A dangerous fatalism is settling in about America’s place in the world.
asserted
fatalism → settle → world
After Donald Trump became president for the first time in 2016, many around the world—government leaders and analysts alike—hoped that the outcome was a one-off protest vote, a very narrow one at that, and that that victory and Trump’s ideas did not signal a permanent change in American foreign policy.
asserted
victory → become → policy
After Trump won a second time, however, a new conventional wisdom settled in: Trumpism represents America’s new and enduring approach to international politics.
asserted
Trumpism → win → politics
Trump is not the cause, but a symptom of deeper structural trends in American society, the argument goes.
asserted
argument → go → society
Without question, President Trump has done real damage to American power and purpose in global affairs in ways that will take years, if not decades, to repair.
asserted
that → do → years
His second term has wreaked more havoc than his first.
asserted
term → wreak → first
But to assume that this current trajectory is permanent is analytically inaccurate and prescriptively dangerous.
asserted
trajectory → assume → ?
But when it comes to U.S. foreign policy, President Trump is out of step with American society.
asserted
Trump → come → society
In his second term, Trump has not followed or reflected the will of the majority on foreign policy.
asserted
Trump → follow → policy
Instead, he has pursued a series of foreign policy initiatives driven solely by his own desires.
asserted
he → pursue → desires
During his last presidential campaign, Trump did not seek, nor therefore win, endorsement for most of his new foreign policy actions.
asserted
Trump → seek → actions
American voters most certainly did not ask for them back in 2024.
asserted
voters → ask → 2024
Trump the individual, not innate structural forces, is the cause of much of the irrational, imprudent chaos unfolding in American foreign policy today.
asserted
Trump → unfold → policy
And therefore, the current trajectory of American foreign policy can change radically in a post-Trump era.
asserted
trajectory → change → era
There is no going back to the “glory days” of the 1990s—but that doesn’t mean we are destined to stay on a course that is suicidal for American national interests.
asserted
that → be → interests
Presidents in the American political system have significant autonomy and influence over foreign policy.
asserted
Presidents → have → policy
That presidential power has grown in recent decades, especially as the U.S. Congress has refrained from exercising its power to shape foreign policy as outlined in the U.S. Constitution.
asserted
Congress → grow → Constitution
Of the 292 executive orders that Trump has issued since the start of his second term, 70 have impacted foreign policy (President Obama issued 276 executive orders across his entire two terms in office).
asserted
Obama → issue → office
In his second term, more confident in his own ideas and less constrained by professional national security officials who held major positions in his first administration, Trump has personally impacted U.S. foreign policy in dramatic, consequential ways—almost all of them bad.
asserted
all → constrain → them
Trump has radically damaged American alliances, disrupted trade practices, and demolished American foreign assistance.
asserted
Trump → damage → assistance
His failed war against Iran has weakened America’s position in the Middle East and empowered China.
asserted
war → fail → China
His decision to cut aid to Ukraine and leave that fight to the Europeans, coupled with his embarrassing threats to annex Greenland, has deeply diminished American power and influence in Europe.
asserted
decision → cut → Europe
His capitulation in his game-of-chicken trade war with China, combined with his decision to substantially reduce military exercises with South Korea and praise North Korea’s communist dictator, has compelled many in Asia to embrace Beijing’s line that the United States is a declining power.
asserted
States → combine → line
Closer to home, Trump has alienated one of America’s most loyal and enduring allies: Canada.
asserted
Trump → alienate → allies
It is important to remember, however, that these dreadful foreign policy decisions resulted from Trump’s independent actions.
asserted
decisions → remember → actions
They do not reflect the will of the American people, nor are they an expression of some innate structural variables guiding American behavior such as power, history, or culture.
asserted
they → reflect → power
In international relations, power and the balance of power of course matter.
asserted
power → matter → course
But individuals matter, too.
asserted
individuals → matter → ?
As a presidential candidate in 2024, Trump did not pledge to annex Greenland, invade Iran, fight with allies, embrace dictators, or blow up the international trading system.
asserted
Trump → pledge → system
Instead, Trump’s campaign focused successfully on his proposals for new economic policies, especially taming inflation.
asserted
campaign → focus → inflation
These domestic economic concerns resonated with his voters.
asserted
concerns → resonate → voters
According to the Pew Research Center, one of America’s major polling organizations, the economy was the most important issue for Trump voters in 2024.
uncertain
economy → accord → 2024
The only “foreign policy” issue that Trump campaigned on and then delivered was his promise to close the border with Mexico and reduce illegal immigration.
asserted
Trump → campaign → immigration
Beyond border security and immigration policy, foreign policy played a very small role in the 2024 presidential election.
asserted
policy → play → election
The rise of China, the threat from Iran, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine generated very little attention.
asserted
rise → generate → attention
However, Trump’s departure from the will of the American people—including, on some issues, his own electoral base—is now catching up with him.
asserted
departure → include → him
Increasingly, Americans are paying more attention to Trump’s foreign policy decisions—and they do not like what they see.
asserted
they → pay → what
Even before the midterm results yesterday, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 33% of Americans supported the president, the lowest number of his presidency.
asserted
% → find → presidency
Therefore, it is difficult to untangle disapproval of his foreign policies from his overall decline in popularity.
asserted
it → untangle → popularity
But when polling agencies ask specific questions about foreign policy issues, nearly all of Trump’s major initiatives prove unpopular.
asserted
all → ask → initiatives
…and 79 more, not listed.
The Aporia
