On Tuesday, voters across the United States will head to the polls to cast a ballot in the 2026 midterm elections.
asserted
voters → head → elections
The race is expected to serve as a referendum on Republican President Donald Trump’s job performance so far, at the halfway mark of his second term.
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race → expect → term
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Maintaining the Republican majority in both chambers of Congress will be key for the success of Trump’s legislative agenda in his final two years.
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Maintaining → 4rise → years
But control of the US Congress could hinge on a handful of closely contested Senate and House of Representatives races nationwide.
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control → hinge → races
Candidates, political parties and outside groups are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the contests, with major political action committees (PACs), including those associated with billionaire tech CEO Elon Musk, fuelling the spending battle.
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committees → pour → battle
Which races are costing the most, and who is bankrolling the fight for control of Congress?
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who → cost → Congress
This year’s midterms are projected to break records for the total amount of spending in a political election cycle.
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midterms → project → cycle
The advertising firm AdImpact estimated that $11.21bn has been spent in total for advertisements and reservations as of October 26, compared with $3.2bn for the 2024 presidential election season.
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11.21bn → estimate → season
Among the most expensive individual races are those for toss-up Senate seats.
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those → toss → seats
Battles in Texas, Ohio and Michigan rank as the costliest.
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Battles → rank → costliest
The race in Texas, for instance, is projected to shatter spending records for a US Senate race.
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race → project → race
A Democrat has not won statewide office in Texas since 1994, but Senate hopeful James Talarico aims to break the left-wing party’s losing streak.
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Talarico → win → streak
Nearly every major poll suggests Talarico has a slim lead over his Republican rival, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
uncertain
Talarico → suggest → rival
CNN, for instance, projected in late October that Talarico had 49 percent support, compared with Paxton’s 43 percent.
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Talarico → project → percent
The Texas secretary of state’s office released data indicating that nearly 4.5 million Texans cast their ballots in the first week of early voting alone.
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Texans → release → voting
This election cycle, candidate campaigns and outside groups have spent more than $534m on the Texas race.
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campaigns → spend → race
Talarico has outpaced his opponent in fundraising.
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Talarico → outpace → fundraising
The Democrat has raised $146m, compared with Paxton’s roughly $22m.
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Democrat → raise → Paxton
However, Paxton has benefitted from significantly more outside spending, with nearly $300m spent on his behalf, compared with about $80m for Talarico.
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Paxton → benefit → Talarico
Some $37m for Paxton has come from MAGA Inc, a super PAC aligned with President Donald Trump.
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m → come → Trump
Ohio is considered the second-most expensive Senate race this cycle.
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Ohio → consider → ?
More than $435m has been spent so far on the contest between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted.
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m → spend → Brown
A Marist Poll released on October 20 suggested Brown was leading Husted by four points, while other surveys showed the two candidates virtually tied.
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candidates → release → points
So far, roughly $248m has reportedly been spent on the Republican Husted, compared with $187m on the Democrat Brown.
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m → spend → Brown
Michigan has also seen record spending in its Senate contest between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
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Michigan → see → Rogers
An estimated $333m has been spent on that race.
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m → spend → race
As in Texas, Democrat El-Sayed has led in fundraising but lagged behind his Republican opponent in outside spending.
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Sayed → lead → spending
Rogers has raised about $23m, while El-Sayed has brought in approximately $54m. Outside groups, meanwhile, have spent approximately $169m supporting Rogers and roughly $94m supporting El-Sayed.
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groups → raise → Sayed
A late October poll released by Michigan State University has El-Sayed leading Rogers 48 percent to 45.5, but the race is expected to be tight.
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race → release → 45.5
How do fundraising totals compare for Democrats and Republicans?
Republicans have out-raised – and out-spent – Democrats during this year’s midterm cycle.
Candidates and political groups are required to file quarterly reports on campaign donations and spending with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
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Candidates → compare → Commission
According to the FEC’s filings, Republicans have raised more than Democrats since the start of 2025.
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Republicans → accord → 2025
That cash advantage was noticeable among the committees that lead each party.
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that → lead → party
For instance, the Democratic National Committee (DNC), which heads the Democratic Party, spent more than it took in.
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it → head → more
It raised nearly $252.3m but spent about $252.8m.
The Republican National Committee, meanwhile, received about $341m and paid out roughly $303m, as of October 14.
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Committee → raise → October
An analysis by the publication Politico, which looked at donors from January 2025 through October, found that Republicans are more reliant on large donors, like Musk, as their small-dollar donor base has grown smaller.
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base → look → Musk
Most donations from everyday people, Politico found, have gone straight to Trump, not the candidates.
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Politico → find → Trump
But it is unclear whether the Republican Party’s fundraising and spending prowess will be enough to counter Democrats’ enthusiasm.
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prowess → counter → enthusiasm
Polls project that the Democratic Party will likely take back the US House and is favoured to control the US Senate as well.
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Party → project → Senate
The top donors during this campaign have overwhelmingly backed Republicans.
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donors → back → Republicans
On the right, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk gave $446m, and Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein of the shipping supply chain company Uline donated about $150m.
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Uihlein → give → m.
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
