THE world had good reason to watch the US midterm elections with bated breath, because their outcome would not only determine the balance of power in Washington, but also shape the course of major international conflicts — particularly in the Middle East — and establish how much political bandwidth President Donald Trump would retain to pursue his foreign policy during the final two years of his presidency.
asserted
Trump → have → presidency
The verdict has been considerably harsher than many had anticipated, chiefly because of the fallout of the Iran war.
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many → anticipate → war
As the election outcome was influenced by an external issue, the implications will accordingly be reflected more on the foreign policy front.
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implications → influence → front
For foreign capitals, the significance of the result lies less in the change of congressional control itself but what it means for Trump’s ability, and willingness, to use American power abroad.
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it → lie → power
A midterm defeat does not automatically diminish presidential authority over foreign affairs and military operations.
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defeat → diminish → affairs
Trump, therefore, retains considerable discretion over military operations and negotiations, as well as executive powers over sanctions and trade.
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Trump → retain → sanctions
What he has actually lost is political room to manoeuvre as Democrats in the Congress can now investigate, obstruct funding and impose greater scrutiny on his decisions.
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Democrats → lose → decisions
Compounding that would be the fact that some key Republicans, mindful of their own electoral prospects in 2028, may become less willing to defend his policies that come with a political cost
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that → compound → cost
The resulting situation could constrain the president over time, but it would not necessarily make him more cautious in the immediate term.
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him → result → term
Iran
Iran will be the immediate test of how Trump responds to the Republican rout.
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Trump → respond → rout
The electoral setback has created a paradox for the president because while the war is the key reason for the debacle, many think he may still be tempted to intensify military pressure in the hope of securing a decisive outcome before the political space for doing so narrows further.
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space → create → outcome
Christopher Clary, a non-resident fellow at Stimson Center, points out that “the Constitution grants the president enormous latitude on the use of force and the president can escalate despite the new Democratic Congress.”
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president → point → Congress
But escalation carries the risk of aggravating the original problem.
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escalation → carry → problem
Iranian retaliation in that case could deepen the economic pressures and make the war an even greater political liability.
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war → deepen → pressures
The indications from Tehran further suggest that resumption of full-scale hostilities could also lead to widening of the conflict.
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resumption → suggest → conflict
Importantly, Trump has a crucial window of two months before the new Congress takes office.
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Congress → have → office
But after the transition, political calculations will change with Democrats making the Iran war a major focus of oversight.
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war → change → oversight
They could also pursue War Powers resolutions, requiring congressional authorisation for continued hostilities, in addition to attaching conditions or restrictions to defence appropriations.
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They → pursue → appropriations
Mr Clary warned that “the lame duck period before the new Congress is sworn in will be an especially dangerous time.”
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Congress → warn → ?
He emphasised that while there are “no real binding constraints on Trump”, the Democrats can “use their budgetary authority to deny new funds to sustain the operation”.
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Democrats → emphasise → operation
The control of spending will give Democrats additional leverage, although it will not automatically enable them to terminate military operations because Trump retains veto power, which he has hinted that he will use, and Democrats don’t command the two-thirds majority needed to override it.
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Democrats → give → it
Moreover, Democrats will not either want to be seen as curtailing support for American forces.
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Democrats → want → forces
Quincy Institute Vice President Trita Parsi recalled that “the Vietnam war ended because Congress stopped funding it”, adding, “Democrats can do this to Trump’s illegal Iran war as well.
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Democrats → recall → war
If they don’t, they will become complicit”.
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they → do → ?
Sustaining an open ended campaign will, in any case, become politically more difficult and even Republicans, conscious of the electoral cost of the Iran war, may also become increasingly reluctant to support additional funding without a clearer strategy and exit plan.
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Republicans → sustain → strategy
If things do come to that point sometime next year, Trump can then become inclined towards a combination of military pressure and diplomacy by extracting concessions from Tehran through the threat of further strikes while pursuing an agreement, which he can present as an achievement and a resolution of the conflict.
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he → come → conflict
For Pakistan, the Democrat victory presents a more gradual test.
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victory → present → test
The turnaround in relations under Trump depended heavily on the president and his inner circle, rather than an actual shift in the relationship.
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turnaround → depend → relationship
Islamabad had moved quickly to cultivate ties with the new administration after Trump returned to office — extraditing the accused in Abbey Gate Kabul bombing; praising the president’s intervention in the May 2025 conflict with India; nominating him for the Nobel Peace prize; and, joining his Board of Peace for Gaza.
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Trump → move → Gaza
The unprecedented White House working lunch with Chief of Army Staff and Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir in June 2025 — sans PM Shehbaz Sharif — further underscored the importance of the military channel.
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lunch → underscore → channel
Critical minerals and cryptocurrency also became prominent areas of engagement, alongside proposals involving Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial, the Roosevelt Hotel and drone manufacturing.
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minerals → become → Financial
A Democratic Congress is unlikely to undo the relationship, but it could subject some of these dealings to greater scrutiny.
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it → undo → scrutiny
Questions may be raised about foreign links of the Trump family’s commercial interests, the cooperation with Powerus and Pakistan’s governance and transparency.
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Questions → raise → Powerus
Mentioning these aspects, Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council noted that “scrutiny of Trump and his family’s business dealings will increase…
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scrutiny → mention → dealings
If so, that could spell bad news for Pakistan.”
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that → spell → Pakistan
Erik Sperling, executive director of Just Foreign Policy, recalled earlier congressional letters and legislation initiated by Democrats, raising concerns about the situation in Pakistan, and expected that with Democrats now controlling the House, these measures will have a clear path to floor votes.
Islamabad’s earlier effort to secure a $10bn US Treasury financial backstop has found little enthusiasm, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasising self-reliance and IMF reforms.
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Bessent → recall → reliance
A Democratic controlled Congress would make congressional support for a large financial arrangement even more difficult.
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support → control → arrangement
The challenge for Islamabad will be to translate the access secured under Trump into a relationship with a wider institutional base, including engagement with Democrats and a stronger case for durable economic cooperation.
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challenge → translate → cooperation
Other arenas
A Democratic Congress could help preserve military and economic support for Ukraine and scrutinise arms transfers to Israel, without forcing Trump to abandon his preference for a negotiated settlement with Moscow or bringing about an abrupt change in US policy towards Israel.
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Congress → help → Israel
Adam Weinstein, deputy Middle East director at the Quincy Institute, said: “Uncritical support for Israel, and more importantly, close ties to AIPAC, have become serious political liabilities in the US.
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support → say → US
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
