MORNING GLORY: The polls got Michigan badly wrong. Now Democrats may face a bigger reckoning

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Cite

Hewitt, H. (2026, October 15). MORNING GLORY: The polls got Michigan badly wrong. Now Democrats may face a bigger reckoning. Fox News. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/morning-glory-polls-got-michigan-badly-wrong-democrats-may-face-bigger-reckoning

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Fox News · collected 2026-10-15 · by Hugh Hewitt analysis

Quick Summary

This opinion piece criticizes polling inaccuracies in Michigan's primary election for Senate and argues that these polls mislead voters about Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's true stance. The author claims El-Sayed's victory over Haley Stevens was narrower than predicted, suggesting polls may have suppressed voter turnout against him. Furthermore, the article attacks El-Sayed’s political views and affiliations, portraying him as an extremist who fails to recognize Israel as a U.S. ally, while praising his opponent Mike Rogers as moderate and experienced.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-15, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

In Michigan's primary election on October 10, Abdul El-Sayed narrowly won over Haley Stevens by just 1%, contrary to pre-election polls predicting a double-digit margin for El-Sayed. These inaccurate polls may have suppressed voter turnout among Stevens' supporters. Critics argue that El-Sayed's victory, despite his close association with far-left figures like Hasan Piker and his controversial views on Israel and Iran, could signal broader challenges for Democrats who are seen as too extreme by moderate voters.

Written for “Michigan Polls Misleading” on 2026-10-15, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.65, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 81650: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-15

Story

📰 Michigan Polls Misleading
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Zeteo
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 33% hedged 3 of 9
“The articles discuss different aspects of political polling and elections but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
NPR
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 24 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A discusses general considerations about polls during midterm elections, while Article B focuses on a specific polling failure in Michigan's primary election.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 8% hedged 4 of 50 📰 publisher trust 68
“Article A discusses under-the-radar races for US midterm elections, while Article B focuses on polling inaccuracies specifically in Michigan.”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 11% hedged 4 of 38 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles discuss different aspects of Abdul El-Sayed's political campaign and do not describe the same specific incident or outcome.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 10% hedged 6 of 58 📰 publisher trust 64
“Article A discusses viral campaign ads for Senate races, while Article B focuses on polling inaccuracies in Michigan's primary election.”
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 2% hedged 1 of 42 📰 publisher trust 68
“While both articles discuss Abdul El-Sayed's race in Michigan, Article A mentions recent developments tightening polls three weeks before midterms, whereas Article B focuses on how past polling inaccuracies may affect voter behavior for the upcoming general election.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
37
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
3 of 37 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
68/100
Fox News's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-15 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Fox News · 4169 article(s) · 8 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 8 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Hugh Hewitt
12 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 In fact, El-Sayed won by 1% — not the 10%-18% that had been predicted.
🔮 The short answer: If a "blue wave" materializes, the nation’s national security will be greatly compromised and almost no new federal judges or cabinet appointments of any kind will occur.
🔮 Some would date the revolution in American media to June 1, 1980, when, at 6:00 PM Eastern Time, CNN began broadcasting around-the-clock news.
🔮 Central Command isn’t replicating the destroyer-heavy escort system of decades past when Iran threatened the Strait, but its new tactics are effective and the September decline in the price of oil demonstrated that, as October’s anticipated decline will as well.
🔮 A Fox News poll from a month earlier, taken Aug. 6–10, found that 75% of Black Michigan voters said they would vote for El-Sayed.
🔮 There is hardly a person on the planet who would presume to guess what Trump will do.
2026-09-23 · assertive framing · It’s time for Trump to put Iran down for good
🔮 There is a debate about whether the widespread adoption and application of artificial intelligence models will cost jobs, and if so, in which industries.
🔮 Across five battleground Senate races, Democrats have nominated "outliers"—hard-left radicals whose appeals to voters have sent their would-be constituents headed toward the GOP’s alternatives in each state where the races are being waged.
🔮 "Guess" is the operative word here, because if 0.01% of America understands the debate, I would be surprised.
🔮 Because state rules send the top four vote-getters to the general election, both candidates will appear on the ranked-choice ballot in November.
Also by Hugh Hewitt
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 12 articles by Hugh Hewitt →

Topics

Democrats Iran Israel Michigan Senate

Subjects

El-Sayed PERSON · 12× Democrats NORP · 4× Black NORP · 3× El-Sayed’s PERSON · 3× Iran GPE · 3× Israel GPE · 3× Michigan GPE · 3× Detroit GPE · 2× Piker PERSON · 2× Senate ORG · 1×

Narrative

Beyond simply having the far better man win an election, though, the victory of Rogers over El-Sayed will be a win for moderation and maturity and a rejection of the sort of extremism that Democrats have not flirted with outside of the deep-blue urban districts that sent "AOC," Ilhan Omar and the rest of "The Squad" to D.C. The United States needs two mainstream parties committed to playing between the 40-yard lines of American politics.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-15
🔮 In fact, El-Sayed won by 1% — not the 10%-18% that had been predicted.

