Washington Examiner
· collected 2026-09-17 · by W. James Antle III
Don’t look now, but the Democrats’ Senate nominee has a bigger lead in Texas than in Minnesota.
asserted
nominee → look → Minnesota
That’s according to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, showing Democrat James Talarico up 2.6 percentage points over state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX) while in Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) leads former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya by 1.8 points.
uncertain
Flanagan → accord → points
Statistically, that’s not a huge difference.
asserted
that → ’ → ?
But Minnesota has historically been one of the bluest states in the country, and its Senate race wasn’t supposed to be competitive this year.
asserted
race → suppose → country
Texas is among the reddest, and it hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
asserted
it → elect → 1988
A Democrat leading, or even being in the hunt, in Texas could be a sign that a blue wave is coming.
uncertain
wave → lead → Texas
But what then to make of Minnesota, where the most recent poll shows a tie between Flanagan and Tafoya?
asserted
poll → make → Flanagan
This is what the fight for control of the Senate looks like in general.
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fight → look → Senate
Democrats are leading in North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska.
asserted
Democrats → lead → Carolina
Republicans are up by just 1.1 points in Iowa, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
uncertain
Republicans → accord → polls
There have even been polls showing Republicans trailing in Kansas and Nebraska.
asserted
Republicans → show → Kansas
The White House seems to be taking these numbers seriously.
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House → seem → numbers
At the same time, Democrats have not locked down Senate races in Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, or Minnesota.
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Democrats → lock → Maine
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) outperformed her poll numbers to win reelection six years ago.
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Collins → outperform → reelection
But that doesn’t explain Michigan, which hasn’t elected a Republican senator since the historic red wave of 1994.
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which → explain → 1994
New Hampshire hasn’t sent a Republican to the Senate since Kelly Ayotte in 2010, during another red wave.
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Hampshire → send → wave
Now Ayotte is the governor, and she is heavily favored for reelection.
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she → favor → reelection
Cook Political Report now considers the race a toss-up.
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race → consider → ?
It doesn’t seem very likely that Democrats will win Senate seats in Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska while losing one in Minnesota or anywhere in New England.
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Democrats → seem → England
It’s possible that Republicans have false hope in some of the bluer states where they are currently competitive.
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they → ’ → states
They are not actually leading in any of these places, not even Collins, just holding the Democrats to low single-digit leads on average.
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They → lead → leads
The initial post-Labor Day polling shows things getting worse rather than better for the GOP.
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things → show → GOP
The poll showing Tafoya tied with the Democrat also finds her getting just 42% of the vote, which would not be an unrealistic outcome for a Republican candidate in the Gopher State.
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which → show → State
Or maybe the Democrats are overrated because of a summer polling swoon.
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Democrats → overrate → swoon
“In the last few election cycles, we’ve seen a pattern of Democrats looking competitive in red state Senate contests during the summer only to fade by election day,” writes Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini.
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Ruffini → see → day
Candidate quality also matters.
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quality → matter → ?
Many Republicans warned against nominating Paxton, who is struggling to raise money for his Senate campaign and has required assistance from President Donald Trump’s political operation, over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
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who → warn → Cornyn
(Cornyn also seems a bit salty over his primary loss.)
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Cornyn → seem → loss
Left-wing Democrats who are at least adjacent to the Democratic Socialists of America, if not outright members, have been underperforming in statewide contests, including making some of these races too close for comfort.
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some → underperform → comfort
In Minnesota, Flanagan is also dealing with a certain amount of backlash against the Somali daycare fraud scandal, which was bad enough to convince Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) to abandon his bid for a third term.
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which → deal → term
Troy Jackson doesn’t have the same baggage as the socialist Democrat he replaced earlier this year, the defenestrated Graham Platner, but hails from the same wing of the Democratic Party.
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he → have → Party
But if Republicans are struggling to win Senate races in states that voted for Trump by double digits, that doesn’t bode well for the much smaller House majority either.
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that → struggle → majority
The one silver lining for the lower-chamber GOP has been that the universe of seemingly competitive seats is much smaller than the national conditions imply.
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conditions → imply → seats
Everything Republicans have done, from the midterm convention to mid-decade redistricting to sending Trump and Vice President JD Vance out on the campaign trail to the Voting Rights Act litigation before the Supreme Court to opening the money spigots in what should be GOP-friendly territory, has been designed to buttress a congressional map that is much redder and less competitive than the one Democrats flipped in 2018.
asserted
Democrats → do → 2018
“It appears to me that the president has now reached a critical mass of problems that are threatening to take this election to a place that the 2026 map and the small number of competitive districts and Senate seats should not allow it to go,” political analyst Charlie Cook warned recently.
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Cook → appear → districts
“I confess this is a lot bigger than I expected, but here we are.”
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we → confes → ?
The Senate has gone against the national political grain in the last two midterm elections.
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Senate → go → elections
Republicans gained seats there while losing the House in 2018.
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Republicans → gain → 2018
Democrats did the same thing in 2022.
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Democrats → do → 2022
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