Last year, as Donald Trump’s approval ratings began to sink underwater, Republicans launched an unprecedented plan to create a dozen or more red districts across the country to keep the House in GOP hands.
asserted
Republicans → begin → hands
That mid-decade gerrymandering strategy failed spectacularly on Tuesday night.
asserted
strategy → fail → night
Remember when Trump said he was entitled to five new seats in Texas?
asserted
he → remember → Texas
The GOP also lost two US House seats in the state.
asserted
GOP → lose → state
It was just as bad in Florida, where Republicans gerrymandered four US House districts to flip them red.
asserted
Republicans → gerrymander → them
They all went blue instead.
asserted
They → go → ?
Over the past two years, Republicans created 15 more GOP-friendly seats through mid-decade redistricting.
asserted
Republicans → create → redistricting
At most, they won two or three on Tuesday night.
asserted
they → win → night
All this did was motivate Democrats to turn out in higher numbers.
asserted
this → do → numbers
Democrats gained six new US House seats through their own counterattack in California and Utah, giving them the upper hand in the mid-decade redistricting war.
asserted
Democrats → gain → war
“I absolutely think Donald Trump’s gerrymandering scheme had a catastrophic impact for Republicans on the electoral results,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
asserted
Bisognano → think → Committee
I saw this firsthand on the ground in Alabama, where Republicans drew new maps after the Supreme Court eviscerated the Voting Rights Act to oust freshman Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures.
asserted
Court → see → Figures
But Figures won by eight points, in a district that was initially thought to be safely Republican.
asserted
that → win → district
“It doesn’t matter what your district lines look like when people are paying $4 a gallon for gas,” Figures said on the campaign trail.
asserted
Figures → matter → trail
“It doesn’t matter what your district lines look like when farmers are paying all-time high prices for diesel fuel.
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farmers → matter → fuel
It doesn’t matter how many farmers you put into the district when those farmers are paying all-time high prices for fertilizer because a president wants to start a war in Iran.
asserted
president → matter → Iran
”
While voters across the spectrum punished Republicans for skyrocketing prices, Black turnout surged across the South because of anger over the Louisiana v. Callais decision dismantling the Voting Rights Act.
asserted
turnout → punish → Act
As Cornell Belcher, Barack Obama’s former pollster, told me: “This Supreme Court decision is an encapsulation.
asserted
decision → tell → me
The Black community feels that there is an existential threat to their community and it’s not simply about gas prices and the price of eggs.”
asserted
it → feel → eggs
That surge helped Democrats win US Senate races in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, put Scott Colom on track to become the first Black Senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction, and almost allowed Democrats to pull off a shocking upset in the Louisiana Senate race.
asserted
Democrats → help → race
In Alabama, turnout in majority-Black Montgomery County, the Democratic heart of Figures’ reconstituted district, rose from 36 percent in 2022 to 50 percent in 2026, helping carry him to a surprising victory.
asserted
turnout → reconstitute → victory
“Predominantly Black counties saw among the greatest surges in turnout this cycle compared to the 2022 midterms, according to initial data,” Politico reported.
uncertain
Politico → see → data
“Among counties reporting close to complete results, counties that were between 60-80% Black reported a 21% jump in turnout compared to four years ago.
asserted
that → report → turnout
By contrast, counties that are less than 20% Black showed a smaller 9% turnout increase.”
asserted
that → show → increase
Tom Bonier, a senior adviser with the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, shared data showing how turnout increased in majority-Black counties compared to majority-white counties in states across the South.
asserted
turnout → share → South
And younger voters and Latino voters also showed up in big numbers to oppose Republican candidates in previously red states like Texas and Florida.
asserted
voters → show → Texas
In the end, Trump’s 2024 coalition abandoned him in staggering numbers, putting in play many seats that were thought to be safely red.
asserted
that → abandon → seats
Of course, that doesn’t mean gerrymandering had no impact on the election.
asserted
gerrymandering → mean → election
Gerrymandered state legislative maps allowed Republicans to prevent Democrats from winning one-party control in states including Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.
asserted
Republicans → allow → Georgia
And according to Stephen Wolf of The Downballot, Republicans would have lost up to two dozen more US House seats under fairer lines.
uncertain
Republicans → accord → lines
But the GOP’s mid-decade gerrymandering strategy was supposed to cement Republican power.
asserted
strategy → suppose → power
Instead, it helped unravel it.
asserted
it → help → it
The Aporia
