As Americans head to the polls on Tuesday in the much-anticipated midterms, the record number of voters identifying as independent could prove decisive for control of the US Congress and state legislatures.
uncertain
number → head → Congress
Nearly half of US voters – as many as 117 million adults – now identify as politically independent, with the two major parties, Democrats and Republicans, jockeying for their votes.
asserted
parties → identify → votes
Recommended Stories
list of 4 items- list 1 of 4Trump rallies in Iowa, Kansas to maintain Republican control of US Senate
- list 2 of 4Sullivan vows to honour Alaska race outcome, US judge dismisses DOJ lawsuit
- list 3 of 4How will the Iran war shape the outcome of the US midterm vote?
- list 4 of 4Why did Democrat Haley Stevens just endorse a Republican for US Senate?
asserted
Stevens → maintain → Senate
At the same time, independent or third-party candidates win few federal or state seats.
asserted
candidates → win → seats
The Democratic and Republican parties have dominated US politics, from state legislatures to the US Congress and the presidency, for generations.
asserted
parties → dominate → generations
“The whole [electoral] system is built to frustrate the independence of voters,” says Rick Bennett, the former Republican Party chair in Maine, where he is running to become only the third independent governor in the state’s history.
asserted
he → build → history
Bennett’s candidacy runs headlong into one of the most stubborn contradictions in US politics: While millions of eligible voters reject Republican and Democratic labels, far fewer will cast their ballots for independent candidates.
asserted
fewer → run → candidates
“For decades, candidates outside the Democratic and Republican parties have struggled to achieve [a high] level of support,” political scientist AJ Simmons said.
asserted
Simmons → struggle → support
“[But] 2026 is shaping up to be one of the strongest election cycles for independent candidates in recent memory.”
asserted
2026 → shape → memory
Who are independents and how will they vote?
asserted
they → vote → ?
According to the Pew Research Center’s annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey, 44 percent of US adults identify as politically independent.
uncertain
percent → accord → adults
This is in contrast to 29 percent who identify as Democrat and 28 percent as Republican.
asserted
who → identify → Republican
But there is a caveat: Most self-described independents still gravitate towards one of the major parties.
asserted
independents → be → parties
Independents who express absolutely no partisan leaning make up only about 7-10 percent of the total electorate.
asserted
who → express → electorate
These “true” independents are sought after by candidates because they are persuadable, the core of the coveted so-called swing vote in a deeply divided and partisan electorate and political system.
asserted
they → seek → electorate
In the 2026 midterm elections, 52 percent of likely independent voters are supporting Democrats, while 39 percent back Republicans, polling firm Marist suggests.
uncertain
Marist → support → Republicans
Frustration with President Donald Trump is permeating the midterm electoral landscape, with independent respondents more than three times as likely to say their vote is mainly against the president, and 28 percent saying they are voting for “change”.
asserted
they → permeate → change
Why does the US have a two-party system?
asserted
US → have → system
The US does not legally restrict elections to two parties, and many local officials are not party-affiliated.
asserted
officials → restrict → parties
But for more powerful federal and statewide seats like Tuesday’s House of Representatives and Senate races, the winner-take-all electoral system and single-member congressional districts work against outsiders and can discourage voters from backing them.
asserted
system → work → them
Even substantial support for a minor party is rarely concentrated enough in one district to win a congressional seat.
asserted
support → concentrate → seat
Voters, too, can unknowingly reinforce the system.
asserted
Voters → reinforce → system
Polling trends and data further suggest that voters who identify as or prefer an independent will often instead back a Republican or Democrat they see as more politically viable.
asserted
they → suggest → Republican
Voters are also reluctant to support “spoilers”, who may peel away votes from one of the two major-party candidates.
uncertain
who → support → candidates
Why do third parties struggle to win US elections?
asserted
parties → struggle → elections
Bernard Tamas, a political scientist at Valdosta State University who studies third parties, said that although laws are often blamed for keeping third-party candidates off the ballot, “there is very little evidence that legal barriers are undermining these candidates”.
asserted
barriers → study → candidates
The real barrier, he says, is money.
asserted
he → say → ?
A total of $14.8bn was spent on federal elections during the 2024 presidential cycle, and the 2026 midterms are projected to surpass that, reaching up to $11.6bn in political advertisement spending alone.
asserted
midterms → spend → spending
The Democratic National Committee (DNC), which heads the Democratic Party, raised nearly $252.3m during the 2026 midterm campaign cycle while the Republican National Committee (RNC) took in about $341m.
Unlike other democracies, the US “offers virtually no public support” or funding to political parties and does not set limits on campaign spending”, Tamas said.
asserted
Tamas → head → spending
Independent candidates “raise very little money” and are less well known by voters.
asserted
candidates → raise → voters
Why don’t more Americans vote independent?
asserted
Americans → vote → ?
Lesley Shedd, a Republican strategist, told Al Jazeera that the surge in voters identifying as independents obscures their support for one of the two major parties.
asserted
surge → tell → parties
“When somebody says they are independent, they really are a Republican or Democrat but they maybe don’t agree with the party on absolutely every issue,” Shedd said.
asserted
Shedd → say → issue
“Or they [just] don’t want to feel as though they are part of the culture of the swamp of [Washington] DC.”
asserted
they → want → DC
The real test for independent candidates is persuading Americans to vote for them, not just a “protest vote” against the system.
asserted
test → persuade → system
And voters are reluctant to cast a “wasted” ballot, Simmons said, given the most competitive candidates are Democrats or Republicans.
asserted
candidates → cast → ballot
The Independent Leadership Council, launched in July by former Democrat-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin, provides donors and campaign resources for independent congressional candidates.
asserted
Council → launch → candidates
The project has raised more than $10m.
But the longer-term test, analysts maintain, is whether independent candidates can be viable across multiple races and election cycles.
Will third-party candidates influence the 2026 midterms?
asserted
candidates → raise → midterms
None holds a state governor seat.
asserted
None → hold → seat
Bennett, the independent Maine candidate, is one of just 11 independent or third-party candidates vying for gubernatorial or US Senate seats whom Simmons expects to surpass the 5 percent vote threshold often used to gauge electoral viability.
asserted
Simmons → vie → viability
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
