Polls have just closed in the US midterm elections.
asserted
Polls → close → elections
The final results are coming in for states such as Florida and will land in a few days for others such as California and Alaska.
asserted
results → come → California
One conclusion can be drawn immediately: the Republican Party’s huge advantage in money couldn’t protect it from a disenchanted electorate.
asserted
advantage → draw → electorate
This marks a dramatic change after more than four decades in which the top fundraiser has won 92 per cent of the time.
asserted
fundraiser → mark → time
In this sense, the midterms revealed the limits of the power of money in a democracy.
asserted
midterms → reveal → democracy
The Republican Party faced a completely hostile political environment: high prices at the petrol station and the supermarket, a stalemated war with Iran, for which President Donald Trump proudly took responsibility, public hostility toward data centres that feed into fears about job losses due to artificial intelligence, and the lowest presidential approval rating before a midterm election in 80 years, when President Harry S. Truman and the Democrats were demolished in 1946.
asserted
Truman → face → 1946
The accumulated force of these factors should have swept Republican candidates out of politics the way a meteorite cleared out Earth’s dinosaurs.
asserted
meteorite → accumulate → dinosaurs
For historical reasons, however, there was still a chance three months ago that the Republican Party could have staged a comeback.
uncertain
Party → be → comeback
That would have required it to maintain a laser-like focus on mobilising Americans who generally don’t vote in midterms.
asserted
who → require → midterms
A key demographic group that contributed to Trump’s victory in 2016 and his political rebirth in 2024 is the “white voter without a college degree”.
asserted
that → contribute → degree
They are the backbone of his MAGA movement, and about two-thirds of them voted for him in each of his presidential campaigns.
asserted
thirds → vote → campaigns
He appealed to them at public rallies to “pretend I’m on the ticket” and vote Republican.
asserted
I → appeal → Republican
It is no accident that Trump has been photographed accompanied by various cage fighters and boxers, and sought comfort in their soothing balm of sweat, blood and male aggression.
asserted
Trump → photograph → sweat
If they couldn’t get positive energy for their policies, they had to summon up negative energy to get a demoralised and frustrated base into the polling booths to vote against their enemies.
asserted
they → get → enemies
But the problem was that these voters expressed intense frustration with their own party, citing unfulfilled promises and economic frustrations.
asserted
voters → express → promises
As such, they were inherently forward-looking and grievance-driven at the polling booths, and wanted solutions rather than reminders of what Trump had already done.
asserted
Trump → drive → what
Trump’s undisciplined talk of ballrooms, reflecting pools, athletes’ bodies and other diversions undermined the hundreds of millions spent on the campaign.
asserted
talk → reflect → campaign
The Republicans used sophisticated data analytics to identify and reach key demographics using digital platforms YouTube, Twitch, and sports-adjacent podcasts, as well as traditional television advertising.
asserted
Republicans → use → platforms
They highlighted cultural issues where they believed Democrats were out of step with more socially conservative or working-class voters.
asserted
Democrats → highlight → voters
They invested in direct voter contact such as door-knocking, tracking early voting data, and following up with voters who have a history of voting Republican but hadn’t yet done so.
asserted
who → invest → Republican
Their efforts were intended to prevent a drop-off in turnout among these specific voters.
asserted
efforts → intend → voters
However, working-class Americans voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election on economic grounds – specifically, inflation, petrol prices, and the cost of living under the Biden administration.
asserted
Americans → vote → administration
Trump had promised them immediate economic relief.
asserted
Trump → promise → relief
But for the whole of 2026, groceries have been more expensive, energy costs have risen and working-class voters felt their economic situation worsened.
asserted
situation → rise → 2026
Ultimately, the avalanche of Republican money couldn’t pull Trump’s most important demographics out of their homes and into the voting booths.
asserted
avalanche → pull → booths
Furthermore, the big money was deployed too late, forcing pro-Republican donors to pay much higher advertising rates because the pro-Democrats had used their funds to reserve advertising time much earlier, when it was cheaper.
asserted
it → deploy → time
The result is that Trump-connected organisations sometimes paid more than five times what they would have paid if they moved earlier.
asserted
they → connect → what
For example, during a football game a few weeks ago, Texas PAC was charged $US450,000 ($646,000) to air a single spot in the Austin market.
asserted
PAC → charge → market
The Democratic candidate’s campaign paid $US50,000 for a spot during the same game in the same market, according to AdImpact.
uncertain
campaign → pay → AdImpact
A major difference to previous decades is that the Republican Party no longer relies primarily on a broad corporate donor network of the kind associated with figures like George W. Bush.
asserted
Party → rely → Bush
Under Trump, it depends heavily on a relatively small number of super-wealthy donors and political action committees.
asserted
it → depend → donors
As US political scientist Paul Heidemann noted last week, such elite concentration has narrowed the party’s social base and disconnected party leaders from voter sentiment.
asserted
concentration → note → sentiment
There was no-one to push back when Trump repeatedly called affordability a “fake word made up by the Democrats”.
asserted
Trump → be → Democrats
That could change in 2028.
uncertain
That → change → 2028
When the final results are known, they won’t be a Democratic meteorite hitting the Republican Party.
asserted
they → know → Party
They will be a Democratic wave that takes the House Representatives.
asserted
that → take → Representatives
And perhaps even a tsunami that takes the Senate.
asserted
that → take → Senate
The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own.
asserted
that → challenge → own
The Aporia
