this 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 25 📰 publisher trust 69
“The articles discuss different aspects and times regarding Russia's military activities and their impact on Europe, without focusing on a single specific incident.”
The Independent
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 33% hedged 16 of 48 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles discuss related risks and warnings about Russian military actions against NATO countries, but they describe different time periods and contexts.”

Publisher

Deutsche Welle · 322 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Keno Verseck
6 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 But it is also a risky maneuver — if convicted, Magyar could lose his seat in Parliament.
🔮 But it is also a risky maneuver — if convicted, Magyar could lose his seat in Parliament.
🔮 Even after a Russian drone struck a high-rise apartment building in the eastern Romanian city of Galati in late May this year, many EU and NATO representatives hesitated to accuse Russia of intentional action.
2026-09-26 · mixed framing · Russia expected to intensify hybrid war on Europe
🔮 Moldova's Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatii said that the deaths of Moldovan citizens could no longer be ruled out in future.
2026-09-12 · assertive framing · Russia's drone war comes to Moldova and Romania
🔮 All this came to an end in May, when the new government headed by Peter Magyar took office.
🔮 Magyar has talked of a sum of around €60 billion ($70 billion), though other estimates suggest the real amount could be three times that much.
2026-09-06 · assertive framing · Hungary begins hunt for corrupt regime's billions
Also by Keno Verseck
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 6 articles by Keno Verseck →
Jacek Lepiarz
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Even after a Russian drone struck a high-rise apartment building in the eastern Romanian city of Galati in late May this year, many EU and NATO representatives hesitated to accuse Russia of intentional action.
2026-09-26 · mixed framing · Russia expected to intensify hybrid war on Europe
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

Poland Polish Russia Russian Ukraine

Subjects

Ukraine GPE · 12× Russian NORP · 8× Polish NORP · 7× Russia GPE · 6× Poland GPE · 5× Moldovan NORP · 4× NATO ORG · 4× Romania GPE · 4× Romanian NORP · 4× Moldova GPE · 3×

Narrative

In New York on Wednesday, in his address to the United Nations General Assembly, Romanian President Nicusor Dan had said: "We are in the fifth year of the illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression waged on a large scale against Ukraine by a permanent member of the Security Council."
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-26
🔮 Even after a Russian drone struck a high-rise apartment building in the eastern Romanian city of Galati in late May this year, many EU and NATO representatives hesitated to accuse Russia of intentional action.
2026-09-26 · Deutsche Welle
Russia expected to intensify hybrid war on Europe · mixed framing

Claims (38 extracted, 8 hedged)

