John Ivison: Churchill Falls deal will outlast any damage Trump inflicts

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Ivison, J. (2026, August 19). John Ivison: Churchill Falls deal will outlast any damage Trump inflicts. National Post. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-churchill-falls-deal-will-outlast-any-damage-trump-inflicts

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

National Post · collected 2026-08-19 · by John Ivison analysis

Quick Summary

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a multi-billion-dollar clean energy deal with Quebec on Monday in St. John's, N.L., which will triple the generating capacity of the Churchill Falls hydro-electric project and provide enough power to light, heat and cool Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver combined. The deal replaces an outdated 1969 contract that heavily favored Hydro-Quebec at Newfoundland and Labrador's expense, and will see average rates paid per kilowatt hour rise from 0.2 cents to around 6 cents. Quebec will benefit by securing additional clean power until 2077, while Ottawa is committing $10 billion in financing for the project, which includes expanding the Churchill Falls plant and constructing a transmission line. The deal was made in part to counterbalance the threat of US tariffs on Canadian products imposed by President Donald Trump.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-08-19, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Prime Minister Mark Carney, along with N.L. Premier Tony Wakeham and Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette, announced a new agreement on Churchill Falls and other electricity projects in Labrador on Monday. The deal is valued at nearly $70 billion, with the federal government contributing $10 billion in financing, making it the largest clean energy investment in North American history. The money will be used to upgrade and expand the Churchill Falls generating station, develop a new hydroelectric project at Gull Island, build transmission lines, and implement a 2,000 megawatts onshore wind energy project in Labrador. This deal will triple the generating capacity of Churchill Falls, providing enough power to light, heat, and cool all homes in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver combined. The agreement is not yet finalized and will be held until March 2027, before it can be ratified by Quebec's government. For Quebec, this deal means securing additional clean power for the next 50 years at a stable price of around 6 cents per kilowatt hour, which is still lower than any alternative source of power. This agreement has significant implications for the upcoming Quebec provincial election and may influence how parties approach energy policy in the province.

Written for “Churchill Falls Deal” on 2026-10-16, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Churchill Falls Deal
Politics · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
CBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 4 of 40 📰 publisher trust 77
“Both articles describe the same announcement in St. John's, N.L., made by Prime Minister Mark Carney on Monday about a multi-billion-dollar clean energy deal with Quebec to upgrade and expand the Churchill Falls hydro-electric project.”
Global News
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 6 📰 publisher trust 63
“Article A discusses trade negotiations between Canada and the US, while Article B reports on a separate announcement in St. John's, NL about a clean energy deal with Quebec”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 21% hedged 5 of 24 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A discusses a clean energy deal with Quebec at Churchill Falls, while Article B mentions a tariff pause and a reached 'deal' in general terms without specifying what it is about”
The Bulwark
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 17% hedged 1 of 6
“Article A describes a multi-billion-dollar clean energy deal announcement on Monday, while Article B mentions negotiations falling apart due to Trump's tariffs, with no mention of a specific deal or date”
National Post
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 24 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A mentions a 'multi-billion-dollar clean energy deal' announced in St. John's, N.L., while Article B refers to a 'proposed trade agreement with the U.S.' that collapsed on Friday”
CBC News
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 12% hedged 6 of 52 📰 publisher trust 77
“Article A discusses new US tariffs on Canadian businesses, while Article B mentions a separate clean energy deal with Quebec announced in St. John's”
CBC News
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 14% hedged 6 of 44 📰 publisher trust 77
“Article A describes Trump pausing tariffs on Canadian goods for 3 days, while Article B mentions a separate deal between Canada and Quebec regarding the Churchill Falls hydro-electric project”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 17% hedged 3 of 18 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles describe different events, with Article A focusing on a trade deal between Canada and the US to avoid tariffs, while Article B focuses on a clean energy deal for the Churchill Falls hydro-electric project”
NBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 3 of 34 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A mentions tariffs being paused for a deal on comprehensive market access, while Article B discusses a separate clean energy deal between Canada and Quebec”
National Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 2% hedged 1 of 48 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A describes a positive announcement about the Churchill Falls hydro-electric project deal, while Article B mentions that trade talks collapsed over disputed terms and new tariffs were triggered”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
40
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
3 of 40 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
60/100
National Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-08-19 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

