We’re updating this forecast to move Kansas from Lean R to Toss-up, and Nebraska from Likely R to Lean R.
Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.
The odds remain in Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts' favor in Nebraska.
asserted
odds → update → Nebraska
A larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset.
uncertain
Osborn → expect → upset
We still consider Senate control a toss-up.
asserted
control → consider → ?
Seven states are most likely to decide the majority.
asserted
states → decide → majority
On a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 55 seats.
asserted
ceiling → rise → seats
A good night for the Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats.
uncertain
them → see → seats
—
As Iran looms large, can the GOP keep the faithful?
asserted
GOP → loom → faithful
It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms.
asserted
It → seem → midterms
The first is frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to reject Republicans.
asserted
first → reject → Republicans
It includes growing numbers of independent, rural, and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat.
asserted
they → include → Democrat
That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, and Fox’s most recent national poll.
asserted
Democrats → ’ → ballot
The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate.
asserted
electorate → waver → Senate
They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.
asserted
they → say → most
That’s the right conclusion from most of the battleground Senate polling.
asserted
That → ’ → polling
In other words, if Democrats have such a wide lead in the House, won’t the Senate fall too?
asserted
Senate → have → House
Both are true, and a big lead in the House doesn’t necessarily translate to the Senate.
asserted
lead → translate → Senate
These voters are all in the same electorate, and they only seem divorced from each other because the House and Senate maps are so far apart this year.
asserted
maps → seem → other
The president’s declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the issues will likely deliver them the House, and possibly by many seats.
uncertain
rating → decline → seats
Those advantages have also allowed the blue team to play in a lot of Senate races that Republicans thought were unreachable, but only to the point of making them battlegrounds.
asserted
them → allow → point
The road to a Senate majority goes through several states that Trump won by 11 points or more.
asserted
Trump → go → points
Democrats can win any of these races.
asserted
Democrats → win → races
If Republicans turn out and stay loyal to their party, the climb for the left will be steep.
asserted
climb → turn → left
That’s why the Senate is a toss-up.
asserted
Senate → ’ → ?
Voters could give Democrats a majority, and maybe with several seats to spare.
uncertain
Voters → give → seats
They could also let the Republicans keep control.
uncertain
Republicans → let → control
We’ll find out next week.
asserted
We → find → ?
Democrats have strong advantages on most key issues
In his 11-year political career, President Donald Trump has triumphed over almost all of the threats to his power.
asserted
Trump → have → power
The exception was the coronavirus pandemic, which was the top issue for voters in the 2020 election and ushered in the Biden presidency.
asserted
which → usher → presidency
It was also one of the few threats that Trump has faced from abroad.
asserted
Trump → face → that
This time, Trump and the Republicans face a new foreign opponent: Iran.
asserted
Trump → face → opponent
The administration’s decision to start joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes against the nation in February has cast a shadow over the GOP.
asserted
decision → start → GOP
First, it has impacted Trump’s approval rating, which will decide the fate of many congressional Republicans and has fallen since the war began.
asserted
war → impact → Republicans
It was 44% in the last pre-war survey and sits at 36% now.
asserted
It → sit → %
The war has also given Democrats advantages on the top issues.
asserted
war → give → issues
In Fox’s October survey, Iran played a role in four issues that more than two-thirds of voters said they were concerned about: inflation (85%), gas prices (83%), government leadership (79%), and the war in Iran itself (75%).
asserted
they → play → Iran
Most voters said they preferred the Democrats to handle those issues: 16 points on inflation, 12 points on gas prices, 11 points on leadership, and 9 points on foreign policy.
asserted
Democrats → say → policy
Republicans are competitive on home turf
Still, voters are not convinced that the Senate should change hands.
asserted
Senate → convince → hands
That comes down to the territory.
asserted
That → come → territory
Trump won seven of the 11 battleground states in 2024, and seven of them by double digits.
asserted
Trump → win → digits
That includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.
asserted
That → include → Alaska
…and 53 more, not listed.
The Aporia
