- Published
With two years of his presidency remaining, Donald Trump, who has dominated American politics over the past decade and transformed it in remarkable ways, is facing potentially pivotal elections.
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who → publish → elections
And the midterm elections on Tuesday that will decide control of Congress come at a difficult moment for his Republican Party.
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that → decide → Party
Voters overwhelmingly say they are most concerned about the cost of living.
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they → say → living
Food and fuel prices have soared in part due to the president's aggressive tariffs and unpopular war with Iran, so it will be top of mind as many head to the polls.
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many → soar → polls
Trump, who has faced record low approval ratings in recent months, has been campaigning hard, headlining dozens of rallies across the country.
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who → face → country
But high prices are a concern for voters on all sides - which helps explain why he has been campaigning in previously safe Republican territory, appearing in Iowa and Kansas during a final weekend blitz.
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he → help → blitz
His party has also poured hundreds of millions of dollars of campaign advertising into these traditionally safe contests, such as the Senate race in Kansas.
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party → pour → Kansas
"When they start spending hard American dollars on political advertising in a state that they should be winning, that's how you know that they think they're in trouble," Carrie Dann, the managing editor of the Cook Political Report, which analyses campaigns and elections, told the BBC.
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which → start → BBC
"The spending [in Kansas] is going to be far more than Republicans ever anticipated," she added.
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she → go → Kansas
That points to a party that is approaching these elections on the defensive.
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that → point → defensive
At many of his rallies, Trump has also made a plea to voters.
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"In this election, I'm asking you to pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot," he said last month.
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he → ask → ballot
But this plea - which he made again in Iowa on Sunday - gets to the heart of a critical question: Is he still an electoral asset for his Republican Party?
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he → make → Party
Trump returned to the White House as a formidable force following his crushing 2024 election win - and had the healthy approval ratings to match.
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Trump → return → ratings
Before that, during the previous midterm elections in 2022, his endorsement was courted by Republicans who saw it as vital to success.
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who → court → success
Now, with the war with Iran dragging on and hitting many Americans in the pocket, his approval ratings have sunk.
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ratings → drag → pocket
The price of a gallon of diesel - which was $3.75 before the war started in February - hit a record high of $6.52 in September.
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war → start → September
"I literally just had my son drive across the country, and he called me in every state and told me the price of gas," one voter in Iowa told me.
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voter → have → me
Inflation has also ticked up from 3% when Trump took office to 3.7% today, and economists estimate it would have been lower without his sweeping regime of global tariffs.
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it → tick → tariffs
There is concern among Republicans that this economic picture has left them vulnerable in typically safe races, in states such as Texas, Ohio and Kansas.
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picture → be → Texas
"The southern states, the midwestern states, the American heartland - that is where Republicans tend to thrive," said Stephen Hawkins, the global director of research at the pollster More in Common.
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Hawkins → tend → Common
"But that is where the Senate races that are so interesting are playing out right now."
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that → play → ?
"Places where President Trump won by 10, 12, 15 points just two years ago in the presidential race are now states where Democrats have a very viable chance of taking a Senate seat," he said.
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he → win → seat
When I asked voters in Iowa, a state Trump won in 2024 that has been hit by soaring fuel and fertiliser costs, whether the president would make people more or less likely to back Republicans - the answer was revealing.
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answer → ask → Republicans
"With the current climate, I would think possibly less, believe it or not," Paul Ross told me outside a busy college football game.
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Ross → think → game
"As a Republican myself, I would think it might be detrimental."
"I think it definitely puts voters off, there's no doubt about that, and I do think it probably raises the Democratic side to a level that isn't always there, just because it's Donald Trump," added Zach Shimp.
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Shimp → think → level
"He's got us in the war," another voter, Rose Heming, said.
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voter → get → war
Many voters, including in solidly Republican states, are hurting financially and polls suggest they may want to make this known at the ballot box on Tuesday.
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But it is too simplistic to think this backdrop of war, tariffs and soaring price will usher in a thumping Democratic victory in the House, Senate and governors' races.
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backdrop → think → races
Many Republican voters are angry with the president, but not so angry that they would vote for a Democrat.
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they → vote → Democrat
It is a mistake to assume that Trump's weak approval ratings translate to increasing popularity for the other side.
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ratings → assume → side
In fact, final polls taken before the elections suggest Trump's approval rating is around 38%.
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rating → take → elections
That is low - but the same polls, including a national NBC poll released on Sunday, external, indicate that only 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively.
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% → include → Party
Voter frustration is no guarantee of a willingness to switch sides on Tuesday.
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frustration → switch → Tuesday
"We like to stay out of people's business," Tim McKinnon, a Republican in Iowa who voted for Trump in 2024 told me last month.
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who → like → me
"And so [Trump's] world stage interventions time after time after time - we don't love it.
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we → love → it
"We didn't expect him to necessarily be a perfect choir boy obviously," his wife, Michelle, added.
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wife → expect → ?
"We voted for the underbelly of what he was standing for."
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he → vote → what
The Democratic Party cannot rely on voters like the McKinnons, who are frustrated with elements of Trump's recent agenda, to back them.
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who → rely → them
They do not think Democrats will ever reflect their Christian, conservative values.
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Democrats → think → values
…and 39 more, not listed.
The Aporia