National Post · 941 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

John Ivison
13 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 When Sentinel R&D, a Hamilton, Ont.-based defence firm, signed a deal with a Ukrainian drone firm, Airlogix, in May, the response from the Kremlin was unusual.
🔮 A meeting to that end was attended by representatives of 70 institutions on Monday, with the goal of creating a national strategy that might turn the tide. Gabriel Miller, president of Universities Canada, said universities have done work at ground level to improve policies to protect Jews and fight antisemitism by beefing up campus security, improving training in diversity offices, and so on.
🔮 LFI politicians turned up to support some protests, including the left-wing mayor of Saint Denis in the northwestern suburbs of Paris, Bally Bagayoko, who was filmed dancing with students, while garbage cans burned in the background.
🔮 The first was the people of Alberta, who will be asked on Oct. 19 to vote on whether the province should remain in Canada, or whether it should negotiate to hold a binding referendum on independence.
🔮 The Conservatives will try to spin the departure of Scott Aitchison, the popular MP for Parry Sound–Muskoka, as being of negligible importance.
🔮 U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters in the White House on Monday that he thinks a trade deal with Canada that gets rid of tariffs will be struck, possibly within three to four weeks.
🔮 (But) we’re trusting this man with massive changes that will accelerate projects at the cost of Indigenous rights, at the cost of the environment, and at the cost of protections for workers, including the fundamental right to strike.”
🔮 Sooner or later, he will come down to earth with a bump – quite possibly because he has decided to expend some of the political capital he has accumulated.
🔮 When Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, meets with Prime Minister Mark Carney in Ottawa next week, the subject of farmed salmon will be high on the agenda.
🔮 But Carney seems supremely uninterested in Parliament and likely views an election campaign as a distraction. The same could not be said for the political people around him.
Also by John Ivison
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 13 articles by John Ivison →

Topics

Canada N.L. Quebec St. John’s Toronto

Subjects

Carney PERSON · 7× Canada GPE · 4× Quebec GPE · 3× Trump PERSON · 3× Fréchette PERSON · 2× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Mark Carney PERSON · 1× N.L. GPE · 1× St. John’s ORG · 1× Toronto GPE · 1×

Narrative

Ottawa will expand the Churchill Falls plant; construct a transmission line to the Labrador West mining trough; support the construction of a new dam at Gull Island; build a 2,000 MW onshore wind energy project; and refer the whole series of interlocking investments to the Major Projects Office to coordinate funding and accelerate permitting.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-08-19
🔮 Rather, according to Prime Minister Mark Carney, the most consequential event was Monday’s announcement in St. John’s, N.L., of a multi-billion-dollar clean energy deal with Quebec that will see a tripling of the generating capacity of the Churchill Falls hydro-electric project.
2026-08-19 · National Post
John Ivison: Churchill Falls deal will outlast any damage Trump inflicts · assertive framing

Claims (40 extracted, 3 hedged)

