Marc-Olivier Fortin: The CAQ’s fear-of-Trump campaign starts to crumble

Read the original at National Post ↗
National Post · collected 2026-09-17 · by Carson Jerema analysis

Quick Summary

In Quebec's election debates this week, opposition leaders challenged the ruling Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) leader Christine Fréchette's message of stability. Prior to the debates, polls showed the Parti Québécois leading at 28%, with CAQ trailing at 23%. During the debates, Fréchette faced criticism for her government’s record on immigration and economic missteps, such as the Northvolt fiasco. Her attempts to appear fresh and separate herself from former Premier François Legault were undermined by opposition leaders who pointed out her past roles in his government.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-17, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

In Quebec's recent election debates, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and Éric Duhaime presented starkly different visions for the province’s future. While Plamondon advocates for separation from Canada, Duhaime aims to break away from the traditional Quebec model. Prior to the debates, polling suggested that the Parti Québécois (PQ) was leading with 28%, followed by CAQ at 23% and the Liberals at 22%. CAQ leader Christine Fréchette initially leveraged concerns over U.S.-Canada trade tensions and Donald Trump’s presence in the news cycle to emphasize stability, which helped her recover from previous poor poll numbers under François Legault. However, as debates unfolded, this strategy began to falter, with opponents highlighting Fréchette's role in historically high migration levels and mishandling of economic issues like the Northvolt fiasco. Meanwhile, Duhaime positioned his party as a watchdog against PQ's potential shift towards old habits.

Written for “Quebec Election Campaign Dynamics” on 2026-09-18, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.35 Confidence medium
Leaning score -0.35 for article 16524 (medium confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-09-17

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
50
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
16%
8 of 50 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject
Correction & hedging signals
95.4
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
2
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-17 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Quebec Election Campaign Dynamics
Politics · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 16% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
National Post · 0.87 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 6% hedged 4 of 65 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles discuss the televised election debates that occurred on two consecutive days as part of the Quebec election campaign.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 4% hedged 2 of 54 📰 publisher trust 95
“The articles discuss different aspects of political events involving Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, covering distinct timeframes and contexts.”
The Globe and Mail
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 6% hedged 2 of 36 📰 publisher trust 48
“The articles discuss different aspects of the Quebec election campaign without focusing on the exact same specific incident or moment.”
Global News
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 23 📰 publisher trust 61
“While both articles discuss debates during the Quebec election campaign, they do not describe the exact same specific debate or event.”

Publisher

National Post · 281 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Carson Jerema
24 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Viewers could see the strategy unravel in real time.
🔮 Smith’s recognition that by looking out for their own profit interests, individuals, without any formal coordination, would all move towards producing better products more efficiently and at a lower price.
🔮 King Charles III will be on Canada’s new $20 banknote, unveiled just days before the fourth anniversary of the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Geoff Russ: King Charles III belongs on the $20 bill
🔮 PSPP likely concluded that talking less about sovereignty when voters are looking for reassurance and stability would strengthen his chances of forming government.
🔮 Recommended Videos That is reflective of an elite and out of touch attitude which may sound good in urban Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, but which does not reflect the reality of most Canadians and could end up seriously harming them.
🔮 Guest addresses like this aren’t unheard of, but they have mostly been reserved in recent years for civil society figures focused on Ukraine, which was already a signal that something significant was to be announced, and reporting has suggested that some sort of new relationship between Canada and the European Union was in the cards. Then on Saturday, a 5,000-word Wall Street Journal exclusive gave us a hint at what might be coming.
🔮 It’s unclear whether this might lead to further escalation or whether there’s a path back to the negotiating table.
🔮 This is a good development, as the deal is structured in a way that will strengthen Ottawa’s military prowess, but more details are sorely needed to properly assess the full return-on-investment.
🔮 On Tuesday, the Government of Canada announced, through a series of statements, that it will impose trade restrictions on so-called Israeli settlements.
🔮 Canadian progressives have spent the better part of a decade doing just that, think of the Langevin Block that became the Office of the Prime Minister, the now Toronto Metropolitan (formerly Ryerson) University, Sankofa square in Toronto (formerly Dundas), the Kichi Zībī Mīkan (formerly the Sir John A. Macdonald Parkway in Ottawa), and the list could go on.
More on this subject from Carson Jerema
All 24 articles by Carson Jerema →

Topics

CAQ Conservative PSPP Parti Québécois Quebec

Subjects

Quebec GPE · 6× CAQ ORG · 5× Duhaime PERSON · 4× Fréchette PERSON · 4× PSPP ORG · 4× Canada GPE · 1× Conservative NORP · 1× Eric Duhaime PERSON · 1× Parti Québécois ORG · 1× Paul St-Pierre Plamondon PERSON · 1×

Narrative

While Fréchette tried to borrow Prime Minister Mark Carney’s playbook and present herself as a fresh political figure, her opponents were quick to highlight that she held key positions in Legault’s government as immigration minister, where the province recorded historically high migration levels and later as economy minister, where she was left managing the fallout from the Northvolt fiasco.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-17
🔮 Viewers could see the strategy unravel in real time.
2026-09-17 · National Post
Marc-Olivier Fortin: The CAQ’s fear-of-Trump campaign starts to crumble · assertive framing

Claims (50 extracted, 8 hedged)

