The Guardian
· collected 2026-09-20 · by Pippa Crerar Political editor
No international relationship has more power to determine the success of Andy Burnham’s premiership.
asserted
relationship → have → premiership
So you might imagine the stakes for the prime minister’s first face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump on Tuesday would be high.
uncertain
stakes → imagine → Tuesday
Yet Burnham may prove to be a lucky general.
uncertain
Burnham → prove → ?
The balance of risk has shifted.
asserted
balance → shift → risk
Trump is unpopular at home, where inflation remains high, and is mired in an intractable conflict in Iran that has the potential to sink his midterm dreams.
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that → remain → dreams
When Keir Starmer first visited Trump in February 2025, the situation could not have been more different.
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situation → visit → February
The notoriously unpredictable president had just won the US election and was at the height of his powers – and was showing muscle on Nato and Ukraine, and with threats of tariffs.
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president → win → tariffs
Starmer’s “keep calm and carry on” strategy helped keep Trump on board the defence alliance and also protected the UK from the worst of his aggression over trade.
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strategy → keep → trade
But it came with a cost: he was often left looking obsequious and at odds with the national mood.
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he → come → mood
Burnham defended his predecessor’s approach but in June signalled he would take a different direction.
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he → defend → direction
“Obviously the relationship is important to the UK, but not to the point where we just go along with anything they say,” he said.
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he → go → anything
“We’ve got in trouble in the past when that happens.”
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that → get → past
Downing Street insiders expect Burnham to be a bit more forceful when he feels there’s a need to stand up for British interests.
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he → expect → interests
But there is no suggestion he will follow the more combative approach of Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister.
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he → be → Carney
Instead, one source said he would probably take a “third way” between Starmer and Carney, pushing back more than his predecessor publicly and privately, but avoiding open diplomatic warfare.
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he → say → warfare
A second source said the prime minister had three ambitions for Tuesday’s talks: bond with Trump, make the case for Ukraine, and avoid any drama.
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minister → say → drama
Early clues about how the talks might go from the White House perspective have been mixed.
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talks → go → perspective
In June, Trump suggested Burnham was “extremely liberal” (not as a compliment) and dismissively described him as the “mayor of a town”.
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Burnham → suggest → town
The US president remains angry the UK did not join his strikes on Iran, and has attacked the country as a “dying” nation “on the edge of disaster”.
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UK → remain → disaster
More recent comments that he might not help if Argentina again tried to seize the Falklands, and that he would love to see a united Ireland, suggest his displeasure has not abated.
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displeasure → help → Ireland
But that will not necessarily translate into a strained personal relationship with Burnham.
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that → translate → Burnham
The pair have spoken on the phone twice and are said to have got on.
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pair → speak → phone
The prime minister’s laid-back, confident style is likely to go down well with Trump, who has already shown with the New York mayor, Zohran Mamdani, that he can warm to leftwingers.
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he → lay → leftwingers
On policy too, government insiders point to small reasons for hope: Trump responded warmly to reports the UK government was going to “open up” the North Sea (although the decision to drill at two fields has been delayed) and has – so far – been relatively restrained when asked about the UK’s planned West Bank settlement trade ban.
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decision → point → ban
Their meeting will be fraught with tension over both matters, and other areas – such as defence spending and the Iran war – have potential for further clashes.
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areas → have → clashes
It will help Burnham that Tuesday’s talks will be held on the comparatively neutral ground of the UN, rather than at the White House.
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talks → help → House
As such, he will avoid the jeopardy of an Oval Office press conference that Trump could easily derail.
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Trump → avoid → that
Trump may also decide he has had enough fights for one day.
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he → decide → day
His meeting with Burnham will follow his address to the UN.
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meeting → follow → UN
Last year Trump told world leaders their countries were “going to hell” over their immigration policies.
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countries → tell → policies
The UK meeting may end up as just a sideshow.
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meeting → end → sideshow
Burnham’s views on Trump have also shifted since he took office.
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he → shift → office
As mayor of Greater Manchester, he said the US president would not be welcome in the city, blaming his “poisonous” politics.
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president → say → politics
After winning his seat as an MP in Makerfield, he warned against the “divided, dark politics” of the US.
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he → win → US
But over the summer, Burnham appeared to shrug off potential divisions, telling reporters that “everyone says things as politicians”.
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everyone → appear → politicians
The new prime minister said he would “say what I feel” to Trump but – crucially – would also try to “find a connection” with the mercurial president.
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I → say → president
With Trump now weaker domestically, political power in the US is starting to shift to who comes next.
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who → start → US
Burnham is walking into the room with a president who is running out of time.
asserted
who → walk → time
Burnham’s priority may be on domestic affairs, but his closest aides acknowledge that the biggest weight on the UK right now is Trump’s war in Iran.
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weight → acknowledge → Iran
While the war continues to wreak damage on the British economy, Burnham will struggle to deliver his promises of change.
asserted
Burnham → continue → change
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
