“The first time, I had two things to do; run the country and survive....
asserted
I → have → country
And the second time, I run the country and the world.”
asserted
I → run → country
Donald Trump’s blunt statement in April last year set the tone for his second term in office, one that has seen the US president adopt an increasingly aggressive foreign policy.
asserted
president → set → policy
With largely unchallenged authority, Trump has introduced sweeping global tariffs, forcibly removed the leader of Venezuela, threatened to seize Greenland and launched a war on Iran.
asserted
Trump → introduce → Iran
However, when millions of Americans go to the polls in the US midterms on Tuesday, November 3, the billionaire president may finally find himself reigned in.
uncertain
himself → go → Tuesday
Think tank Chatham House has dubbed the 2026 midterms a “rare foreign policy election”, echoing voter fury in 2006 when George W. Bush’s handling of the Iraq war cost Republicans their majority.
asserted
handling → dub → majority
The Independent looks at the pivotal election and why it matters far beyond the borders of the United States.
asserted
it → look → States
The midterm elections are held half way through every four-year presidency, and while Trump himself is not on the ballot they are often seen as a verdict on the commander-in-chief’s overall performance.
asserted
they → hold → performance
More than 100 million people are expected to cast ballots, if turnout is anything like the previous midterm in 2022.
asserted
turnout → expect → 2022
US voters will elect members of the House of Representatives and Senate and governors in states across the country.
asserted
voters → elect → country
Trump’s Republican party currently control both, but both are at risk of falling to the Democrats this year.
asserted
both → control → Democrats
If Democrats do regain control of Congress, they will have powers to launch investigations into the government and potentially block some of the administration’s policies.
asserted
they → regain → policies
While they will have limits, the opposition party could still prove to be a significant thorn in Trump’s side as he sees out his last two years in the White House.
uncertain
he → have → House
What do the polls show?
asserted
polls → show → What
Approval of Trump's performance is at an all-time low of 30 per cent earlier this month, according to Pew Research Center polling.
uncertain
Approval → accord → polling
Trump has repeatedly told voters to act like he is on the ballot, but given his record unpopularity, the strategy could backfire spectacularly.
uncertain
strategy → tell → unpopularity
Most major election forecasters predict that the Democrats will flip the House of Representatives.
asserted
Democrats → predict → Representatives
A poll from Silver Bulletin gave this a 90 percent chance and upwards of a 70 percent chance of regaining control of the Senate.
asserted
poll → give → Senate
Dr Andrew Payne, US foreign policy researcher for Chatham House, said: “The midterms are traditionally seen as a referendum on the performance of the incumbent president, and with Trump’s overall approval ratings at a near-record low, history is not on his side.
asserted
history → say → side
However, a landslide for the Democrats is far from assured.
asserted
landslide → assure → Democrats
Republicans could benefit from continued skepticism towards Democrats, a Republican spending advantage on campaigns, and fears from moderate voters over some primary wins by left-wingers.
uncertain
Republicans → benefit → wingers
In a phrase famously coined by campaign strategist James Carville during Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential bid; “it’s the economy, stupid”.
asserted
it → coin → bid
Inflation remains high, and half of registered voters surveyed by Reuters/Ipsos cited the cost of living as the most important factor in how they will vote.
asserted
they → remain → factor
Trump’s tariff strategy has been blamed for pushing up prices while his deeply unpopular war on Iran has sent gas prices soaring.
asserted
war → blame → prices
Immigration is another major concern, one which the Trump administration claim they will have tackled thanks to Department of Homeland Security data showing a 95 percent drop in migrants apprehended at the southwest border compared to former President Joe Biden's administration.
uncertain
they → claim → administration
However, raids by ICE agents have been deeply divisive and there have been fatal incidents involving federal immigration agents in Maine, Minnesota and Texas.
asserted
raids → involve → Maine
Artificial intelligence and data centers, cryptocurrency, abortion and Israel could also influence voters in individual races.
uncertain
intelligence → influence → races
Why the elections matter for the rest of the world
While people are traditionally more focused on domestic issues when casting their vote, the prices of diesel, utilities and goods in the US are inherently linked to the conflict in the Middle East and Trump’s hardball trade tactics.
asserted
prices → matter → East
Dr Payne warned this is all bad news for Republicans.
asserted
this → warn → Republicans
“There are two important exceptions to the rule that US voters don’t care about foreign policy – and they both apply this year,” he said.
asserted
he → be → policy
“One, voters care about foreign affairs when an administration’s choices directly affect their daily lives.
asserted
choices → care → lives
Two, voters care about what foreign policy choices reveal about a president’s competence as commander-in-chief.”
asserted
choices → care → chief
If the Republicans, and by implication Trump, are punished at the polls on these issues it could lead to a change in direction for the last two years of the presidency.
uncertain
it → punish → presidency
At the very least, with Trump unable to serve a third term he may face increasing pressure from his own party to change tack.
uncertain
he → serve → tack
However, given Trump’s mercurial nature this is far from guaranteed.
asserted
this → give → nature
“After his 2006 midterm defeat, president Bush did not change course,” Dr Payne explained.
asserted
Payne → change → course
“Instead, he defied the mandate voters had given by escalating an unpopular war in the Middle East.
asserted
voters → defy → East
How the results could impact the Iran war
uncertain
results → impact → war
When it comes to Iran, Trump remains unpredictable in his course of action, flipping between threats and diplomacy on a regular basis.
asserted
Trump → come → basis
The president has avoided resuming attacks in the run up to the elections to avoid reminding Americans of the unpopular and costly war - but if Republicans do well in the midterms, this may embolden him further.
uncertain
this → avoid → him
…and 37 more, not listed.
The Aporia