Claims (37 extracted, 3 hedged)

The nationwide duel for the Senate is going on in the dark because polling this year has produced a series of spectacular busts, especially in Michigan, where polls on the primary battle between Democrats Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens posted double-digit lead after double-digit lead for El-Sayed. asserted
polls → go → Sayed
In fact, El-Sayed won by 1% — not the 10%-18% that had been predicted. asserted
that → win → %
It turns out those polls may have suppressed voter turnout and encouraged some Stevens voters to stay home. uncertain
polls → turn → voters
It is doubtful anyone following the news will stay home in Michigan in the general election. asserted
anyone → follow → election
He cannot own his past statements or campaign rhetoric. asserted
He → own → statements
He refuses to discuss his most prominent supporter in the primary: far-left streamer and YouTube personality Hasan Piker, who is part crazy and part extremist. asserted
who → refuse → primary
Piker carried El-Sayed over the finish line in the primary, but now voters are supposed to accept El-Sayed’s deflections when questioned about him. asserted
voters → carry → him
He’s done very little to hide his antipathy toward America’s ally Israel, going so far as to equate Israel with the Islamic Republic of Iran. asserted
He → do → Iran
That regime is responsible for the deaths of more than a thousand Americans, whether blown up at the U.S. Embassy or the Marine Corps barracks in Beirut in 1983 by Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, or this past weekend, when another American was killed by another Iranian proxy, the Houthis, via a Houthi missile attack on the international airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. asserted
American → blow → Riyadh
Still, El-Sayed cannot simply declare that Israel is our ally and Iran is our enemy. asserted
Iran → declare → ?
That should tell everyone all they need to know about El-Sayed and cost him on November 3. asserted
they → tell → November
All across the country, Democrats have nominated candidates from the fringe, from El-Sayed in Michigan to James Talarico in Texas, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota and Troy Jackson in Maine. asserted
Democrats → nominate → Maine
It’s as though the Democratic National Committee put zero effort into candidate recruitment, or maybe they just threw darts at a board marked with "Guaranteed to Lose" at the top. asserted
they → ’ → top
And the stories keep coming as opposition research reveals facts about El-Sayed’s past that he has tried to hide, including his claim of dual citizenship, which he has subsequently repudiated. uncertain
he → keep → which
With nearly three weeks left before polls close, it’s fair to expect that more such old tape and tweets will surface. asserted
tape → leave → ?
El-Sayed’s Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, is, by contrast, a mainstream and moderate Michigander, a former FBI agent and lieutenant in the Army before he went on to serve in the Michigan legislature and then for more than a decade in the House of Representatives, finishing there as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. asserted
he → go → Committee
(That’s significant, by the way, as the Intelligence Committee is a select committee, with members selected by the speaker and the House minority leader, traditionally because of their national security chops.) asserted
members → ’ → chops
And chances are it won’t be because of El-Sayed’s reported difficulty connecting with Detroit’s Black community, on which Democrats traditionally rely to win in the Wolverine State. asserted
Democrats → report → State
Report after report hints at the long-standing estrangement between the Black and Arab American communities in and around Detroit, but hardly any pollster knows how to account for the antipathy felt toward El-Sayed by Black voters. asserted
pollster → hint → voters
Campaign drop-bys by former Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Barack Obama are as close to "break glass, pull alarm" emergency signals as you can get, but they are not doing the trick. asserted
they → break → trick
Traditional Democrats know El-Sayed. asserted
Democrats → know → Sayed
He’s run for political office before. asserted
He → run → office
If anything, he’s the angriest major-party candidate we’ve seen in decades. asserted
we → ’ → decades
His refusal to answer basic questions about Piker, about his family’s alleged ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, and about the impact of "Medicare for All" on union-negotiated health care plans (the former would destroy the latter) marks El-Sayed as untrustworthy. asserted
former → answer → Sayed
An early call for Rogers on election night will secure the Senate majority for Republicans. asserted
call → secure → Republicans
(That result might have already been accomplished by victories for Sens. Susan Collins in Maine and John Sununu in New Hampshire, but Rogers getting the call early on November 3 would be a great relief.) uncertain
getting → accomplish → November
Beyond simply having the far better man win an election, though, the victory of Rogers over El-Sayed will be a win for moderation and maturity and a rejection of the sort of extremism that Democrats have not flirted with outside of the deep-blue urban districts that sent "AOC," Ilhan Omar and the rest of "The Squad" to D.C. The United States needs two mainstream parties committed to playing between the 40-yard lines of American politics. asserted
States → have → politics
Losing the Democrats to the control of extremists like El-Sayed would be terrible for everyone, including, and most especially, the Democratic Party. asserted
Losing → lose → Party
Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor and host of "The Hugh Hewitt Show" heard weekday afternoons from 3 PM to 6 PM ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel. asserted
Hewitt → hear → Channel
Hugh drives Americans home on the East Coast and to lunch on the West Coast on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. asserted
SNC → drive → platforms
He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel’s news roundtable, hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET. asserted
He → host → ET
A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. asserted
he → teach → Law
Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. asserted
Hewitt → launch → 1990
Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle. asserted
Hewitt → appear → cycle
Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. asserted
Hewitt → focus → Constitution
Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcasting. asserted
Hewitt → interview → broadcasting
This column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today. asserted
that → preview → show
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