If Russian drones occasionally entered the airspace of countries like Poland or Romania, even official statements seemed strangely dismissive and abstract. asserted
statements → enter → Poland
Even after a Russian drone struck a high-rise apartment building in the eastern Romanian city of Galati in late May this year, many EU and NATO representatives hesitated to accuse Russia of intentional action. uncertain
representatives → strike → action
The situation has changed radically since the summer. asserted
situation → change → summer
Drone overflights have become almost daily in certain parts of central and southeastern Europe, and there have even been crashes and explosions, particularly in countries bordering Ukraine. asserted
overflights → become → Ukraine
Alerts are becoming more frequent, with authorities increasingly having to close airspace or suspend operations at airports, as unauthorized flights are detected. asserted
flights → become → airports
Russia has been bombing border crossings, infrastructure and trains in Ukraine, but very close to other borders. asserted
Russia → bomb → borders
For the Baltic states, Poland, Moldova and Romania in particular, the war has long ceased to be "hybrid." asserted
war → cease → states
More and more, politicians in these countries are saying that Russia is acting deliberately. asserted
Russia → say → countries
Drones violate Moldovan and Romanian airspace asserted
Drones → violate → airspace
This became evident this week in an unprecedented manner. asserted
This → become → manner
Moldova recorded four drones entering Moldovan airspace, two of which exploded in Moldovan territory. asserted
two → record → territory
Wreckage of another was also found. asserted
Wreckage → find → another
The country's northern airspace was closed temporarily. asserted
airspace → close → ?
Two drones also violated Romanian airspace; with one crashing near the northern town of Solca. asserted
one → violate → Solca
A nearby border crossing with Ukraine a few dozen kilometers away was closed as a result. asserted
crossing → close → result
NATO aircraft were scrambled near the Danube Delta. asserted
aircraft → scramble → Delta
The scrambling of NATO aircraft has become more common in response to Russian air attacks in Ukraine. asserted
scrambling → become → Ukraine
In Poland, NATO fighter jets were scrambled twice in response to Russian attacks near the border with Ukraine. asserted
jets → scramble → Ukraine
Two Polish border crossings were evacuated after a fire broke out at a Starlink ground station near the village of Wola Krobowska, 40 kilomters (ca. 25 miles) south of the Polish capital Warsaw, on Wednesday night. asserted
fire → evacuate → night
The station is used to route internet traffic through Poland to Ukraine. asserted
station → use → Ukraine
On the same day, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter violated Polish airspace and remained there for 42 seconds according to the Polish military. uncertain
helicopter → violate → military
Polish Prime Minister Tusk says Europe needs to prepare Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk spoke very bluntly in Krakow on Thursday and said that Russia was refining its "disgusting forms of pressure" and Poland must be prepared for them. asserted
Poland → say → them
Russian President Vladimir Putin "wants to exhaust Ukraine by destroying its industrial and energy infrastructure, but he also wants to exhaust Europe," Tusk said. asserted
Tusk → want → Europe
He added that there was a suspicion that the fire at the Starlink ground station had been deliberate. asserted
fire → add → station
Earlier this month, Tusk had already warned the Polish parliament that there might be Russian drone and even missile attacks against those who supported Ukraine. uncertain
who → warn → Ukraine
Moldovan President Maia Sandu also reacted very strongly on Thursday, saying that Russia's war was a danger to all of Europe and reasserting Moldova's support for Ukraine. asserted
war → react → Ukraine
Defense Minister Radu Miruta said that not more than a "diplomatic protest" was needed, though he acknowledged that the drone that had crashed in Solca had new technical features, which suggested it could be a newer type of Russian jet-powered drone. uncertain
it → say → drone
In New York on Wednesday, in his address to the United Nations General Assembly, Romanian President Nicusor Dan had said: "We are in the fifth year of the illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression waged on a large scale against Ukraine by a permanent member of the Security Council." asserted
We → say → Council
He had added that as the "EU member state with the longest border with Ukraine, Romania has directly felt the effects of this war through repeated violations of our airspace." asserted
Romania → add → airspace
And he too reasserted support for Ukraine: asserted
he → reassert → Ukraine
"We have said it before, and we say it again: Romania will stand with Ukraine and its people, who are acting in legitimate self-defense, for as long as it takes." asserted
it → say → defense
Meanwhile, there is growing speculation that Russia could expand its war to Western Europe. uncertain
Russia → be → Europe
On Thursday, the Spanish newspaper El Mundo published information about a CIA report warning that Russia could be preparing drone attacks on Italy, France and Spain. uncertain
Russia → publish → Italy
The attacks could be launched from international waters in the Mediterranean and from vessels that were part of Russia's shadow fleet. uncertain
that → launch → fleet
French President Emmanuel Macron said that that the CIA had not informed France of this information, but he did say that the possibility Russia could launch an attack against Europe was "plausible." uncertain
Russia → say → Europe
At a press conference in Denmark on Thursday, politicians and military officials warned that Russia was expected to intensify its hybrid war against the West and NATO in the coming months. asserted
Russia → warn → months
The situation is currently the most serious since the end of the Cold War," said Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus. asserted
Bruus → say → War
This article was originally published in German. asserted
article → publish → German
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