William Kristol writes about his recent visit to Iowa City where he spoke at the University of Iowa, reflecting on how different life is outside the East Coast cities. He discusses the possibility of Democrats potentially winning in Midwestern states like Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota during wave election years, despite President Donald Trump's strong wins in these areas in 2024. Kristol acknowledges that while flipping some red states remains daunting, recent polling data suggests a closer race, particularly in Texas where the Democratic nominee James Talarico is leading in most public polls.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-16,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Congress returned from its August recess with just four voting days left in the House and slightly more time in the Senate before members leave to campaign ahead of the November midterm elections. This short session means little legislation of broad national consequence is expected to pass, leaving unresolved issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and Social Security reform for future sessions or administrations.
Lawmakers are focusing on passing messaging bills they can use during their campaigns rather than addressing urgent legislative priorities like AI regulation, data center power costs, and military funding. The House will vote on the Ratepayer Protection Act to require tech companies to pay for infrastructure needed to construct data centers, which could help vulnerable incumbents address voter concerns about rising energy costs tied to these facilities.
Meanwhile, the Senate plans to take up bills related to cryptocurrency market structure and college sports reforms. However, these efforts may be delayed due to ongoing disputes over ethics rules governing former President Donald Trump and his family's influence on legislation. Additionally, the House faces time-sensitive issues like annual defense policy bill reauthorization, warrantless surveillance program extensions, and farm bill renewals that will likely need to wait until after the elections.
Republican Thomas Massie introduced a resolution on Tuesday calling for Secretary of War Pete Hegseth's impeachment over his handling of military actions in Iran, arguing it constitutes "high crimes and misdemeanors" as Congress never formally declared war in the region. This procedural move forces an immediate vote without going through committee review, reflecting internal party tensions amid Trump-era policies and candidates' election-year maneuvering.
Written for “Congress Midterm Recess Planning” on 2026-09-17,
grounded in this article and the 15 other(s) covering the same event.
Here we were thinking nothing interesting would happen in Congress for the rest of the year—and suddenly there was Rep. Thomas Massie yesterday, introducing articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
asserted
nothing → think → Hegseth
The eight articles charge Hegseth—among other things—with waging unlawful wars in Iran and Yemen despite the disapproval of Congress, carrying out extrajudicial killings against suspected drug traffickers, and ignoring laws that minimize civilian casualties.
asserted
that → charge → casualties
Several Democrats have introduced impeachment articles against Hegseth before, but Massie’s effort goes further: Because he introduced them as a privileged resolution from the floor, the House will have to vote on them tomorrow unless House Speaker Mike Johnson calls a recess early.
asserted
Johnson → introduce → recess
I’m not, you’ll be shocked to hear, a Midwesterner.
asserted
you → ’m → ?
I grew up in New York City, went to school in Boston, taught in Philadelphia and then in Boston, and moved to Washington in 1985.
asserted
I → grow → 1985
That was supposed to be for a year.
asserted
That → suppose → year
It’s now stretched to four decades.
asserted
It → stretch → decades
So I’ve spent my entire life among the huddled masses in teeming East Coast cities.
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I → spend → cities
And I’ve enjoyed it.
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I → enjoy → it
But I do try occasionally to venture out of the Acela corridor to see what’s up in the rest of America.
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what → try → America
And so I’m writing from Iowa City, where I spoke at the University of Iowa last night.
asserted
I → write → Iowa
It’s different out here!
asserted
It → ’ → ?
What’s also disorienting is my sense, reinforced by (admittedly limited) conversations here, that Democrats can win here and elsewhere west of the Mississippi.
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Democrats → reinforce → Mississippi
Not just in Iowa and Texas, which everyone knows are in play.
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everyone → know → play
I wonder if the blue wave couldn’t also wash over to the Great Plains states, to Kansas and Nebraska and South Dakota.
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wave → wonder → Kansas
Yes, I know, Donald Trump won all five of these states by at least 13 points in 2024.
asserted
Trump → know → 2024
So flipping them is a daunting prospect.
asserted
flipping → flip → them
And given the impact of his tariffs and the gas prices in Iowa, he may have fallen further out here.
uncertain
he → give → Iowa
So it’s reasonable that Democrats have a shot in Iowa (Trump +13.2 percent in 2024) and Texas (Trump +13.7 percent).
asserted
Democrats → ’ → 2024
But wave years, plus good candidates, can do surprising things.
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years → do → things
On Texas, I’ll just point out that in the ten most recent public polls, Republican Ken Paxton is ahead in only one, and that’s by a point.
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that → point → point
He’s tied in another.
asserted
He → tie → another
And the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, leads in the other eight surveys by anywhere from two to six points.
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nominee → lead → points
One can argue that gravity will kick in, as it has in the past, and drag the Democrat down to earth.
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it → argue → earth
But the whole point of a wave is that it overcomes, to some extent, gravity.
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it → overcome → gravity
In 2018, the most recent Trump midterm, Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of Ted Cruz.
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O’Rourke → come → Cruz
Read Sarah Longwell’s account of her most recent focus group, consisting of Texans who voted for Trump in 2024 but who now disapprove of him.
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who → read → him
A majority say they’d vote for Talarico.
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they → say → Talarico
Voters—quite reasonably—are unhappy with their Republican senators who have, or their GOP candidates who will, rubberstamp Trump’s tariffs and his war.
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who → have → tariffs
Here in Iowa, seven public polls in the last month are split between three that have Republican Ashley Hinson ahead, three that have Democrat Josh Turek leading.
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Turek → split → three
The most recent poll has the race dead even.
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race → have → ?
I’d put Turek as a slight favorite.
asserted
I → put → favorite
And the Democrat, Rob Sand, should win the governor’s race.
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Democrat → win → race
In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn is running against Sen. Pete Ricketts.
asserted
Osborn → run → Ricketts
The Democratic party has intelligently cleared the field for Osborn.
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party → clear → Osborn
The two most recent polls there have Osborn tied and up by four.
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Osborn → have → four
He came within seven points of Deb Fischer two years ago.
asserted
He → come → Fischer
Yes, Nebraska went for Trump by 20.5 percent in 2024.
asserted
Nebraska → go → 2024
But it’s in play.
asserted
it → ’ → play
Meanwhile, in South Dakota, the Democrats have also organized themselves to step aside in favor of an independent candidate.
asserted
Democrats → organize → candidate
…and 86 more, not listed.
The Aporia
