THE world is passing through one of the most volatile periods in modern history.
asserted
world → pass → history
The international system is fragmenting with rising big-power tensions.
asserted
system → fragment → tensions
The old order with whatever rules it had is gone.
asserted
it → have → rules
Power shifts continue to reshape the international landscape, marking the advent of a multipolar era.
asserted
shifts → continue → era
The disregard for international law and norms by big and regional powers has left countries having to navigate a rule-less terrain at a time of great uncertainty.
asserted
disregard → leave → uncertainty
Hard power has made a comeback.
asserted
power → make → comeback
Powerful countries and regional powers are using military force or other coercive instruments to try to bend other states to their will.
asserted
countries → use → will
The threat or the use of force has become an option of first and not last resort, and the means to prevail over others.
asserted
threat → become → others
These actions defy international law and global norms but continue with impunity.
asserted
actions → defy → impunity
Diplomacy only happens after missiles have been fired.
asserted
missiles → happen → ?
Conflicts proliferate across the world — two major wars, between the US-Israel and Iran and between Ukraine and Russia as well as Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and military actions against its neighbours.
asserted
Conflicts → proliferate → neighbours
A study by a Swedish university has counted the highest number of conflicts between states in 2025 since World War II.
asserted
study → count → II
The risk of a global conflagration is also heightening.
asserted
risk → heighten → conflagration
Can this push the world to the brink of a third world war?
asserted
this → push → war
A new book seeks to answer this frequently raised question.
asserted
book → seek → question
He borrows the book’s title from Trotsky: “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you” — meaning war will come whether anyone wants it or is thinking about it.
uncertain
anyone → borrow → it
Rachman identifies three fundamental reasons for the surge in conflicts and breakdown of international order.
asserted
Rachman → identify → order
The first is the shifting global balance of power which is challenging US dominance.
asserted
which → shift → dominance
The second is the rise of what he calls ‘strongmen leaders’ who regard war as a necessary and legitimate tool to achieve their ends.
asserted
who → call → ends
The third is a consequence of the first two; as these trends take hold international rules and law are breaking down.
asserted
rules → take → hold
“A law-governed world is giving way to a might-makes-right world,” he writes.
uncertain
he → govern → world
In explaining these causal factors, Rachman argues that the relative decline of the Western alliance and America’s retrenchment from its global role created an “opening” for “revisionist” powers dissatisfied with the present world order to take more risks.
asserted
powers → explain → risks
He cites Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s more aggressive posture on Taiwan as cases in point.
asserted
He → cite → point
Trump’s use of military force against Iran, in defiance of international law and ignoring the views of its allies, has further contributed to the collapse of global order.
asserted
use → ignore → order
Can distinct regional conflicts merge to push the world to the brink of a third world war?
asserted
conflicts → merge → war
Greater international insecurity also stems from the emergence of a new generation of self-styled strongman leaders — Putin, Trump, Netanyahu — who deride the idea of a rules-based international order.
asserted
who → stem → order
Their acceptance of territorial annexation and belief in ‘might-makes-right’ has heightened the risk of international conflict.
uncertain
might → make → conflict
Rachman suggests that both Trump and Putin subscribe to the “spheres of influence” theory, which they see as a more reliable guarantor of peace and stability than a rules-based order.
uncertain
they → suggest → order
The starkest expression of this, he asserts, is Trump’s revival of the Monroe doctrine for the Western Hemisphere.
asserted
he → assert → Hemisphere
In what Rachman characterises as a “might is right” world, growing global insecurity is driving up defence spending.
uncertain
insecurity → characterise → spending
Global rules and international institutions are being upended by strongman leaders, increasing the risk of more wars.
asserted
rules → upend → wars
While acts of war are the most dramatic examples of the breakdown of the rules-based order, Rachman argues that international institutions are crumbling in other ways too.
asserted
institutions → base → ways
Trump’s trade war and protectionist policies are, for example, accelerating this erosion.
asserted
war → accelerate → erosion
Rachman examines today’s major wars and argues that while they have been distinct regional conflicts, they intersect at various points.
asserted
they → examine → points
But as these separate conflicts escalate, they risk eventually merging.
asserted
they → escalate → ?
His concept of an ‘axis of adversaries’ of the West or ‘axis of upheaval’ challenging the US-led world order greatly exaggerates the degree of cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran whose interests are hardly identical.
asserted
interests → challenge → Russia
They may all want an end to US hegemony but that doesn’t make them partners in an alliance acting in unison.
uncertain
them → want → unison
The argument does not stand up to scrutiny.
asserted
argument → stand → scrutiny
Rachman is unable to convincingly establish the “practical and ideological” links he posits between them.
asserted
he → establish → them
In fact, he himself acknowledges the limits of the Russian-Chinese partnership and strains among the four countries.
asserted
he → acknowledge → countries
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