The most important thing happening in Canada this week is not the threat of 50 per cent tariffs on US$20 billion of this country’s products by President Donald Trump. asserted
thing → happen → Trump
Rather, according to Prime Minister Mark Carney, the most consequential event was Monday’s announcement in St. John’s, N.L., of a multi-billion-dollar clean energy deal with Quebec that will see a tripling of the generating capacity of the Churchill Falls hydro-electric project. uncertain
that → accord → project
The additional power generated by the expansion would be enough power to light, heat and cool Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver combined, Carney said. asserted
Carney → generate → Toronto
The deal replaces the notorious 1969 Churchill Falls power contract that heavily favoured Hydro-Quebec at the expense of Newfoundland and Labrador. asserted
that → replace → Newfoundland
It will see the average rate paid per kilowatt hour rise from 0.2 cents to around 6 cents. asserted
rate → see → cents
The benefit for Quebec is that it secures additional clean power for the province until 2077. asserted
it → secure → 2077
Even allowing for the price increase, Hydro Québec will still be paying much less than any alternative source of power, Premier Christine Fréchette said. asserted
Fréchette → allow → power
Quebec runs on cheap hydro and the deal guarantees predictable, stable energy for the next 50 years. asserted
deal → run → years
The 10,000 MW provided for by the deal is more than one-quarter of Hydro-Québec’s current output. asserted
MW → provide → output
In that sense, Carney is right — it is historic in ending nearly 60 years of enmity between the provinces and offers increased economic development opportunities for both. asserted
it → end → both
The deal was stalled until the federal government stepped forward with $10 billion in financing. asserted
government → stall → financing
Ottawa will expand the Churchill Falls plant; construct a transmission line to the Labrador West mining trough; support the construction of a new dam at Gull Island; build a 2,000 MW onshore wind energy project; and refer the whole series of interlocking investments to the Major Projects Office to coordinate funding and accelerate permitting. asserted
Ottawa → expand → permitting
It appears to be no coincidence that Carney, Fréchette and Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham stood shoulder to shoulder to make the announcement two days before Trump’s new tariffs were due to land. asserted
tariffs → appear → land
Wakeham said that the deal would not have reached fruition without Carney’s leadership. asserted
deal → say → leadership
“You helped bridge the gap between the two sides,” he said. asserted
he → help → sides
“This is a partnership between two provinces and a federal government that is dreaming big for Canada and executing big for Canada. asserted
that → dream → Canada
That, sir, will be your legacy and I’m proud to be a partner in it.” asserted
I → ’m → it
Fréchette acknowledged that a Parti Québécois government could tear up the agreement after October’s election. uncertain
government → acknowledge → election
“But where will they get 10,000 MW of power, and at what cost?” she said. asserted
she → get → power
The veracity of the claim that this is a “win-win-win” deal is debatable — it involves huge federal investments and it will be years before taxpayers see any return. But it is absolutely the kind of “nation-building investment” that Carney promised when he sought election last year. uncertain
he → involve → election
“We are giving ourselves more than any other nation can take away,” he said. asserted
he → give → more
The deal will also build trust between the provinces, “the most valuable commodity in an increasingly volatile and unreliable world,” the prime minister said. asserted
minister → build → world
Carney outlined how the increase in power would help industry access iron ore and graphite reserves in Labrador. asserted
industry → outline → Labrador
“Each investment unlocks the others,” he said. asserted
he → unlock → others
He was asked if he planned to talk to Trump before Wednesday’s deadline. asserted
he → ask → deadline
He said he did, “and the first thing I will talk about is this historic investment. asserted
I → say → ?
I say that in all seriousness… asserted
I → say → seriousness
Maybe I’ll translate ‘maîtres chez nous’ for the president as well. asserted
I → translate → president
This is what a good deal looks like,” he said. asserted
he → look → what
Carney didn’t directly link the supply of critical minerals, including high purity iron ore, to the current negotiations with Trump, but it’s clear he intends to impress on the president that Canada is not a supplicant. asserted
Canada → link → president
Rather, the message from Monday’s announcement is that this country is united in its determination to forge an independent future. asserted
country → unite → future
The pressure is already building on Trump not to proceed with the threatened section 338 tariffs under the Smoot-Hawley Act. asserted
pressure → build → Act
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce issued a statement saying that new tariffs would drive up costs for U.S. families, disrupt supply chains and risk jobs that are dependent on trade with Canada and Mexico. asserted
that → issue → Canada
Yields on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bill hit a two-decade high of 5.3 per cent on Tuesday, over persistent inflation, geopolitical and borrowing fears. asserted
Yields → hit → inflation
The prospect of an extension to Wednesday’s deadline is considered a reasonable bet. asserted
prospect → consider → deadline
But senior sources have reiterated that the two sides are far apart when it comes to lowering the sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and forestry, in large part because the Trump administration believes they are working when it comes to re-shoring investment. asserted
it → reiterate → investment
The president clearly believes an incremental bump in light vehicle production is worth risking a trade war with his nearest neighbour. asserted
bump → believe → neighbour
But he is also the man who has threatened to bomb Oman (an ally), backed the world’s worst regime (North Korea) and told reporters to mind their own business when they asked how his 20-year-old son Barron has accumulated $150 million. asserted
son → threaten → million
Whatever comes out of the White House this week will be transitory. asserted
comes → come → House
The Churchill Falls deal will outlast us all. asserted
deal → outlast → us
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