For the first time in a generation, Quebec voters were presented this week with fundamentally different visions of the province’s future. asserted
voters → present → future
The framing for two televised election debates on Tuesday and Wednesday was a good environment for Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP) and Quebec Conservative leader Eric Duhaime, who both want to fracture the status quo: the former wants to separate from Canada, while the latter wants to break away from the Quebec model. asserted
latter → televise → model
And both of them offer a clear change and a real contrast to eight years under the Coalition Avenir Québec. asserted
both → offer → Québec
Before the debates, the Qc125.com polling average had the PQ at 28 per cent, the CAQ at 23 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent and the Conservatives at 16 per cent. asserted
average → have → cent
The PQ looked like the favourite to win a minority government. asserted
PQ → look → government
In recent weeks, CAQ leader Christine Fréchette was successful in using the tariff war and the constant presence of U.S. President Donald Trump in the news cycle to make stability the central issue of this campaign. asserted
stability → use → campaign
She was able to recover from the disastrous poll numbers under her predecessor, former premier François Legault, especially among older voters. asserted
She → recover → voters
The debates were an opportunity for her to transform this momentum into durable gains. asserted
her → transform → gains
Instead, the debates gave opposition leaders a chance to finally remind voters why the CAQ fell behind in the first place, exposing its damaging record. asserted
CAQ → give → record
While Fréchette tried to borrow Prime Minister Mark Carney’s playbook and present herself as a fresh political figure, her opponents were quick to highlight that she held key positions in Legault’s government as immigration minister, where the province recorded historically high migration levels and later as economy minister, where she was left managing the fallout from the Northvolt fiasco. asserted
she → try → fiasco
The opposition did more than attack the CAQ’s record. asserted
opposition → do → record
They almost framed her as being responsible for leaving Quebec vulnerable to the economic uncertainty created by the tariff war. asserted
They → frame → war
While it was cacophonous at times, Fréchette, for the first time in the campaign, had to face the music. asserted
Fréchette → have → music
Fréchette’s other problem was that she sounded scripted and out of context on multiple occasions, clearly trying to create clips to be used online afterwards. asserted
she → sound → clips
Viewers could see the strategy unravel in real time. uncertain
strategy → see → time
For example, during a cost-of-living exchange during the TVA debate on Tuesday, while Duhaime was talking about tax cuts and putting more money back into people’s pockets, she awkwardly forced a play on his campaign slogan and claimed that financial autonomy under Duhaime would end with women. asserted
autonomy → talk → women
Rather than creating a memorable moment, the exchange highlighted how scripted parts of her performance felt. asserted
parts → create → performance
The second debate gave Fréchette a chance to recover. asserted
debate → give → chance
After a difficult first night, she acknowledged, at the earliest occasion, the CAQ government’s mistakes before pivoting to the need to move forward and avoid a referendum. asserted
she → acknowledge → referendum
It was a better performance, but unfortunately for her, the Noovo/Crave debate was not her target audience considering it skews younger. asserted
it → consider → her
In that context, the PQ’s PSPP did not need a knockout. asserted
PSPP → need → knockout
He needed to rise above the noise and go back to what made him the favourite going into this election. asserted
him → need → election
While he looked defensive at the beginning of the campaign and the weeks leading into it, voters again saw a confident and direct PSPP who embraced his convictions and defended Quebec sovereignty with assurance. asserted
who → look → assurance
They saw the leader who had taken the PQ from three seats to first place in the polls. asserted
who → see → polls
The debates may have breathed new life into his campaign. uncertain
debates → breathe → campaign
If PSPP reconnected with his base, Duhaime kept expanding his. asserted
Duhaime → reconnecte → his
He was prepared, disciplined and offered the clearest contrast with the other parties. asserted
He → prepare → parties
Duhaime’s influence could be seen in the questions themselves. uncertain
influence → see → questions
One question in the first debate explicitly asked whether Quebec’s social-democratic model should be preserved or reformed. asserted
model → ask → debate
The fact that the question was asked at all suggests Duhaime has shifted the Overton window. uncertain
Duhaime → ask → window
A debate on the future of Quebec’s model would have sounded odd just last election. asserted
debate → sound → model
A recent study shows that Quebecers are ready to question the traditional paradigm of higher taxes in exchange of public services. asserted
Quebecers → show → services
Duhaime is using this dissatisfaction to his advantage by forcing the discussion about competitiveness, a smaller role for the state and greater private-sector involvement. asserted
Duhaime → use → state
While the Quebec Conservatives currently do not have a shot at governing, Duhaime made a strong case as to why his party could hold the balance of power in a minority parliament and be an efficient opposition to move the government to the right and help break with the status quo. uncertain
party → have → quo
As for Liberal leader Charles Milliard, he set the bar high by saying the debates would be a turning point for his campaign. asserted
debates → set → campaign
In both debates he landed a few good jabs and avoided mistakes. asserted
he → land → mistakes
One of his best lines was when he asked Fréchette that if she was that good at managing the economy, how come her record is so bad. asserted
record → ask → economy
He was much more energetic and caught many opportunities in the second debate. asserted
He → catch → debate
Overall, he had two decent days. asserted
he → have → days
With one final debate next week, Milliard can still hope as he might be able to recover voters from the CAQ after Fréchette’s performance allowing him to rally federalist voters under his banner. uncertain
him → hope → banner
…and 10 more, not listed.
💬 Give feedback
🕘 History 🎫 Support