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The Danish Defence Intelligence Service reported on September 24 that while an outright invasion of NATO countries by Russia is highly unlikely, it cannot be entirely ruled out. The agency noted increasing risks of limited military attacks and hybrid warfare tactics aimed at weakening support for Ukraine within Western nations. This includes potential cyberattacks and sabotage against defense companies and transportation systems moving aid to Ukraine.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-24,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) warned on September 24 that there is a "low but growing risk" that Russia may conduct a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries, particularly those bordering it. The agency's head, Thomas Ahrenkiel, stated during a press conference that while an outright invasion of a NATO country remains highly unlikely, it cannot be completely ruled out. Russia is increasingly engaging in hybrid warfare tactics aimed at disrupting support for Ukraine by targeting defense companies and military equipment transports within Europe. Specifically, the DDIS highlighted potential scenarios such as isolated strikes using long-range weapons or false-flag operations involving Ukrainian-made drones to create division within NATO.
Written for “Russia NATO Threats War Ukraine” on 2026-10-04,
grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.
Russian invasion of NATO country ‘highly unlikely’ but cannot be ruled out:
asserted
invasion → rule → country
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) said on Sept 24 that the risk of Russian military action against NATO countries was growing and an outright invasion was “highly unlikely” but possible.
asserted
invasion → say → countries
European countries have been on high alert for any Russian interference, with fears that Moscow could target Kyiv’s Western backers as the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine drags on into its fifth year.
uncertain
invasion → target → year
“There is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia,” Thomas Ahrenkiel, the head of the DDIS, told a press conference at which he presented an updated assessment of the threat from Russia.
asserted
he → be → Russia
He said that the agency still considered it “highly unlikely that Russia would see any interest in invading a NATO country, but we cannot rule it out”.
asserted
we → say → it
In the assessment, the agency said that Russia would likely carry out more so-called “hybrid attacks” against targets in the West.
asserted
Russia → say → West
It noted that in the past such attacks had “mainly been aimed at creating fear and weakening public support for aid to Ukraine”.
But they had now started to include actions meant to stop support from reaching Ukraine, such as sabotage against defence companies or railway transports carrying military equipment, the agency said.
asserted
agency → note → equipment
The DDIS said it thought Russia would intensify such attacks, which could also include “destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions”.
uncertain
that → say → functions
The agency also said there was a low risk of a limited military attack even if the war in Ukraine continued, as an attempt to redirect European resources away from Ukraine.
asserted
war → say → Ukraine
“A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months,” the agency said.
uncertain
agency → intensify → months
However, the DDIS also noted that “a build-up of forces would require several months of preparation and will be difficult to conceal.”
asserted
up → note → preparation
Ahrenkiel also stressed that although “Russia’s increased willingness to take risks has consequences for the security situation in Denmark”, notably through hybrid attacks, this does not mean that Russia is going to attack the Scandinavian country.
asserted
Russia → stress → country
“We do not expect a conventional Russian military attack against Denmark,” he stressed.
asserted
he → expect → Denmark
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