Four weeks out from the election, and for most Americans, it’s time for football, foliage, and flannel.
asserted
it → ’ → football
In 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which ushered in the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, was a turning point in John McCain’s presidential campaign.
asserted
which → usher → campaign
He was even with Barack Obama when the news broke, then trailed in every survey since.
asserted
news → break → survey
He lost the popular vote by seven points.
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He → lose → points
Surprises have come from home and abroad.
asserted
Surprises → come → ?
In 1980, it was President Carter’s inability to resolve the Iranian hostage crisis.
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it → resolve → crisis
Some have more impact than others.
asserted
Some → have → others
It’s not clear that news about George W. Bush’s DUI changed much about the 2000 election, nor that James Comey’s letter to Congress about Hillary Clinton’s email server was the decider in President Trump’s 2016 win.
asserted
letter → ’ → win
Still, these surprises all have one thing in common: they happened in presidential years.
asserted
they → have → years
It’s not as though we don’t get breaking news during the last month of a midterm cycle.
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we → ’ → cycle
Take 2018, when the GOP warned about a migrant caravan, Brett Kavanaugh sought a seat on the Supreme Court, and a gunman opened fire at a Pittsburgh synagogue.
asserted
gunman → take → synagogue
For the most part, midterm October surprises affect individual races, not the overall trajectory of a party.
asserted
surprises → affect → party
In the last midterm, for example, Herschel Walker faced damaging allegations about paying for former girlfriends’ abortions, while in Florida, the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian gave Gov. Ron DeSantis the opportunity to show Floridians that he could be trusted to handle a crisis.
uncertain
he → face → crisis
Voters haven’t changed their minds about Trump or the party they’d prefer to elect to the House for several months now, so local stories like these are the ones to watch in the final weeks of the campaign.
asserted
stories → change → campaign
Besides, the biggest surprises come after October.
asserted
surprises → come → October
Democrats are playing more defense than they’d like
For what still looks like a good – maybe great – year for the Democrats, the party is playing defense in some unexpected places.
asserted
party → play → places
That starts with Minnesota, where Republicans have a star candidate in Michele Tafoya.
asserted
Republicans → start → Tafoya
The former NFL sideline reporter has been up and down the state with a message to "stop the fraud" if elected to the Senate.
asserted
reporter → stop → Senate
That’s been a hot issue in the state, and it’s allowed her to target the Democrat, Peggy Flanagan, who currently serves as lieutenant governor.
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who → allow → governor
Then there’s New Hampshire, another state where Democrats are in the driver’s seat thanks to this political environment, but where the GOP has a favorable match up.
asserted
GOP → ’ → match
Former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu is back on the ballot this year against Chris Pappas, who seems to have had trouble animating his voters.
asserted
who → seem → voters
Solid Republican states could have closer-than-expected margins
Meanwhile, Republicans are spending money in surprising places.
uncertain
Republicans → have → places
In Arkansas, Sen. Tom Cotton has thrown $13.6 million at his reelection bid, outspending his Democratic opponent Hallie Schoffner 65 to 1.
asserted
Cotton → throw → opponent
Cotton may have ambitions beyond his current role in the Senate, but in 2020, his spending fell short of $1 million.
uncertain
spending → have → million
Idahoans got a letter in the mail from Vice President Vance last month warning them that Democrats could "pour millions of dollars" into independent challenger Todd Achilles; Vance called it an "urgent national race."
uncertain
Vance → get → it
Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith has been running ads attacking her Democratic challenger Scott Colom in recent weeks, calling him a "failed prosecutor" with a "chilling" record on crime; that state has seen $5 million in ad spending so far this year.
asserted
state → run → spending
In 2018, Rick Scott won his Senate race by 0.1 percentage points while DeSantis won his by 0.4 points.
asserted
DeSantis → win → points
Two years later, the presidential race was decided by just 3.4 points.
asserted
race → decide → points
Nebraska and South Dakota could be closer-than-expected for Republicans as well.
uncertain
Nebraska → expect → Republicans
In this week’s Power Rankings, one Carolina gets more competitive while another drifts away from the GOP, and Democrats get nervous about a governor’s race in Oregon.
asserted
Democrats → get → Oregon
Senate: Shifts in North and South Carolina make it eight battlegrounds
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it → make → Carolina
Each party has 47 seats to their name, leaving six toss-up races to determine control.
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party → have → control
Those are Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, which all look close in the flurry of surveys released by pollsters last week.
asserted
which → look → pollsters
On the polling alone, these look more like toss-up states: surveys released last week have the Democrat ahead by only five points in New Hampshire, and the Kansas race dead even.
asserted
race → look → Hampshire
It’s the partisan makeup of these states that keeps them at "lean."
asserted
that → ’ → lean
Fox News confirmed on Friday that the Senate Leadership Fund, a powerful Super PAC aligned with Republican leadership, was pulling resources from the state.
asserted
Fund → confirm → state
Earlier, Sen. Tim Scott left it off a list of states where Republicans were focusing spending.
asserted
Republicans → leave → spending
GOP nominee Michael Whatley is running as strong a race as he can there, and the margin will probably be tighter than polls currently have it.
asserted
polls → run → it
But the Democrat, Roy Cooper, is also a strong candidate, and he has had double-digit leads in multiple surveys.
asserted
he → have → surveys
North Carolina moves from Lean D to Likely D.
Nearby South Carolina is getting more competitive.
asserted
Carolina → move → D.
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
