The Straits Times World News
· collected 2026-08-27 · by The Straits Times
After six months, the Iran war has reached its endgame – a costly stalemate
AI generated
BEIRUT – The Iran war has reached its endgame: a costly stalemate.
asserted
war → reach → endgame
Six months after US and Israeli forces attacked Iran, killing its supreme leader and maiming his son and successor, the Iranian government is under economic siege, but it still holds power and believes it has time on its side.
asserted
it → attack → side
A threat by US President Donald Trump to impose crippling new sanctions on Iran faces a fundamental problem: Tehran is betting he will not take the final step to break the stalemate: aggressively enforcing secondary sanctions on the countries keeping its economy afloat, foremost among them China and India.
asserted
he → impose → them
Washington’s latest measures, announced on Aug 24, mark a new phase in the conflict that began on Feb 28, shifting the battlefield from missiles and air strikes to Iran’s oil revenues, banks and trading partners.
asserted
that → announce → revenues
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the United States will cut off the financial lifelines sustaining Iran’s economy, while a US-led naval blockade restricts Tehran’s oil exports and access to hard currency.
asserted
blockade → say → currency
“The (Trump) administration is groping in a sort of desperate fashion to try to find a pathway out of this,” said Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat and senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment.
asserted
Miller → grope → Endowment
Bessent invoked the 1944 D-Day landings in France during World War II when he unveiled the sanctions, but Miller said: “To me, this isn’t D-Day.
asserted
this → invoke → me
It’s Desperation Day.
asserted
It → ’ → ?
I don’t think the administration is any closer to finding a way out of this.”
asserted
administration → think → this
Michael Knights, head of research at Horizon Engage, a New York-based strategic advisory, said the blockade may prove more consequential than the sanctions themselves because Iran’s immediate challenge is no longer how to survive economic pressure but how to break out of it.
uncertain
challenge → base → it
Tehran has spent decades adapting to sanctions and endured previous “maximum pressure” campaigns without altering its behaviour, he said.
asserted
he → spend → behaviour
Mounting economic pressure, he said, may increase Iran’s incentive to raise the cost of the confrontation for its adversaries by pressuring Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to push Washington towards a diplomatic off-ramp.
uncertain
he → mount → ramp
Knights said Iran could increasingly adopt the model used by its Houthi allies in the Red Sea: periodic attacks, intermittent negotiations and a prolonged campaign of disruption short of all-out war, potentially targeting shipping, ports, energy infrastructure or other critical assets to make the conflict increasingly costly for Gulf states to tolerate.
uncertain
states → say → shipping
Washington rejects that assessment and says the balance of power is in its favour.
asserted
balance → reject → favour
“The Iranian economy is in free fall, and the regime’s military has been decimated,” US State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said in response to questions for this article.
asserted
Pigott → decimate → article
“President Trump holds all the cards, and we are cutting off every financial lifeline the regime has remaining.”
asserted
regime → hold → lifeline
Replay of a tired playbook
Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat who worked on Iran, questioned whether Washington has the international support and bureaucratic machinery to make the sanctions stick.
asserted
sanctions → work → support
He said that unlike the multilateral campaign preceding the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and major powers, which curbed Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions, the latest measures rely on public threats rather than sustained diplomacy with allies and trading partners.
asserted
measures → say → allies
Iranian officials dismiss the US strategy as a replay of a playbook that has already failed.
asserted
that → dismiss → playbook
One senior Iranian official told Reuters that countries such as China would not stop cooperating with Iran simply to serve US interests.
asserted
countries → tell → interests
Some political analysts say the strategy faces a deeper flaw: From North Korea to Russia and Iran itself, sanctions have rarely forced governments to abandon goals they view as existential for their survival.
asserted
they → say → survival
The senior Iranian official said Tehran believes Washington’s broader objective is to fuel domestic discontent in the hope that economic hardship could eventually translate into political unrest, but that the “maximum pressure” campaign failed during Trump’s first term and would fail again.
“If the pressure increases, Iran’s approach will change too,” he said, adding that Gulf Arab governments understood that squeezing Tehran further could put them at greater risk as well.
uncertain
squeezing → say → risk
It may be the risk that worsening hardship again spills into mass unrest, according to insiders and an Iranian official.
uncertain
hardship → worsen → insiders
Annual inflation reached 66 per cent in July, while consumer prices were 87.9 per cent higher than a year earlier, according to Iran’s Statistical Centre.
uncertain
prices → reach → Centre
Food prices rose 128 per cent year on year.
asserted
prices → rise → year
President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the severity of the squeeze last week, saying: “Our problems have multiplied several times over, while our income has also fallen.”
asserted
income → acknowledge → squeeze
Economic grievances have repeatedly erupted into nationwide protests in recent years.
asserted
grievances → erupt → years
In January, demonstrations over economic hardship were crushed by the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia, with thousands killed.
asserted
thousands → crush → Guards
The appointment this month of Hossein Taeb, a key architect of previous crackdowns, to lead the Basij was one of the clearest signs yet of official concern about renewed unrest, a former reformist official said.
asserted
official → lead → unrest
The Basij, a paramilitary force affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, has repeatedly been deployed by Iran’s clerical rulers to suppress protests.
asserted
Basij → affiliate → protests
That points to a paradox at the heart of Washington’s strategy: Sanctions may deepen Iran’s economic damage without forcing its rulers to change course.
uncertain
Sanctions → point → course
The leadership has historically answered domestic unrest with repression, and external pressure with threats of retaliation abroad.
asserted
leadership → answer → retaliation
They prefer economic and diplomatic pressure to another round of war, but fear an outcome that enables Iran to declare victory while retaining the ability to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil supply route that Tehran has effectively blocked, pushing up global oil prices.
asserted
Tehran → prefer → prices
Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said Gulf governments are unconvinced that sanctions alone can rapidly alter Iran’s behaviour, given the leadership’s resilience and ability to maintain internal control.
asserted
sanctions → base → control
Significant political change, or the collapse of Iran’s theocratic leadership, he said, is unlikely to come quickly.
asserted
he → say → leadership
The result is a dangerous impasse if mediated talks fail to produce a breakthrough.
asserted
talks → mediate → breakthrough
Washington wants Iran to abandon its leverage over Hormuz without conceding Tehran a role in managing the waterway, Iran wants the US naval blockade lifted without appearing to surrender, and Gulf states want the conflict contained without letting Iran emerge as the victor.
asserted
Iran → want → victor
