The sands have shifted rapidly in Australia’s migration debate and Labor has belatedly sniffed the wind.
asserted
Labor → shift → wind
Last year the vanquished Liberal leader Peter Dutton was being assailed by party moderates for saying loudly that the high migration was contributing to elevated rents and property prices.
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migration → assail → rents
Liberal senator Andrew Bragg said, in the wash-up, that Dutton’s message had hurt the Coalition badly in its election thrashing.
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message → say → thrashing
“We love multicultural Australia,” Bragg said, and “we’re not wanting to make people feel unwelcome.”
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people → love → Australia
An example of Dutton’s rhetoric came in a budget-in-reply speech in which he said Labor’s “poor management of migration” had helped cause “congestion on our roads and pressure on services”.
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management → come → services
The notion that the housing crisis was driven solely by a lack of housing supply had become a shibboleth in the left.
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crisis → drive → left
Until Home Affairs Tony Burke stood up at the National Press Club.
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Burke → stand → Club
“Immigration will need to be part of the solution to help provide some space for housing supply to catch up,” he said on Thursday, as Labor aims to neutralise the political issue driving voters to Pauline Hanson.
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Labor → need → Hanson
“We’re both improving supply and reducing demand.”
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We → improve → demand
“The housing shortage we have is not caused by immigration, but immigration needs to be part of the solution.”
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immigration → have → solution
It wasn’t the only striking admission from Burke, who left Labor flailing for six weeks after the last-minute delay of his speech.
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who → leave → speech
The minister blew the whistle on a bipartisan, two-decade miscalculation since John Howard liberalised Australia’s migration rules in the early 2000s.
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Howard → blow → 2000s
“Effectively, the decision that Australia took when we had a demand-driven program was to say that if employers can get the workers that they need and our educational institutions can get the students who are willing to pay, and we get the business, then infrastructure and housing will take
care of themselves,” he said.
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he → take → themselves
The failure to maintain public confidence in the program, displayed in a litany of opinion polls, has created a void that’s been filled by an opportunistic populist who feels so unrestrained as to outrageously suggest that none of Australia’s 800,000 Muslims are good people.
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none → maintain → Muslims
A 2024 study in the Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance found that every one per cent rise in immigration led to between 1.8 to 3 per cent rise in support for far-right parties across 4500 electoral results in Europe.
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rise → find → Europe
Former Labor adviser and migration expert Henry Sherrell last month called for a ceiling of one per cent population growth from immigration.
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Sherrell → call → immigration
Australia exceeded that figure in half of the last 20 years, much more than peer democracies, but just once in the 50 years before that.
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Australia → exceed → that
Burke called out the use of the term “mass migration”, which some bad-faith conservatives on the right have co-opted but it has increasingly been used by mainstream figures like Opposition Leader Angus Taylor.
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it → call → Taylor
Labor hopes its intervention in the migration debate will finally cauterise the political problem and show it’s alive to voters’ concerns.
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it → hop → concerns
Labor knows it cannot win back Hanson’s hardcore supporters, but Albanese’s primary vote has taken a hit and Labor thinks it can recover about 5 per centage points on its primary vote through sustained work to persuade voters they’ve listened.
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they → know → voters
Its opponents will cast Burke’s measures as half-arsed and focused too heavily on backpackers, a cohort One Nation and the Coalition do not view as a problem.
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Nation → cast → problem
With one and maybe two interest rate rises on the way, don’t expect Hanson to take her foot off the pedal.
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Hanson → expect → pedal
And prepare for more ugly politics on who comes and goes from Australia.
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who → prepare → Australia
- Burke’s warning: Is Australia becoming a guest worker economy?
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Australia → become → ?
- As it happened: Labor unveils immigration overhaul
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Labor → happen → overhaul
- What Australians really think: The migration pathways voters want slashed
- Listen:
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voters → think → What
Samantha Selinger-Morris and Brittany Busch discuss One Nation’s immigration plan
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Morris → discuss → plan
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Subscribers → sign → newsletter
The Aporia
