Officials from Ukraine, Russia and the United States are set to converge in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), for negotiations aimed at ending nearly five years of war between Moscow and Kyiv.
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Officials → set → Moscow
But analysts are not hopeful of much progress in the trilateral talks slated for Tuesday and Wednesday amid US President Donald Trump’s recent engagement with the Kremlin.
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analysts → slat → Kremlin
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Trump has blamed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for holding up peace efforts.
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Trump → become → efforts
“Zelenskyy has to want to settle this war, and if he doesn’t, I think it’s going to be a very bad thing,” he said last month.
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he → have → war
The US also signed a deal last month to buy Russian diesel, which critics say would provide Russia with revenue to sustain the war against Ukraine.
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critics → sign → Ukraine
On Thursday, Trump claimed that the war was close to being settled, and ending it might involve all of Europe.
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ending → claim → Europe
Last week, France said that Europe will send representatives to Abu Dhabi, as Ukraine’s Western allies fear Trump might force a deal that might undermine the continent’s security.
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that → say → security
Russia occupies roughly 20 percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas region.
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Russia → occupy → region
The Russian move has not been recognised by the international community, but Trump has urged Kyiv to cede territory for a deal to end the war that has killed thousands and displaced millions.
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that → recognise → millions
So what can we expect from the latest round of peace talks this year, as tit-for-tat attacks on energy sites have intensified in recent months?
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attacks → expect → months
The two sides have held three rounds of US-mediated peace talks this year, including two in Abu Dhabi.
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sides → hold → Dhabi
Who is attending the talks?
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Who → attend → talks
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will be heading the US delegation for the first such talks in nine months, as the US president has pushed to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.
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president → head → II
Ukraine’s primary negotiator and foreign intelligence chief Rustem Umerov will lead Kyiv’s negotiation team, the Kyiv Independent reported.
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Independent → lead → team
The Ukrainian delegation will also include David Arakhamia, head of Zelenskyy’s parliamentary group; Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov; and Sergiy Kyslytsya, first deputy head of the Presidential Office.
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delegation → include → Office
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, confirmed last week that the Russian delegation would be led by former Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky, the state news agency TASS reported.
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agency → confirm → Medinsky
It also includes diplomat Mikhail Galuzin, spy chief Igor Kostyukov and army general Yuri Zhygarlovsky, the Kremlin said.
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Kremlin → include → Galuzin
On Monday, the Kremlin said the peace talks would not include European officials.
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talks → say → officials
Peskov’s comments to reporters appeared to conflict with a statement on Sunday by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who said officials from France, Britain, Germany, NATO and the European Commission would be present at the November 10-11 meeting.
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officials → appear → meeting
An EU official told the AFP news agency on Monday that national security officials for the bloc, NATO, France, Germany and the United Kingdom would be on site – but it was unclear how they would be involved.
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they → tell → site
“I don’t expect any tangible progress in the Abu Dhabi talks.
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I → expect → talks
The reason is simple and remains the same – Putin has absolutely no intention to negotiate seriously.
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Putin → remain → intention
He remains totally fixated on the [destruction] of Ukraine,” Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian member of parliament from the Servant of the People party, told Al Jazeera.
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Merezhko → remain → Jazeera
Putin wants Ukraine’s “surrender”, which will allow him to subjugate Ukrainians, he said.
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he → want → Ukrainians
Finnish-Russian political scientist Arkady Moshes says Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence are at stake in the upcoming talks.
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sovereignty → say → talks
Restoring Ukrainian territorial integrity, including Crimea, may already be beyond reach, said Moshes, a programme director at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
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Moshes → restore → Affairs
Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014 – a move not recognised by the United Nations.
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Russia → annex → Nations
Moshes said that it would be very difficult for Ukraine to accept a peace agreement that doesn’t allow it “to choose its alliances, decide on its security future, or [that] put limits on its military”.
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that → say → military
Ukraine wants Russia to withdraw from its territory and a security guarantee as part of any deal with Russia, but Russia has refused to end its occupation and set conditions that Kyiv should not be given membership of the NATO alliance.
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Kyiv → want → alliance
Moscow has also opposed the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine after a deal.
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Moscow → oppose → deal
Matthew Boyse, a senior fellow with Hudson Institute’s Center on Europe and Eurasia specialising in Central Europe, agreed that the most difficult sticking points are those about territory and security guarantees for Ukraine.
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points → specialise → Ukraine
“So far Putin has not budged from his ‘my way or the highway’ and ‘what’s mine is mine and what’s yours is negotiable’ position,” Boyse, a former US diplomat, told Al Jazeera.
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Boyse → budge → Jazeera
The analysts agreed that the future of European security as a whole is also at stake.
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future → agree → stake
“The Kremlin agreed to and codified the post-1991 European security order in many agreements and treaties until Putin in the 2000s began to tear them up and in 2014 turned that order upside down,” said Boyse, referring to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
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Boyse → agree → 2014
But the Kremlin has accused the US and its European allies of encircling Russia militarily.
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Kremlin → accuse → Russia
To that end, Russia has opposed the expansion of NATO in Europe, which it sees as a security threat.
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it → oppose → threat
Russia has warned of a direct military standoff with Europe if NATO expands its military footprint eastward closer to the Russian border.
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NATO → warn → border
Anders Olofsgard, deputy director at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, said it was reassuring that Kushner had explicitly stated that “NATO would remain central to European collective defence and that no country should have a veto over another country’s security or alliance choices”.
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country → say → choices
Another element at stake is the future of post-Soviet states in Europe, namely Belarus, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia, said Moshes, the political scientist.
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Moshes → say → Europe
“If Ukraine now capitulates despite its serious efforts and despite the support from the West, from Europe, that means that several other post-Soviet states will definitely be under threat,” he said, adding that Russia could pursue a “tough Soviet-like sphere of influence or even direct annexation” of these countries.
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Russia → capitulate → countries
…and 28 more, not listed.
The Aporia
