Democrats must secure at least four additional seats in November's midterm elections to capture control of the 100-seat US Senate, where Republicans currently maintain a 53-47 majority.
asserted
Republicans → secure → majority
That prospect appeared unlikely at the start of the year.
asserted
prospect → appear → year
However, voter frustration over rising prices and the war in Iran, alongside the unpopularity of President Donald Trump, has made several contests competitive, including in states he carried comfortably in 2024.
asserted
he → rise → 2024
These critical races will determine control of the Senate:
asserted
races → determine → Senate
Maine
Maine represents the primary opportunity for a Democratic pickup, as the single state featuring a Republican incumbent seeking re-election where Trump lost in 2024.
asserted
Trump → represent → 2024
Republican Senator Susan Collins has distanced herself from Trump and refused to join Vice President JD Vance on the campaign trail in the state.
asserted
Collins → distance → state
During a debate earlier this month, Collins — who voted to convict Trump after he was impeached following the January 6 insurrection — acknowledged that she isn't the president's favorite senator and said he won't be coming to Maine.
asserted
he → vote → Maine
Democrats say she only votes against Trump in the Senate when it doesn't matter — such as when she voted against a sweeping tax-cut package last year after backing it in a procedural vote.
asserted
she → say → vote
Democrats hope voters will hold her accountable for helping confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court, which led to the overturning of a federal right to abortion.
asserted
which → hope → abortion
Democrats, however, have their own drama.
asserted
Democrats → have → drama
The party's original nominee, progressive oysterman Graham Platner, was pressured into withdrawing following sexual assault allegations, forcing the state party to scramble for a new candidate.
asserted
nominee → pressure → candidate
Platner has denied the allegations.
asserted
Platner → deny → allegations
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, another progressive, emerged as Platner's replacement.
asserted
Jackson → emerge → replacement
Jackson has nearly caught up to Collins on the fundraising front.
asserted
Jackson → catch → front
He has raised $20.4 million (£15.3m) so far, with $4 million unspent as of September 30, while Collins has raised $24 million, with $5.4 million still in the bank.
asserted
Collins → raise → bank
Outside groups are spending heavily as well.
asserted
groups → spend → ?
AdImpact, a monitoring service, predicts they will spend a total of $199 million on this election — equal to $171 for every adult in the state.
asserted
they → predict → state
Republican groups are outspending Democrats here, but most opinion polls show Jackson holding a narrow lead.
asserted
Jackson → outspende → lead
Ohio
Democrat Sherrod Brown is seeking to return to the Senate after losing his seat in 2024, and working-class frustration with the Iran war and rising prices may be giving him a tailwind.
uncertain
frustration → seek → tailwind
This time, Brown faces US Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the Senate to replace Vance when he left office for the White House.
asserted
he → face → House
The Ohio race has become one of the most expensive Senate contests in the nation.
asserted
race → become → nation
AdImpact estimates Republican groups will spend $246 million on ads, while Democrats will spend $177 million.
asserted
Democrats → estimate → million
Brown has $16 million available for the final stretch, while Husted has $8.8 million.
asserted
Husted → have → million
Recent polls show Brown leading by between 1 and 8 percentage points.
asserted
Brown → show → points
Alaska
Trump traveled to Alaska last week to shore up incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who is facing a stiff challenge from Democrat Mary Peltola, a former US Representative.
asserted
who → travel → Peltola
Alaska allows voters to rank their top picks rather than choosing a single candidate.
asserted
voters → allow → candidate
Voters will have four choices, including Sullivan, Peltola and another Dan Sullivan, a candidate Republicans have called a decoy in what they believe is a Democratic effort to confuse voters.
asserted
they → have → voters
Peltola has outraised Sullivan, but the Republican enters the final stretch of the campaign with $5.1 million in the bank, compared to $3.1 million for Peltola.
asserted
Republican → outraise → Peltola
Outside Republican groups have spent $33 million, while Democratic groups have spent $27 million.
asserted
groups → spend → million
Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, but recent polls show Peltola leading or tied with Sullivan.
asserted
Peltola → win → Sullivan
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994.
asserted
Democrat → win → 1994
James Talarico, a state representative, could break the streak.
uncertain
Talarico → break → streak
Talarico faces a historically weak Republican nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but Texas is still Texas — a big, conservative-leaning state that has dashed Democratic hopes repeatedly in recent years.
asserted
that → face → years
Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024.
asserted
Trump → win → 2024
Yet outside Republican groups have already spent a staggering $240 million to hold the seat after runoff voters nominated the scandal-plagued Paxton over incumbent Republican US Senator John Cornyn.
asserted
voters → spend → Cornyn
Trump endorsed Paxton even though Cornyn was widely believed to have an easier path to victory.
asserted
Cornyn → endorse → victory
Leaked audio has exposed daylight between Trump and Paxton, who privately told donors that the president's midterm convention hurt his campaign.
asserted
convention → expose → campaign
Democratic groups have spent $50 million on this race, far less than Republicans.
asserted
groups → spend → Republicans
But Talarico's campaign has outraised Paxton's by $49 million and reported $16 million more in its campaign coffers as of September 30.
asserted
campaign → outraise → September
Opinion polls show the race ranging from a tie to a 6-point Talarico lead.
asserted
race → show → lead
…and 39 more, not listed.
The Aporia
