Stop me if you've heard this one before: An unpopular second-term Republican president who launched an unnecessary and poorly executed war in the Middle East was on the receiving end of an electoral rout, as Democrats took both chambers of Congress.
asserted
Democrats → stop → Congress
It happened 20 years ago, when Democrats flipped the majority in the House and the Senate on a single night.
asserted
Democrats → happen → night
That "blue wave" election effectively ended the presidency of George W. Bush, just two years after he'd scored a narrow but decisive reelection.
asserted
he → end → reelection
It ushered in a new era of Democratic politics—Nancy Pelosi became speaker of the House for the first time in January 2007—and laid the groundwork for Democrats' further gains in 2008, culminating in the passage of the Affordable Care Act.
asserted
Pelosi → usher → Act
Now it has happened again.
asserted
it → happen → ?
Democrats have won a majority in both the House and the Senate.
asserted
Democrats → win → House
President Donald Trump, fresh off his own defiant reelection, joins Bush as the only two Republican presidents to lose both houses of Congress in a single midterm election since 1954.
asserted
Trump → join → 1954
Republicans never had much of a chance of holding their slim House majority, so the Senate results are the biggest story of this election.
asserted
results → have → election
Then, a surprise in South Carolina: Democrat Anne Andrews knocked off Darlene Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.
asserted
Andrews → knock → Graham
Andrews becomes the first Democrat to win a Senate election in South Carolina since 1998.
asserted
Andrews → become → 1998
That was another result that had Trump's fingerprints all over it—he had personally elevated Graham in a tightly contested primary election earlier this year.
asserted
he → have → election
She was a terrible campaigner (who admitted at one point that she was "not that informed about national security"), and she was unable to coast to victory on the value of her last name alone.
asserted
she → admit → name
The other dominoes were quick to fall.
asserted
dominoes → fall → ?
James Talarico routed Ken Paxton in Texas.
asserted
Talarico → rout → Texas
Kansas elected a Democratic senator for the first time since 1932.
asserted
Kansas → elect → 1932
The tipping point for Democratic control of the Senate was Iowa, where state Rep. Josh Turek knocked off Rep. Ashley Hinson.
asserted
Turek → knock → Hinson
It is the first time since 2008 that a Democrat won a Senate race in Iowa.
asserted
Democrat → win → Iowa
History doesn't always repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
asserted
it → repeat → itself
And there is something poetic about Trump, who launched his takeover of the Republican Party by dancing on Bush's political grave, arriving at this point.
asserted
who → be → point
Trump's presidency is not over yet, of course—after 2006, Bush still had two more disastrous years of wars and bailouts—but Trump is now firmly into his lame-duck era.
asserted
Trump → have → era
His influence over American politics will only wane from here, and both his party and the country will likely be better off as a result.
asserted
party → wane → result
If history is any guide, the next dominant faction in Republican politics will be led by someone who runs hard against Trump's legacy.
asserted
who → lead → legacy
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, apparently sensing blood in the water on the eve of Election Day, went on Stephen A. Smith's podcast to call the Iran War a "big, big drag" on Republicans.
asserted
DeSantis → sense → Republicans
(And that's a man who knows his drag.)
asserted
who → know → drag
The extent of that 2006 beatdown might now be obscured by the mists of time, the haze of alcohol, or the fact that today's youngest voters were literally not even alive for it.
uncertain
voters → obscure → it
(No, that's fine, I'm fine, stop asking.)
asserted
I → stop → ?
Democrats gained 30 seats in the House, while Republicans did not win a single House seat that they hadn't held before the election.
asserted
they → gain → election
In the Senate, Democrats picked up six seats while Republicans, again, failed to gain even one.
asserted
Republicans → pick → one
It's too soon to say whether 2026 will follow that same script, but Republicans will not win any new Senate seats.
asserted
Republicans → say → seats
They may pick up a few House seats that remain uncalled, but the overall results have been a clear landslide.
uncertain
results → pick → seats
And it all, ultimately, comes back to Trump.
asserted
it → come → Trump
He wasn't on the ballot this Election Day, but the voters have delivered a judgment of his administration's second term.
asserted
voters → deliver → term
"This outcome has been crafted by Donald Trump," wrote National Review's Jeffrey Blehar on Election Day.
asserted
Blehar → craft → Day
"No other president could singlehandedly put their party so deep down in a hole that half the operatives I'm talking to consider the Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina Senate races to range from 'severely threatened' to 'gone.'
uncertain
races → put → gone
Republicans will win back control of Congress at some point.
asserted
Republicans → win → point
It probably won't even take that long—remember, the predictions of a permanent Democratic majority after 2006 and 2008 were laughably wrong.
asserted
predictions → take → 2006
Republicans won control of the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014.
asserted
Republicans → win → 2014
By then, the party seemed to be turning against Bush's spendy, nation-building policies.
asserted
party → seem → policies
Let the GOP learn the same lesson again.
asserted
GOP → let → lesson
The sooner Republicans jettison an unpopular president and his failed policies, the sooner their party will recover.
asserted
party → jettison → president
The Aporia
