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Late deciders favor Republicans in key Senate races by nine-point margin despite strong Democratic lead: Poll

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Schroppe, C. (2026, November 2). Late deciders favor Republicans in key Senate races by nine-point margin despite strong Democratic lead: Poll. Washington Examiner. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4787536/late-deciders-favor-republicans-despite-democratic-lead/

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Washington Examiner · collected 2026-11-02 · by Carter Schroppe

Quick Summary

A recent poll conducted jointly by The New York Times and Siena University shows that late-deciding voters in seven key Senate races favor Republicans over Democrats by a nine-point margin. This finding contrasts with the overall trend where Democrats have an advantage, highlighting how voter decisions made close to election day could impact the outcomes of these races on Tuesday.
Written by AI on 2026-11-02, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of November 2, 2026, a new poll conducted jointly by The New York Times and Siena University indicates that Democratic candidates lead in seven key Senate races ahead of the midterm elections. Despite overall trends favoring Democrats, voters who decided recently show a nine-point preference for Republican candidates. Specifically, Democratic leads are evident in states like Michigan (53% to 42%), Texas (50% to 43%), and Kansas, where they have not won since 1932. The poll surveyed 5,708 likely voters, with margins of error between 3.3 and 4.8 percentage points, suggesting significant uncertainty remains in many races.

Written for “Polls Suggest Close Senate Races” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 2 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Polls Suggest Close Senate Races
Politics · 3 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
2
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
100%
2 of 2 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
70/100
Washington Examiner's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
3
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-02 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

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Who wrote this

Carter Schroppe
59 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “There are still some undecided voters, and voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin,” according to the New York Times’s reporting of its last poll conducted alongside Siena University that will be released before Tuesday’s midterm elections.
2026-11-02 · speculative framing · Late deciders favor Republicans in key Senate races by nine-point margin despite strong Democratic lead: Poll
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🔮 Moody is widely expected to win her bid for reelection this week, but Nixon and other Florida Democrats have been broadly competitive in a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 14 years.
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Also by Carter Schroppe
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2026-11-02 · Washington Examiner
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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 59 articles by Carter Schroppe →

Topics

Democratic Republicans Senate Siena University the New York Times’s

Subjects

Republicans NORP · 2× Democratic NORP · 1× Senate ORG · 1× Siena University ORG · 1× the New York Times’s ORG · 1×

Narrative

“There are still some undecided voters, and voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin,” according to the New York Times’s reporting of its last poll conducted alongside Siena University that will be released before Tuesday’s midterm elections.
framing: speculative · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-02
🔮 “There are still some undecided voters, and voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin,” according to the New York Times’s reporting of its last poll conducted alongside Siena University that will be released before Tuesday’s midterm elections.
2026-11-02 · Washington Examiner
Late deciders favor Republicans in key Senate races by nine-point margin despite strong Democratic lead: Poll · speculative framing

Claims (2 extracted, 2 hedged)

Likely voters who decided which candidate to support only recently in seven key Senate races favor Republicans despite an overall Democratic advantage, according to a new poll released Sunday night. uncertain
who → decide → poll
“There are still some undecided voters, and voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin,” according to the New York Times’s reporting of its last poll conducted alongside Siena University that will be released before Tuesday’s midterm elections. uncertain
that → be → elections
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