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European spy chiefs have issued a chilling warning that Russia could be just months away from dramatically escalating its campaign against NATO - potentially through missile or drone attacks, sabotage or even a limited incursion onto alliance territory.
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Russia → see → territory
Senior intelligence officials across the continent are increasingly concerned that Moscow could soon attempt to deliberately test NATO's resolve, with one security chief warning that the danger could materialize in a matter of 'months, not years.'
The alarming assessment comes as European governments grapple with what they say is a growing campaign of Russian sabotage and provocation designed to frighten populations, fracture the alliance and weaken support for Ukraine.
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they → attempt → Ukraine
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has told lawmakers that intelligence assessments suggest Russia could launch drones or missiles at NATO territory in the coming months in an attempt to demonstrate that the alliance's crucial Article 5 mutual-defense guarantee is 'more theoretical than practical.'
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guarantee → tell → attempt
French President Emmanuel Macron described Tusk's warning as 'sound and well-documented' and on Friday summoned political party leaders and candidates for France's 2027 presidential election to an emergency meeting in Paris, where Russia's growing threat was among the subjects discussed.
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threat → describe → subjects
But one of the starkest warnings came from Michal Koudelka, who heads the Czech Republic's BIS security service.
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who → come → service
Koudelka said Moscow's next move could go beyond the increased drone activity already unnerving European capitals and potentially involve a small-scale incursion into NATO territory bordering Russia.
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move → say → Russia
It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign,' he said in a rare interview at the agency's Prague headquarters.
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he → involve → headquarters
A man examines a Russian drone displayed alongside destroyed military equipment in Kyiv as European intelligence chiefs warn Moscow could escalate its campaign against NATO
Flames and thick smoke pour from a building in Lviv, Ukraine, following a Russian attack as the war approaches its fifth winter
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war → examine → winter
Asked about the potential timeframe, Koudelka said such a scenario could unfold in 'months, not years,' although he stressed that 'a lot of people are doing everything they can to make sure this doesn't happen.'
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this → ask → everything
The warning comes amid a dangerous period in Russia's war against Ukraine, with both Moscow and Kyiv intensifying their long-range attacks.
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Moscow → come → attacks
Ukraine launched hundreds of drones at Moscow and other Russian regions early on Sunday in one of the largest aerial assaults of the war, while Ukrainian forces have repeatedly targeted Russian oil infrastructure and refineries.
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forces → launch → infrastructure
Moscow, meanwhile, has repeatedly claimed that Western nations supplying Ukraine with weapons, intelligence and military assistance have effectively made themselves participants in the conflict.
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themselves → claim → conflict
Yet there is far from unanimity among Europe's intelligence chiefs that a direct Russian attack on NATO is imminent.
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attack → be → NATO
Officials in the Baltic states which sit on Russia's doorstep and have spent years warning Western Europe about the Kremlin and are now among those urging caution about increasingly dramatic public predictions.
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which → sit → predictions
'We don't see indications of an imminent attack,' said Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia's VDD state security service.
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Mežviets → see → service
Mežviets said there were signs that Moscow was preparing for more decisive action in Europe, but questioned whether those preparations pointed toward an actual military attack or were instead intended to destabilize Western societies.
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preparations → say → societies
Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied Moscow poses a threat to Europe, even as intelligence officials warn the Kremlin could dramatically escalate its campaign against NATO
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that intelligence points to possible Russian drone or missile strikes against NATO countries supporting Ukraine in the coming months
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks with Tusk, whose government has warned Russia may seek to test NATO solidarity with attacks portrayed as accidental
'It's still an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it's just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in Western society,' he said.
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he → deny → society
'We see them looking to attack railway infrastructure, Ukraine support infrastructure.
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them → see → infrastructure
Right now we see a move towards defense industry targets,' Mežviets explained.
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Mežviets → see → targets
Estonian officials have issued a similarly cautious message.
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officials → issue → message
Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia's foreign ministry, warned on Saturday against 'panic on social media' over suggestions that an attack could be imminent.
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attack → warn → suggestions
'If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make that clear.
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that → be → attack
Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine,' he wrote.
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he → keep → Ukraine
The caution marks a striking reversal for Baltic countries that spent years warning other European governments that they were dangerously complacent about Moscow.
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they → mark → Moscow
'Before 2022, we constantly warned our Western European partners about the threat from Russia, but most of the time our voices were not listened to,' Mežviets said.
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Mežviets → warn → time
After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he said, that changed: 'They said it turns out the Balts and the Poles had been right.'
In the months before Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion, US officials repeatedly warned that Russian forces were preparing to attack Ukraine.
Moscow repeatedly rejected those warnings before ultimately launching the assault.
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Moscow → say → assault
CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise trip to Moscow last month as concerns mounted over the possibility of Russia escalating its campaign against NATO
Ukrainian drones strike one of Russian Amazon' Wildberries' biggest warehouses in Kotovsk
Ukrainian explosives experts and police officers examine parts of a Shahed 136 military drone following an air-attack in Kharkiv in June, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The Kremlin is again denying that it intends to attack NATO.
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it → make → NATO
Following CIA Director John Ratcliffe's surprise trip to Moscow last month, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed speculation that Russia could attack the alliance.
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Russia → follow → alliance
'It has nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation,' Peskov said.
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Peskov → have → Federation
European intelligence officials are particularly concerned about the escalating sabotage campaign they attribute to Moscow.
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they → escalate → Moscow
Western agencies have accused Russia of using covert operations, arson, sabotage and drones against European targets while stopping short of the kind of overt military attack that could trigger a united NATO response.
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that → accuse → response
Koudelka described Moscow's approach as 'escalate to de-escalate' - pushing Western countries hard enough that they begin reconsidering their support for Kyiv.
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they → describe → Kyiv
'They believe if they escalate enough, then European countries will decide not to support Ukraine,' he said.
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he → believe → Ukraine
The objective, intelligence officials believe, may be as psychological as it is physical - disrupting support for Ukraine while making Europeans feel increasingly vulnerable.
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Europeans → believe → Ukraine
The Aporia
