Here we were thinking nothing interesting would happen in Congress for the rest of the year—and suddenly there was Rep. Thomas Massie yesterday, introducing articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
asserted
nothing → think → Hegseth
The eight articles charge Hegseth—among other things—with waging unlawful wars in Iran and Yemen despite the disapproval of Congress, carrying out extrajudicial killings against suspected drug traffickers, and ignoring laws that minimize civilian casualties.
asserted
that → charge → casualties
Several Democrats have introduced impeachment articles against Hegseth before, but Massie’s effort goes further: Because he introduced them as a privileged resolution from the floor, the House will have to vote on them tomorrow unless House Speaker Mike Johnson calls a recess early.
asserted
Johnson → introduce → recess
I’m not, you’ll be shocked to hear, a Midwesterner.
asserted
you → ’m → ?
I grew up in New York City, went to school in Boston, taught in Philadelphia and then in Boston, and moved to Washington in 1985.
asserted
I → grow → 1985
That was supposed to be for a year.
asserted
That → suppose → year
It’s now stretched to four decades.
asserted
It → stretch → decades
So I’ve spent my entire life among the huddled masses in teeming East Coast cities.
asserted
I → spend → cities
And I’ve enjoyed it.
asserted
I → enjoy → it
But I do try occasionally to venture out of the Acela corridor to see what’s up in the rest of America.
asserted
what → try → America
And so I’m writing from Iowa City, where I spoke at the University of Iowa last night.
asserted
I → write → Iowa
It’s different out here!
asserted
It → ’ → ?
What’s also disorienting is my sense, reinforced by (admittedly limited) conversations here, that Democrats can win here and elsewhere west of the Mississippi.
asserted
Democrats → reinforce → Mississippi
Not just in Iowa and Texas, which everyone knows are in play.
asserted
everyone → know → play
I wonder if the blue wave couldn’t also wash over to the Great Plains states, to Kansas and Nebraska and South Dakota.
asserted
wave → wonder → Kansas
Yes, I know, Donald Trump won all five of these states by at least 13 points in 2024.
asserted
Trump → know → 2024
So flipping them is a daunting prospect.
asserted
flipping → flip → them
And given the impact of his tariffs and the gas prices in Iowa, he may have fallen further out here.
uncertain
he → give → Iowa
So it’s reasonable that Democrats have a shot in Iowa (Trump +13.2 percent in 2024) and Texas (Trump +13.7 percent).
asserted
Democrats → ’ → 2024
But wave years, plus good candidates, can do surprising things.
asserted
years → do → things
On Texas, I’ll just point out that in the ten most recent public polls, Republican Ken Paxton is ahead in only one, and that’s by a point.
asserted
that → point → point
He’s tied in another.
asserted
He → tie → another
And the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, leads in the other eight surveys by anywhere from two to six points.
asserted
nominee → lead → points
One can argue that gravity will kick in, as it has in the past, and drag the Democrat down to earth.
asserted
it → argue → earth
But the whole point of a wave is that it overcomes, to some extent, gravity.
asserted
it → overcome → gravity
In 2018, the most recent Trump midterm, Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of Ted Cruz.
asserted
O’Rourke → come → Cruz
Read Sarah Longwell’s account of her most recent focus group, consisting of Texans who voted for Trump in 2024 but who now disapprove of him.
asserted
who → read → him
A majority say they’d vote for Talarico.
asserted
they → say → Talarico
Voters—quite reasonably—are unhappy with their Republican senators who have, or their GOP candidates who will, rubberstamp Trump’s tariffs and his war.
asserted
who → have → tariffs
Here in Iowa, seven public polls in the last month are split between three that have Republican Ashley Hinson ahead, three that have Democrat Josh Turek leading.
asserted
Turek → split → three
The most recent poll has the race dead even.
asserted
race → have → ?
I’d put Turek as a slight favorite.
asserted
I → put → favorite
And the Democrat, Rob Sand, should win the governor’s race.
asserted
Democrat → win → race
In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn is running against Sen. Pete Ricketts.
asserted
Osborn → run → Ricketts
The Democratic party has intelligently cleared the field for Osborn.
asserted
party → clear → Osborn
The two most recent polls there have Osborn tied and up by four.
asserted
Osborn → have → four
He came within seven points of Deb Fischer two years ago.
asserted
He → come → Fischer
Yes, Nebraska went for Trump by 20.5 percent in 2024.
asserted
Nebraska → go → 2024
But it’s in play.
asserted
it → ’ → play
Meanwhile, in South Dakota, the Democrats have also organized themselves to step aside in favor of an independent candidate.
asserted
Democrats → organize → candidate
…and 86 more, not listed.
The Aporia
