The two-day talks between delegations from Ukraine, the US and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11 ended without a ceasefire agreement.
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talks → end → agreement
"We have agreed on the largest humanitarian release of prisoners, and tomorrow we will finalize the numbers," Jared Kushner announced after the talks.
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Kushner → agree → talks
US envoys Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Thursday, where they are due to meet President Vladimir Putin.
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they → arrive → Putin
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had earlier suggested an exchange of "1,000 for 1,000" prisoners, or "1,500 for 1,500."
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Zelenskyy → suggest → 1,500
Russia said a large-scale prisoner exchange with Ukraine could take place within the next two to three weeks.
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exchange → say → weeks
Following the meetings, Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram that the parties had discussed security guarantees and that "the first step should be ending this war and ensuring Ukraine's security."
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step → follow → security
He also stressed that Europe should be involved "at every stage of genuine diplomacy.
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Europe → stress → diplomacy
Experts interviewed by DW agree that the main outcome of the talks is humanitarian.
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outcome → interview → talks
"The agreement on a prisoner exchange is already a major step forward," says Artjom Bronzhukov of the Ukrainian think tank Polityka.
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Bronzhukov → say → tank
Pavlo Lakiychuk of the Ukrainian Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI also viewed it as a "very tangible result."
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Lakiychuk → view → result
He told DW that "getting our people back is already a major success.
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getting → tell → people
That is why it is worth continuing.
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it → continue → ?
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A real breakthrough, he added, would be the release of civilian detainees from territories occupied since 2014, particularly people from Crimea, who have been held in Russian prisons for years.
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who → add → years
Davyd Arakhamia, head of the ruling Servant of the People parliamentary faction and Ukraine's representative at the talks in Abu Dhabi, gave a positive assessment of the trilateral talks with the US and Russia, expressing hope that an agreement could be reached by the end of the year.
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agreement → rule → year
I think the Russians came with extremely strict instructions, and it was difficult to ease the tone of the discussion.
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it → think → discussion
But the way the US representatives structured the talks with a view to the postwar situation in both countries opened up a dialogue, in my opinion, and allowed us to work together more productively," Arakhamia said at a joint press conference with US and Ukrainian representatives following the talks.
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Arakhamia → structure → talks
Iuliia Osmolovska of the Kyiv office of the international think tank GLOBSEC cautions against reading too much into the positive assessments of the talks from Washington and Kyiv.
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Osmolovska → caution → Washington
"Diplomats taking part in negotiations will never say that everything went badly and that they have no expectations.
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they → take → expectations
Even when no results are achieved, they will still emphasize that the talks were constructive," she said.
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she → achieve → ?
Experts: chances for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire low as things currently stand
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things → stand → ceasefire
Osmolovska points to a joint assessment by 71 Ukrainian security and defense experts published by GLOBSEC in the summer.
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Osmolovska → point → summer
According to the assessment, the chances of a peace agreement or at least a ceasefire being reached this year or next stand at just 19%.
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agreement → accord → %
She blames this on the fact that neither side is "ready" for genuine negotiations.
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side → blame → negotiations
Russia, in particular, has yet to accept that its objectives cannot be achieved by military means.
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objectives → have → means
"What we are seeing now is more of a farce, an attempt by all sides to put a brave face on things and create the impression that something is moving forward," Osmolovska said.
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Osmolovska → see → impression
Artjom Bronzhukov sees the talks as a way for Moscow to buy time.
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Moscow → see → time
"The visits by the Russian delegation, particularly under the leadership of Vladimir Medinsky, are nothing more than an attempt to stall and sell empty promises to the US administration in the form of grand agreements, in order to continue receiving so-called gestures of goodwill from Washington, such as the lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel," the political scientist says.
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scientist → stall → diesel
Redrawing borders to make Putin feel like a winner?
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Putin → redrawe → winner
Ahead of the talks, several Western media outlets reported on new US proposals concerning disputed territories.
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outlets → report → territories
The Economist, for example, reported on a proposal to redraw the administrative boundaries of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
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Economist → report → regions
However, a member of the Ukrainian delegation stressed that there had "never been any discussion of concessions on territories occupied by Russia."
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member → stress → Russia
Washington made no official comment on the reports.
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Washington → make → reports
Kyrylo Budanov, a member of the negotiating delegation and head of the Ukrainian president's office, declined to say whether Russia had used the talks to demand that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the Donbas.
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troops → negotiate → Donbas
Asked by journalists whether Moscow was still insisting that Ukraine pull out of the region, Budanov said the content of the negotiations would remain confidential until an agreement was reached.
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agreement → ask → negotiations
"The issues discussed in the talks are matters for negotiation.
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issues → discuss → negotiation
The only thing that matters is the outcome.
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that → matter → ?
Once we achieve it, it will be made public," Budanov said.
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Budanov → achieve → it
The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, took a different tone, declaring that "every inch of our land will be returned to Russia one way or another."
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inch → take → Russia
He was responding to reports in European media that Ukraine was rejecting territorial concessions.
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Ukraine → respond → concessions
Putin demands large swaths of Ukrainian territory
In addition to the Crimean Peninsula, annexed in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin claims the four Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in their entirety as Russian territory, even though Russia does not have full military control over them.
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Russia → demand → them
…and 17 more, not listed.
The Aporia
