Tuesday’s wave election swept Democrats into power in Congress.
asserted
election → sweep → Congress
But the most seismic result for American politics and democracy may come out of the battleground states where Democrats just won trifecta control by taking both state houses and the governor’s mansion: Come January, Democratic legislators will have the votes to elect the next president by the popular vote.
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legislators → come → vote
State lawmakers could circumvent the Electoral College by enacting what’s known as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
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what → circumvent → Compact
Under the current system, each state gets a set number of electors, and the candidate who wins enough states to accumulate at least 270 electoral votes becomes president.
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who → get → votes
This system allows the winner of the popular vote to lose, as Al Gore did in 2000 and Hillary Clinton again in 2016.
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Gore → allow → 2016
But the NPVIC would bypass the Electoral College, with each state that enacts the compact awarding its electors to the winner of the national popular vote.
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that → bypass → vote
The compact would only take effect once states representing a majority of electoral votes sign on, ensuring that the winner of the national popular vote becomes president.
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winner → take → vote
In April, Virginia became the 18th state to join the compact, bringing the total number of electoral votes pledged under the proposal to 222.
asserted
Virginia → become → 222
On Tuesday, Democrats took trifecta control of state governments in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.
asserted
Democrats → take → Michigan
That’s 61 electoral votes.
asserted
That → ’ → ?
Add in Alaska, where late-arriving votes are still being counted, and that’s 64.
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that → add → Alaska
With Virginia on board, only 48 more votes are needed for the compact to reach 270 votes and take effect.
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compact → need → effect
The emerging math means there is a real chance that the next president is selected based on the national popular vote.
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president → emerge → vote
That would represent a sea change in American politics.
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That → represent → politics
The current Electoral College system violates the basic principle of one person, one vote.
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system → violate → person
Instead of candidates being forced to campaign for every vote, millions of presidential votes in uncompetitive states are effectively wasted in a winner-take-all system.
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millions → force → system
Politicians and donors pour billions of dollars into a handful of battlegrounds, while the votes—and concerns—of most of the country are ignored.
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votes → pour → country
“Under the current system, four out of five American voters are on the sidelines,” says Patrick Rosenstiel, a Republican strategist who is advocating for the compact.
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who → say → compact
The Electoral College was part of the Framers’ power-sharing concession with small states and slave states at the nation’s founding.
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College → share → founding
Because a state’s Electoral College votes are based on their congressional representation, slave states benefited from the three-fifths compromise with outsized clout.
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states → base → clout
After Reconstruction, Southern whites disenfranchised Black people, while using the electoral votes allotted to their states’ Black residents to become even more politically powerful.
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whites → disenfranchise → residents
This warped our politics and enshrined white supremacist policies for decades.
asserted
This → warp → decades
The Supreme Court’s gutting of the 1965 Voting Rights Act this year threatens to return the country to a similar situation: a white majority running up their influence on the backs of Black people they have gerrymandered out of power.
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they → threaten → power
In 2000, the Supreme Court’s decision to halt a recount in a single state—Florida—meant the winner of the popular vote lost.
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winner → halt → vote
That history shows how the current process can be manipulated in just one state by interference, disenfranchisement, or legal tampering to upend the will of the people.
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process → show → people
In 2016, Russia targeted voters in key states, demonstrating that even foreign adversaries understand our current system’s vulnerabilities.
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adversaries → target → vulnerabilities
In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by 7 million votes, but Donald Trump lost the three closest states in the Electoral College by just 44,000 total votes, opening the door his election-stealing scheme.
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Trump → win → scheme
Moreover, Trump’s attempt to hold onto power on January 6, 2021 by sending a violent mob to stop the certification of the electoral votes could never have happened if the president were chosen by a simple majority.
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president → hold → majority
While Democrats have been the chief drivers of the national vote compact, Republicans might conclude they would also benefit from a change.
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they → conclude → change
On Tuesday, Democrats swept statewide races in Texas, shattering the political epicenter of the Republican Party.
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Democrats → sweep → Party
The win showed that in a wave, Texas can go blue, and with it, the second-largest state’s 40 electoral votes.
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Texas → show → it
Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa also saw Democratic sweeps.
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Georgia → see → sweeps
These results may induce some Republicans to support the compact, reasoning that they might have more luck by actually counting millions of Republican votes in California and New York, for example, than by hoping swing states go their way in tough years.
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states → induce → years
As Rosenstiel said the day after the midterms, “the environment is right for the 2028 presidential election to be run by national popular vote.”
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election → say → vote
This month’s elections are a mandate for change, and much of the change demanded is to our political system itself.
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much → demand → system
Electing the president by a national popular vote could reshape American politics, empower voters, and protect our elections from interference.
uncertain
Electing → elect → interference
The Aporia
