In an interview with Global News, Lance Thrailkill, owner of All Metals Fabricating near Dallas, Texas, discusses how rising aluminum prices due to US tariffs on Canadian goods have impacted his business. Since March 2025, the price of aluminum has increased by 84%, and in 2026 alone, it rose by an additional 40%. Despite these challenges, Thrailkill maintains his support for Trump based on other policy priorities. This situation reflects a broader Canadian political strategy to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods from key electoral states ahead of the midterms, aiming to sway voters against Trump. However, during the Republican midterm convention in Dallas last week, the trade war with Canada was largely ignored by attendees and did not significantly influence their voting intentions.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-19,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Canada looms over Lance Thrailkill’s office as a dead, stuffed bird.
asserted
Canada → loom → bird
Mounted above the Texas manufacturer’s desk, a Canada goose, flanked by a mallard and four deer heads, fixes a glassy stare on the room.
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goose → mount → room
An open bottle of rye whiskey sits on the floor below.
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bottle → sit → floor
It is a fitting backdrop for a conversation about another Canadian presence hanging over Thrailkill’s business: the escalating trade war between Washington and Ottawa.
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It → hang → Washington
At All Metals Fabricating, the third-generation family company he runs near Dallas, the price Thrailkill pays for aluminum has risen 84 per cent since tariffs were first introduced by the US in March 2025, he says.
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he → run → March
In 2026 alone, it’s up 40 per cent, he says.
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he → ’ → 2026
But for Thrailkill, the financial pain has not become a political liability – at least not enough to change his vote.
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pain → become → vote
“Certainly, the inability to get a deal done with Canada affects my … approval rating of Trump,” he says.
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he → get → Trump
“But it’s not going to change my vote because of all the other things that align with pro-small business, less taxes.”
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that → go → business
In August, after Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods, Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Prime Minister Mark Carney to impose retaliatory tariffs on products from eight politically pivotal states, including Texas.
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Ford → impose → Texas
“Products from these states should face the full force of Canada’s response,” Ford wrote in a letter dated Aug. 17, days before trade talks between the two countries collapsed.
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talks → face → countries
The following day, Carney announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs.
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Carney → announce → tariffs
With the midterms approaching, the bigger question is whether tariffs are becoming a political headwind for Trump – and whether Canada’s economic pressure will translate into votes against him at the ballot box on Nov. 3.
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pressure → approach → Nov.
With control of Congress being fought over in a narrow field of competitive races, even small shifts in voter sentiment could matter: Cook Political Report currently rates seven Senate contests and 21 House races as toss-ups, including Senate races in Texas.
uncertain
Report → fight → Texas
Dallas offered a rare opportunity to test that political calculus.
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Dallas → offer → calculus
Last week, Republicans gathered there for the party’s first midterm convention, hoping to rally supporters ahead of November.
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Republicans → gather → November
Yet inside the arena, a trade war that has overwhelmed political debate in Canada barely registered.
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that → overwhelm → Canada
Several Texans and Republican voters interviewed by Global inside the American Airlines Center were only vaguely familiar with the dispute with Canada.
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Texans → interview → Canada
Those who were aware of it often repeated Trump’s broader argument that other countries had taken advantage of the US, even as they acknowledged frustration with tariffs, prices, or Trump himself.
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they → repeat → tariffs
When asked about tariffs, some answered they believed America had been too generous to the rest of the world.
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America → ask → world
GOP members, however, were quick to defend the US president.
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members → defend → president
Asked whether going into the midterms amid a trade war and a conflict with Iran was wise, he replied: “No, that’s probably not the best recipe.”
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that → ask → Iran
He nevertheless argued that Republican voters would reward Trump for being willing to fight on their behalf.
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voters → argue → behalf
Texas might seem like fertile ground for that political risk to play out.
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risk → seem → ground
Its economy is deeply tied to Canada, yet the relationship barely registers with many voters.
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relationship → tie → voters
Texas and Canada exchanged nearly US$69 billion in goods in 2025, while 830 Canadian-owned businesses employ more than 104,000 Texans.
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businesses → exchange → Texans
Plastics, computers, trucks and aircraft move north; Canadian automobiles, engines, aluminum and vehicle parts move south; and crude petroleum travels in both directions.
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petroleum → move → directions
Those economic ties create the potential for political pressure.
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ties → create → pressure
Republicans have dominated statewide politics for three decades, but this year’s US Senate race is unusually competitive, with Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Ken Paxton in several recent polls.
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Talarico → dominate → polls
Trump’s popularity is waning, too.
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popularity → wan → ?
An Ipsos poll conducted after Canada-U.S. trade talks collapsed found 57 per cent of Americans opposed additional tariffs on Canada.
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cent → conduct → Canada
Trump’s own approval rating remains low — about 35 per cent, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, barely above a recent second-term low of 33 per cent.
uncertain
rating → remain → cent
Tracking from public opinion research firm Civiqs found his net approval had also declined in seven of the eight states Ford urged Ottawa to target.
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Ford → track → Ottawa
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There are signs, then, of political vulnerability for Trump, but Canada is an unlikely culprit.
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Canada → get → Trump
“The size of the Canadian economy is just not large enough to engage in a full-blown trade war with the United States for very long,” says Dawson.
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Dawson → engage → States
“And it’s small business that gets hit first by that.”
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that → ’ → that
Canada may be able to make Americans pay for the trade war.
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Americans → make → war
The harder question is whether Trump will be stuck with the political cheque.
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Trump → stick → cheque
Economic pain, political loyalty
The economic consequences of the confrontation are easier to identify.
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consequences → identify → confrontation
After Canada-U.S. trade talks collapsed on Aug. 21, Ottawa escalated its response, imposing retaliatory tariffs on roughly $28 billion worth of U.S. goods.
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Ottawa → collapse → goods
…and 74 more, not listed.
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