Democrats won a historic victory in Tuesday’s election.
asserted
Democrats → win → election
It was the best possible outcome — Donald Trump has made so many mistakes, engaged in such flagrant corruption, and committed such egregious acts that for his party not to have been punished at the polls would have boded poorly for America’s future.
asserted
punished → make → future
But as it is, I’m cautiously encouraged — normal Americans reasserted control, delivering a rebuke to the extremists who had used a moment of division and chaos to seize the commanding heights of power in our country.
asserted
who → ’m → country
Obama’s midterm loss in 2010 and Trump’s in 2018 don’t even come close.
asserted
Trump → come → 2018
You have to go all the way back to 1974 and 1976 to find wipeouts like this:
Wait…1974 and 1976?
asserted
You → have → this
1974 was the year Nixon resigned due to Watergate, and 1976 was the year Jimmy Carter was elected president.
asserted
Carter → resign → Watergate
Did either of those election victories herald an era of Democratic dominance in America?
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either → herald → America
No, they did not.
asserted
they → do → ?
In fact, the GOP bounced back shortly afterwards, dominated American politics in the 1980s, and pulled the country to the right for decades.
asserted
GOP → bounce → decades
So before they go patting themselves on the back for winning everything, forever, Democrats should think about that history of brief success followed by long-term failure, and ponder how to avoid a similar outcome this time.
asserted
Democrats → go → outcome
After Hannibal won a great victory, one of his generals is said to have told him: “You know how to win a victory, Hannibal; you do not know how to use it.”
asserted
you → win → it
The Democrats must figure out how to use their victory.
asserted
Democrats → figure → victory
That’s a tricky question.
asserted
That → ’ → ?
Democrats now control Congress, but that doesn’t mean they’re in power;
asserted
they → control → power
Trump can and will veto most legislation they pass.
asserted
they → veto → legislation
With their limited capabilities, the Dems have to do the following, all at once:
Block as many of Trump’s bad policies as possible
Keep the spotlight on Trump even though he’s now a lame duck
Demonstrate a clear ideology and a clear plan to the American people despite not being able to pass much legislation
That’s possible to do, especially if — as seems very likely — Trump keeps being corrupt and making mistakes and alienating the country.
asserted
Trump → have → country
The Dems won the 2006 midterms, and went on to put Obama in the White House two years later.
asserted
Dems → win → House
Trump seems like he’s on a similar track:
asserted
he → seem → track
But it doesn’t always happen — the GOP lost to Obama in 2012 after their big midterm wave in 2010, and the Dems barely eked out a victory over Trump in 2020 (with a lot of help from Covid) after winning the midterms in 2018.
asserted
Dems → happen → 2018
If Democrats are going to translate midterm success into presidential victory — to say nothing of long-term partisan dominance — they’re going to have to work hard at rebuilding their brand, their sales pitch, and their policy platform after the disastrous years of 2016-2024.
asserted
they → go → 2016
This was a center-left victory
One important point, which a lot of other people have already made, is that the big Democratic wave was mostly won by moderate Democrats.
asserted
wave → make → Democrats
Here’s the NYT:
asserted
NYT → ’ → ?
For much of the midterm campaign, progressive Democratic insurgents commanded the spotlight…
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insurgents → command → spotlight
But the path to Democrats’ sweeping victory this week, when they seized control of both chambers of Congress, was paved overwhelmingly by moderates who had spent months persuading voters in Republican-leaning states and competitive congressional districts…
asserted
who → sweep → states
The scale of moderate gains was reflected in the growing ranks of the centrist groups on Capitol Hill.
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scale → reflect → Hill
The Blue Dog Coalition, a caucus of moderate and conservative Democrats in the House, announced on Wednesday that it had added at least 14 to its ranks, nearly doubling in size, and other centrist groups including the New Democrats and Problem Solvers strengthened their numbers substantially.
asserted
groups → announce → numbers
Far-left types tend to win by unseating moderate Dems in primaries in deep-blue districts and states, while moderates tend to win in swing districts and states; thus, when a wave is bigger and the Dems win more swing districts and states, moderates tend to do proportionally better than leftists.
asserted
moderates → tend → leftists
However, there are signs that this election cycle actually represented a broad endorsement of moderate center-leftism.
asserted
cycle → be → leftism
Ballot initiatives have rejected various leftist policies all over the country, and leftist candidates have been losing to center-left ones in deep blue strongholds:
asserted
candidates → reject → strongholds
And leftist candidates have generally performed more weakly at the ballot box:
What’s more, many of the most prominent Democrats who won high-profile races this year have explicitly endorsed centrist positions on key issues:
Nor have many prominent Dems done the kind of “woke” cultural signaling that they regularly did in 2020 and 2022.
asserted
they → perform → 2020
First, the “woke” cultural wave of the 2010s, which peaked in 2020-21, continues to slowly recede.
asserted
which → peak → 2020
You can see this in continued voter support for conservative positions on cultural issues like trans sports:
asserted
You → see → sports
Second, voters have not yet embraced the socialist movement, as demonstrated by the relatively weak performances of Bernie Sanders-endorsed candidates and the failure of the billionaire tax in California.
asserted
voters → embrace → California
That means that Democrats understand that this 2026 midterm victory is a contingent and fragile one.
asserted
victory → mean → ?
Normal Americans have risen from their apathetic torpor and their jaded hyperpartisan paralysis, and are prepared to punish extremists of either party:
asserted
Americans → rise → party
The normie uprising has brought center-left Dems to the fore, and it has also forced more progressive Dems to tone down or strategically compromise their more extreme positions.
asserted
it → bring → positions
But moderation itself is neither an ideology nor a policy program, and herein lies the big challenge for the Dems over the next year and a half or so.
asserted
challenge → lie → year
Right now, my assessment is that most Democratic voters — including Independents and swing voters who lean toward the Dems — aren’t thinking very hard about how the country ought to be governed or what the future of America should look like.
asserted
future → include → America
They’re simply thinking short-term thoughts about the immediate threat.
asserted
They → think → threat
They hate Trump and MAGA, and they want them gone, and it’s really as simple as that.
asserted
it → hate → that
…and 97 more, not listed.
The Aporia
