For four years, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP) sharpened the spear of Quebec sovereignty.
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Plamondon → sharpen → sovereignty
He told Quebecers the province was ready for a defining national moment.
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province → tell → moment
But when the election finally arrived, he left the spear in the tent.
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he → arrive → tent
After winning only three seats and not even 15 per cent of the vote in the 2022 Quebec election, many thought that PSPP was only a transitional PQ leader.
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PSPP → win → election
However, not only did he stay on, but he worked consistently to put independence at the forefront of his agenda.
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he → stay → agenda
That steady work paid off.
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work → pay → ?
At its peak, the party led the polls, reaching 38 per cent support, according to aggregator qc125.com in last December, 16 points ahead of their closest opponent.
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party → lead → opponent
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But, ahead of Tuesday’s election debate, that lead is now slipping through his fingers.
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lead → slip → fingers
What looked like a certain majority government a few months ago has become a much more uncertain position.
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looked → look → government
In the lead-up to the election, PSPP has favored a big tent approach.
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PSPP → favor → approach
While PQ leaders in the 21st century have been ideologically more left of centre, PSPP has been focusing his agenda on putting Quebec independence first and foremost, similar to what Lucien Bouchard and Jacques Parizeau did in the 1990s.
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Bouchard → focus → 1990s
For that, he knew he had to build a vast coalition of nationalists and bring more right-of-centre voters into the party’s coalition.
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he → know → coalition
In the years before the election, he has adopted policies that align with this line of thinking.
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that → adopt → thinking
From advocating for stricter immigration to denouncing wokeism, PSPP has pushed the party beyond the centre-left comfort zone it has occupied the last quarter century.
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it → advocate → zone
A staunch separatist, he has never shied away from defending his proposal to hold a referendum on Quebec independence in the first term of a PQ government.
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he → shy → government
He was avoiding a critical mistake multiple PQ leaders have made in the past in moving away from their core raison d’être.
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leaders → avoid → d’être
PSPP’s immediate predecessor Jean-François Lisée pledged not to hold a referendum if elected.
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predecessor → pledge → referendum
He won only 10 seats in 2018 and was forced to resign afterwards.
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He → win → 2018
In the 2012 election, former premier Pauline Marois pledged to hold a referendum only in a second term.
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Marois → pledge → term
All polls suggested that she was on track for a majority government, but on election day, she was held to a minority.
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she → suggest → minority
Bernard Landry followed a similar path in 2002.
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Landry → follow → 2002
Elected on a sovereigntist mandate in 1998 with Bouchard, the PQ government spent years pursuing “winning conditions” rather than holding a third referendum many supporters expected.
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supporters → elect → referendum
Landry, who took over the leadership before the end of the PQ’s term, proposed a 1,000-day timetable.
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who → take → timetable
He never came close to reaching it, losing power in 2003.
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He → come → 2003
Taken together, when PQ leaders allow sovereignty to become an afterthought, when it is their founding purpose, the base and core supporters tend to stay home.
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supporters → take → ?
And now, history appears to be rhyming once again.
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history → appear → ?
PSPP spent four years convincing Quebecers that the province was ready for a rendezvous with history.
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province → spend → history
However, right before the election campaign began, he argued that Quebec should wait until U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office before deciding its future.
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Trump → begin → future
What he told Quebecers is that he does not believe in his own project enough to risk an election on it.
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he → tell → it
One can understand the temptation.
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One → understand → temptation
On the campaign trail, voters are worried about Trump and the trade war.
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voters → worry → Trump
PSPP likely concluded that talking less about sovereignty when voters are looking for reassurance and stability would strengthen his chances of forming government.
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voters → conclude → government
But great national projects have never been built on caution alone.
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projects → build → caution
The very idea of independence rests on the belief that a people can determine its own future despite whatever happens in the world.
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whatever → rest → world
If a movement keeps waiting on the perfect conditions, these conditions will never arrive.
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conditions → keep → conditions
Voters can make the case that if the PQ is not willing to hold a referendum until Trump is gone, then they won’t vote for the PQ until Trump is gone.
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Trump → make → PQ
Nations cannot schedule history around U.S. elections.
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Nations → schedule → elections
Now that Trump has become a key issue of this election, and Coalition Avenir Québec leader and premier Christine Fréchette is driving a narrative that Quebecers need stability to face the trade dispute.
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Quebecers → become → dispute
PSPP has effectively played into Fréchette’s hands.
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PSPP → play → hands
Instead of doubling down early in the campaign and convincing voters that sovereignty was the way forward, he said in his own words that Fréchette’s approach is right and we need stability.
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we → double → stability
…and 14 more, not listed.
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