Eight weeks from today, millions of Americans will choose their next congressperson.
asserted
millions → choose → congressperson
Poll after poll tells us that the state of the economy will shape their choice: it’s the top issue for voters by a wide margin and most Americans are in a sour mood about it.
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Americans → tell → it
That’s not the end of the story.
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That → ’ → story
We’ve learned from previous elections that voters consider a wide range of issues when they vote.
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they → learn → issues
The "economy" has different meanings to voters.
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economy → have → voters
Optimism doesn’t win over voters on pocketbook issues.
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Optimism → win → issues
And this year, while voters aren’t happy with President Donald Trump’s economy, that hasn't yet made them enthusiastic about the Democratic alternative.
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them → make → alternative
These are the four rules to think about as we inch closer to the midterms.
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we → think → midterms
Meantime, Democrats inch closer to victory as the Power Rankings takes a fresh look at congressional races in Missouri and Ohio.
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Rankings → inch → Missouri
The economy is central to elections, but watch for related issues
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economy → watch → issues
The importance of the economy to elections has been a golden rule since the early '90s, when Democratic strategist James Carville famously cited "the economy, stupid" as the most important focus for a campaign.
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Carville → cite → campaign
Did you know it was only one of three orders he gave to candidates that cycle?
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he → know → candidates
The economy has been a top-three issue throughout the Trump era, including the last two midterm elections, where it was the most important issue for 47% of voters (2022) and 18% of voters (2018).
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it → include → voters
If that 2018 figure feels low, it’s because healthcare (26%) and immigration (23%) finished ahead.
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healthcare → feel → ?
That year, Republicans lost 42 seats.
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Republicans → lose → seats
No wonder another of Carville’s three rules for candidates was "don’t forget health care."
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another → forget → care
The state of the economy bleeds into other major concerns, including healthcare.
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state → bleed → healthcare
But even a strong economy wasn’t enough to get the GOP out of that election unscathed.
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economy → get → election
And healthcare looms as another important issue this year: it’s ranked close behind the economy in most surveys this year.
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it → loom → surveys
The economy means different things to voters
When pollsters ask about voters’ views on the economy, they usually ask how important "the economy" or "the state of the economy" is, or whether they’re satisfied with Trump’s performance on that issue.
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they → mean → issue
In some important ways, Trump has a strong economic record.
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Trump → have → record
Just last week, the U.S. added 162,000 jobs, about triple what economists had expected.
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economists → add → what
The stock market also continues to grow, even as Iran and tariffs drive volatility.
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Iran → continue → volatility
These have helped keep Trump’s overall economic approval rating in the low-to-mid 30s in multiple polls this summer.
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These → help → polls
When pollsters ask only about Americans’ personal economic situation, things look tougher.
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things → ask → situation
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week, 32% of voters said they approved of Trump on the economy.
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they → release → economy
But only a quarter approved of his performance on cost of living and 24% approved of him on inflation and prices.
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% → approve → inflation
The costs of gas, food and other basic goods are the major factors driving this discrepancy.
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costs → drive → discrepancy
If Democrats deliver a strong result in November, it will come down to a presidential approval rating in the mid-20s on these issues.
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it → deliver → issues
Voters see through economic optimism
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Voters → see → optimism
In 2022, President Joe Biden faced similar headwinds: the economy was rebounding, especially if you looked at unemployment, but inflation hovered around the 8% mark all year.
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inflation → face → mark
Gas prices came in around $3.75.
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prices → come → 3.75
The Biden administration kept selling the positives.
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administration → keep → positives
Then the president argued that "zero percent inflation" from one month to another was a win, despite the high annualized rate.
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inflation → argue → rate
Senior officials took victory laps on the unemployment rate.
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officials → take → rate
Voters rejected this messaging at the ballot box, delivering the House to the GOP after a net loss of nine Democratic seats and handing Biden a net approval rating of -23 points on the economy.
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Voters → reject → economy
Trump’s net approval on the economy currently sits at -33 points.
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approval → sit → points
The Trump administration is running a familiar playbook.
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administration → run → playbook
Vice President JD Vance said last week that gas prices could be worse if not for the Trump administration.
uncertain
prices → say → administration
As Fox’s Gillian Turner noted on "Special Report," there are similarities between a comment like that and the statements Biden officials made four years earlier.
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officials → note → that
…and 39 more, not listed.
