As the past is often prologue, much of the GOP is thinking today about the pounding the party took in 2006, the last time a Republican president led his party into the midterms for the second time.
asserted
president → think → time
Older Republicans try not to let 1986 enter their heads.
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1986 → try → heads
(The GOP lost eight Senate seats that year.)
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GOP → lose → seats
A truth bolt about polling from the Washington Post on Friday gave some hope to the mainstream, especially in states that voted for President Trump in 2024.
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that → give → 2024
The Post revealed that its pollsters had made 85,000 calls and sent 50,000 text messages in Kansas seeking to measure support for Senator Roger Marshall, who is being challenged by Democrat Adam Hamilton.
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who → reveal → Hamilton
While 32% of Kansas Democrats answered the calls and the texts from pollsters, only 12% of the GOP voters did.
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% → answer → voters
The Post conceded that these numbers provide "good reason to suspect the poll overestimates Democratic candidates’ support."
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poll → concede → support
That concession about the reality of polling in 2026 should give every analyst pause before citing "the polls."
There isn’t great public data on which either party can rely, but there is history.
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party → give → which
For the GOP, the year most analogous to 2026 is 2006, and that’s scary.
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that → ’ → 2026
(The electorate is so different from 1986 that if it rhymes at all, it’s a reach.)
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it → rhyme → 1986
In 2006, Republicans under President George W. Bush took a "thumpin’" — W’s term for the beat down of the GOP that year — so it is rational to consider the results from 20 years ago as a clear and present danger signal for Republicans.
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it → take → Republicans
There are, however, some significant differences between this year and 2006, when the GOP lost a net 6 Senate seats and 30 House seats.
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GOP → be → seats
GDP in Q3 of 2006 was reported at just 1.6% in October of that year.
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GDP → report → year
(It was revised up to 2% later.)
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It → revise → %
It is more than twice that this year, clocking in October at a very healthy 3.4%.
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It → clock → %
Republicans can rightly point to an economy in rapid takeoff mode and voters feel that, especially the newly employed.
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voters → point → that
Inflation in 2006 was at 2.1%, and it’s at 3.7% now.
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it → ’ → %
Those numbers hurt the GOP candidates across the country.
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numbers → hurt → country
As do housing costs.
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costs → do → ?
In October 2006, the average U.S. interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was approximately 6.36%.
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rate → fix → mortgage
It’s 7.25% today.
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It → ’ → ?
Younger voters looking to buy their first home or "move-up" don’t know that the era of 3%-4% 30-mortgage rates was an aberration.
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era → look → rates
They just know they missed that window.
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they → know → window
The rational voter knows the hike in the cost of gas and the inflation is because President Trump is taking on the fanatics atop the Islamic Republic of Iran, our country’s sworn enemy of 47 years.
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Trump → know → years
Every president since Bill Clinton has warned the ayatollahs that force was on the table if it did not cease its nuclear program, which it has refused to do even after the one night of strikes that obliterated the program in 2025, the strike deemed "Operation Midnight Hammer."
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strike → warn → 2025
But, the rogue regime didn’t get the message and immediately began rebuilding its shattered nuke program while continuing its support of terrorists around the region.
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regime → get → region
If that regime can be cowed or collapsed, it will be President Trump’s greatest accomplishment.
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it → cow → ?
The biggest difference from 20 years ago, and one reason for Republicans to believe 2026 may not be a repeat of 2006?
uncertain
2026 → believe → 2006
October 2006 saw more than 100 U.S. military killed in Iraq and 10 in Afghanistan.
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military → see → Afghanistan
Contemporary reporting described it as one of the deadliest months of the war.
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reporting → describe → war
The U.S. and its warriors and its military families were paying a very high price in 2006 and it did not seem that we were winning.
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we → pay → 2006
The U.S. is decisively winning in the present conflict in Iran though it has not yet decisively won the battle.
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it → win → battle
Only partisans of the left deny the blockade is bringing Iran to its knees.
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blockade → deny → knees
23 service members have paid the ultimate price since February.
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members → pay → February
The cancer in the region for 47 years is being ripped out and the cost is high.
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cost → rip → years
The good news for the GOP in the comparison is that President Bush’s second term got off to a terrible start in 2005 with the controversy over Terri Schiavo, Hurricane Katrina and the failed effort to reform Social Security.
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term → get → Security
President Trump’s first 22 months back saw the wide open border shuttered and kept sealed, a massive tax hike averted, additional tax cuts made for tips and overtime and long overdue hikes in defense spending.
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hike → see → spending
Crime is down as the Feds crack down and the war on police is over.
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war → crack → police
DEI is DOA and Dems continue to pursue policies considered extreme by the mainstream, including transgender craziness in sports for kids and objections to voter ID.
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Dems → continue → ID
Democratic Senate winners in 2006 included James Webb (USMC war hero), a young Sherrod Brown in a still blue Ohio and John Tester, who was authentically Montana.
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who → include → Ohio
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
