These House races could determine which party is in control in the next Congress
There are 16 races that ABC News rates as Tossup going into Election Day.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot when voters head to the polls on Nov. 3.
uncertain
voters → determine → Nov.
But spread across the political map, there are 16 races that ABC News rates as tossup in which the outcomes are expected to come down to the wire and will be crucial to determining the balance of power in the House for the 120th Congress.
asserted
outcomes → spread → Congress
Democrats must net at least a three-seat gain to take control.
asserted
Democrats → net → control
Here are the races that ABC News rates as Tossup:
asserted
News → rat → Tossup
Florida 14: Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor vs. Republican Mike Beltran
Castor, a 10-term incumbent, is facing off against Trump-endorsed former trial lawyer Beltran.
asserted
Castor → face → Beltran
The seat became more competitive after Florida’s legislature redrew this district, putting Castor on the defensive.
asserted
legislature → become → defensive
Florida 22: Open -- Democrat Pia Dandiya vs. Republican Casey Askar
The battle for Florida’s newly drawn district spanning parts of Palm Beach and Broward counties and the city of Naples puts two political newcomers in the ring: Marine Corps veteran Askar against former teacher and U.S. Education Department official Dandiya.
asserted
battle → draw → Dandiya
As incumbent congresswoman Ashley Hinson runs for Senate, this historically red House seat in the Hawkeye State is now up for grabs.
asserted
seat → run → grabs
James, a state representative and chaplain, is running against Mitchell, a 29-year-old lobbyist and former state representative who worked on Trump’s transition team.
asserted
who → run → team
Trump won this district by 10 points in 2024, but the economic impacts from the Iran war and tariffs on this agriculture-heavy district have made this race competitive.
asserted
race → win → district
Kentucky 6: Open -- Republican Zach Dembo vs. Democrat Ralph Alvarado
GOP Rep. Andy Barr’s bid to fill Mitch McConnell’s long-held Senate seat leaves his Kentucky House seat open.
asserted
bid → fill → seat
Dembo, a former federal prosecutor and Navy JAG officer, faces Alvarado, a physician and former state senator.
asserted
Dembo → face → Alvarado
This district used to be more competitive, but redistricting in 2022 has made it friendlier to Republicans in recent years – though Barr was a consistent Democratic target since he was elected in 2012.
asserted
he → use → 2012
Michigan 4: Incumbent Republican Bill Huizenga vs. Democrat Sean McCann
Huizenga, who has served in Congress since 2011, is being challenged by McCann, a state senator.
asserted
who → serve → McCann
Huizenga does have incumbency advantage and outperformed Trump substantively in 2024, but his race appears to be tightening as many pollsters anticipate a sour political environment for the president’s party.
asserted
pollsters → have → party
Michigan 7: Incumbent Republican Tom Barrett vs. Democrat William Lawrence
First-term congressman and former Army helicopter pilot Barrett, who has repeatedly bucked Trump by voting to limit his war powers in Iran, hopes to keep his seat and defeat progressive candidate Lawrence, a co-founder of the progressive Sunrise Movement.
asserted
who → buck → Movement
Despite the split, Trump has campaigned in favor of Barrett’s reelection in the competitive swing district, where Democrat Elissa Slotkin beat a Republican in 2018 to flip this seat before she ultimately won a bid for Senate in 2024.
asserted
she → campaign → 2024
As Rep. John James runs to be Michigan’s next governor, his open seat in North Detroit is up for grabs.
asserted
seat → run → grabs
Trump carried this district by more than six points in 2024.
asserted
Trump → carry → 2024
Montana 1: Open -- Democrat Sam Forstag vs. Republican Aaron Flint
Rep. Ryan Zinke’s retirement has left this Montana seat open with no incumbency advantage for Republicans.
asserted
retirement → leave → Republicans
Flint, an Army veteran and conservative radio show host, is running against Forstag, a union leader and wildland firefighter smokejumper.
asserted
Flint → run → Forstag
Trump won this district covering western Montana by nearly 12 points in 2024.
asserted
Trump → win → 2024
North Carolina 1: Incumbent Democrat Don Davis vs. Republican Laurie Buckhout
In North Carolina, Davis, an Air Force veteran, is in a tough rematch against Trump-endorsed Buckhout, a retired Army colonel who served in Iraq.
asserted
who → endorse → Iraq
This district, which was redrawn, is a top target for Republicans and Davis is mentioned as the most-endangered Democratic incumbent despite the favorable nationwide political forecast for his party.
asserted
Davis → mention → party
Lawler is one of two Republicans running for reelection in Kamala Harris-won districts this cycle – six others opted against another term in the House.
asserted
others → run → House
Lawler has kept this seat in a blue state since 2022, outperforming Trump in 2024 by 2.8%.
asserted
Lawler → keep → %
Lawler, who secured State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions during the Trump tax bill negotiations, is running against Conley, an Army combat veteran.
asserted
who → secure → Conley
Ohio 7: Incumbent Republican Max Miller vs. Democrat Brian Poindexter
Miller’s reelection bid has been hampered by allegations of domestic assault against his ex-wife Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno.
asserted
bid → hamper → Moreno
Miller, a former Trump aide, has flatly denied wrongdoing and has not been charged with any crimes and refused to drop out of the race despite widespread calls from Republicans.
asserted
Miller → deny → Republicans
Trump stopped short of calling on Miller to withdraw last summer, calling the situation "sad.”
asserted
Trump → stop → situation
He’s being challenged by Poindexter, a union organizer and ironworker.
asserted
He → challenge → Poindexter
Ohio 9: Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur vs. Republican Derek Merrin
The longest-serving woman in congressional history, Kaptur wants to keep her seat in this Toledo-area district for a 23rd term.
asserted
Kaptur → serve → term
She’s facing Merrin, a real estate investor and former state representative.
asserted
She → face → Merrin
Kaptur narrowly defeated Merrin in 2024, even as Trump won the district by 6.5 points.
asserted
Trump → defeat → points
Redistricting has shifted the district more to the right, but Kaptur could be aided by Democrat interest in the Buckeye State’s Senate race.
uncertain
Kaptur → shift → race
Pennsylvania 8: Incumbent Republican Rob Bresnahan vs. Democrat Paige Cognetti
Trump-backed Bresnahan, who represents Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, is seeking reelection against Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton.
asserted
who → back → Scranton
Bresnahan helped Republicans gain control of the House by flipping this seat in 2024.
asserted
Republicans → help → 2024
Texas 15: Democrat Bobby Pulido vs. incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz
De La Cruz, who was first elected in 2022, is seeking to keep her seat in a South Texas district that is nearly 80% Latino.
asserted
that → elect → district
Redistricting expanded the 15th into Hidalgo County and shifted some of her GOP voters into neighboring districts.
asserted
Redistricting → expand → districts
Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning Tejano singer, is challenging De La Cruz in a race that could test Trump’s standing with Latino voters.
uncertain
that → win → voters
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
