Everyone now understands that growing the economy only by increasing the number of people, while individuals feel worse off, is a recipe for unhappiness and dissent.
asserted
individuals → understand → unhappiness
That's because those in focus groups and answering polling questions complain about the number of people, who they can see, rather than the reason they are worse off: weak productivity, which they can't see.
asserted
they → answer → which
As a result, we now have three significant political parties instead of the usual two.
asserted
we → have → two
The third newcomer, One Nation, is an anti-immigration party harvesting unhappiness and dissent.
asserted
newcomer → harvest → unhappiness
The other two have put on some anti-immigration clothes and have got on the grievance catwalk as well.
asserted
two → put → catwalk
We learnt on Thursday that population growth in the year to March was 392,700, of which 292,100 were migrants.
asserted
292,100 → learn → which
ABS data shows that over the past four years population growth has averaged 400,000 a year or 1,100 a day.
asserted
growth → show → 400,000
Population growth has produced average annual GDP growth since 2010 of 2.4 per cent, while GDP per capita has grown 0.5 per cent and real disposable income just 0.1 per cent and has often been negative, according to the ABC data.
uncertain
GDP → produce → data
Here are the three competing bids for the migration grievance vote:
- One Nation: Negative NOM for three years followed by a cap of 130,000 a year.
- The Coalition: 170,000 a year, or roughly the number of houses being built (based on the idea that each migrant needs a house to themselves).
asserted
migrant → compete → themselves
All agree that we need as much, if not more, skilled migration, preferably from those who can handle a nail gun or a trowel.
asserted
who → agree → gun
That means all three plans impact farmers and universities because the only flexibility available to reduce NOM lies in the unskilled visitors who pick fruit and vegetables.
asserted
who → mean → fruit
These workers are needed because Australians don't want to do this work.
asserted
Australians → need → work
Students who pay higher tertiary education fees are needed because governments have cut university funding.
asserted
governments → pay → funding
None of them is what you would call a promise.
asserted
you → call → what
One Nation is closest, offering a pledge and a commitment.
asserted
Nation → offer → pledge
The Coalition has an elastic target tied to housing.
asserted
Coalition → have → housing
Labor has converted a forecast into a target.
asserted
Labor → convert → target
In a media release to go with his National Press Club speech on Thursday, delayed six weeks while he presumably negotiated with agriculture and education ministers over the impact the changes would have on their constituents, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said the plans were "designed to deliver the Net Overseas Migration forecasts in the budget of 245,000 in this financial year and 225,000 in 2027/28".
asserted
plans → go → "
Treasury must do migration forecasts for the budget every year and they are always wildly wrong because this is the first time the minister in charge of migration has taken any notice of them.
asserted
minister → do → them
Does Canada have the answer?
asserted
Canada → have → answer
Meanwhile two days earlier, in an exquisitely uncomfortable coincidence, the Canada announced a stunning set of policies designed to lift productivity.
asserted
Canada → announce → productivity
It is a year since Canada announced a 23 per cent cut in temporary migration, that is, foreign students and temporary workers from 6.5 to 5 per cent of the population.
asserted
Canada → announce → population
Cutting that to 5 per cent would involve deporting 1.5 million people.
asserted
Cutting → cut → people
Maybe in a year's time the Australian government will also address productivity.
asserted
government → address → productivity
If so, they could do worse than draw inspiration from Canada.
uncertain
they → do → Canada
It's true that Canada is responding to an emergency: the collapse in its relationship with the United States and the imposition of 50 per cent tariff on its exports to the US.
asserted
Canada → respond → US
Australia is dealing with an emergency, of a different kind: a rut of low growth and low productivity, with high inflation likely to prompt more interest rate increases starting next week.
asserted
inflation → deal → increases
This will make life harder for people already in such hardship that they're prepared to try Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce.
asserted
they → make → Hanson
Canada has introduced what it calls a "Productivity Mega Deduction" (PM Mark Carney says they already used "super" last year) that expands the number of investments that businesses can fully write off for tax purposes in year one from 15 per cent to 65 per cent.
asserted
businesses → introduce → cent
The qualifying investments include fibre-optic cable and data-network infrastructure, mining property, oil and gas pipelines and production-related capital, software, computer equipment and R&D-related assets, aircraft and vehicles, patents, rail track, bridges and roads and Canadian development expenses.
asserted
investments → qualify → infrastructure
The Canadian government says this will reduce the overall effective business tax rate on new investment from 13 per cent to 6.4 per cent.
asserted
this → say → cent
At the same Canada's Carney announced a broader plan to streamline approvals for major projects and supply chains, framed as: "One project.
asserted
Carney → announce → project
The government's stated standard is that a project should face one coordinated assessment rather than overlapping federal processes and receive a decision within one year.
asserted
project → face → year
It sits alongside the new Build Canada Strong Act and extends the expedited approach beyond the projects already handled through the Major Projects Office.
asserted
It → sit → Office
So the tax package lowers the cost of investing and "one project, one review, one year" is designed to lower the regulatory time and burden and reduce the uncertainty.
asserted
project → lower → uncertainty
The key reason for Australia's low productivity is declining business investment.
asserted
reason → decline → investment
Not only could the Albanese government copy Mark Carney's approach, there are many benefits to doing so.
Alan Kohler is a finance presenter and columnist on ABC News.
uncertain
Kohler → copy → News
He hosts the podcast That’s Business with Alan Kohler in the ABC Business Daily feed on Friday.
asserted
That → host → Friday
He also writes for Intelligent Investor.
asserted
He → write → Investor
The Aporia
