👤 Nate Silver

2026-09-11 · Silver Bulletin · Politics

Trump vs. the Blue Wave

26 outlets covered this event · leans right

2026-09-04 · Silver Bulletin · Politics

Beware big swings in midterm forecasts

26 outlets covered this event

2026-09-04 · Silver Bulletin · Technology

Why does everyone hate data centers?

19 outlets covered this event · leans left

2026-10-15 · Silver Bulletin · Politics

FLIPR 2026 Senate forecast

no other outlet in the corpus covered this

2026-10-09 · Silver Bulletin · Politics

Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave?

no other outlet in the corpus covered this · leans left

2026-10-03 · Silver Bulletin · Politics

What if the polls are wrong again?

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2026-08-24 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 As a result, Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate are up to 59 percent in our Deluxe forecast. assertive

2026-08-24 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 We also post a different version of our generic ballot average on our midterm election forecast page. assertive

2026-08-24 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 If a poll seems to be missing, we may not have added it yet, we may be awaiting more information from the pollster, or it may contain question wording that doesn’t meet our standards for this project. assertive

2026-08-25 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 Kamala Harris reached her peak in our presidential forecast on Aug. 14, though she’d never really achieved escape velocity, and by Aug. 29, Trump was the favorite again.1 assertive

2026-08-26 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 The podcast, produced by Crooked Media, will officially debut in September. assertive

2026-09-03 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 That might change if Musk re-enters politics in a serious way. assertive

2026-09-03 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 The podcast, Still Counting, will be produced by Crooked Media. assertive

2026-09-04 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 But as responsible forecasters, we have to say: that’s usually not how congressional elections work, and that narrative is outdated in more than one way. assertive

2026-09-04 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 Not only am I profoundly interested in increasingly less abstract questions about how AI progress might disrupt society, but I’m also becoming much more of a power user because AI programming tools have reached the point where they’re now quite helpful with programming our various politics and sports models. assertive

2026-09-04 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 Our midterms model, which we’re now calling FLIPR 🐬 — Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings — launched today! assertive

2026-09-04 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 In the Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight tradition, we’ve always given names to our sports models (PELE, ELWAY) — but never to our election forecasts. assertive

2026-09-05 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 The margin is narrow, but when there aren’t a lot of votes left, will be hard for Stevens to make up. assertive

2026-09-05 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 Next week, we’ll launch our midterms model, with complete forecasts of the 435 U.S. House races, 35 Senate races, and 36 gubernatorial races on the ballot this November, as well as the overall likelihood of each party controlling each chamber and all kinds of other details.1 The model performed quite well in 2018 after the code was basically rewritten from scratch, and again in 2022 after some further tweaks mostly to reflect increasing political polarization. assertive

2026-09-05 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 The charts and tables will be updated regularly, and some of the text will change, too. assertive

2026-09-08 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 Our ELWAY forecasts have relaunched for the 2026 NFL season! assertive

2026-09-08 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 Not only does QBERT now give a QB credit for a completion on a drop, but we also estimate the additional yards and touchdowns (and even the avoided interceptions2) that would have resulted from the caught pass. assertive

2026-09-10 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 The NFL is back tonight with a Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks, and then the Rams will play the 49ers tomorrow night U.S. time in Melbourne, Australia. assertive

2026-09-11 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 I also chatted about why our Senate forecast has moved just a hair in the Republican direction over the past few weeks. assertive

2026-09-13 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 It was pretty simple: basically a table of every poll that had entered our database in the past 24 hours, with brief commentary on the most noteworthy polls and how they’d affected our forecast. assertive

2026-09-15 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 A snail will spend the rest of eternity trying to track you down. assertive

2026-09-20 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 It’s sometimes nice for forecasters when races are toss-ups; it keeps you from putting your neck out too far. assertive

2026-09-22 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 Our Silver Bulletin polling average forecasts a much closer race — with Turek ahead by 1.9 points — though that would still be an impressive result in a state that Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024. assertive

2026-09-28 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 The 2026-27 NBA season begins on Oct. 20, when the New York Knicks will lift the championship banner to celebrate their first NBA title in 53 seasons. assertive

2026-10-01 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 We think it’s an important story, providing historical context on midterm elections that helps to explain FLIPR’s increasingly optimistic forecast for Democrats. assertive

2026-10-01 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 That definitely will not happen before the midterms. assertive

2026-10-03 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 It’s not unreasonable to approach election polls from a position of mild — maybe even more-than-mild — skepticism. assertive

2026-10-09 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 Although our critics might disagree, we seek to avoid false equivocation at Silver Bulletin. assertive

2026-10-15 · Silver Bulletin

🔮 Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 Senate race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber. assertive