What happens in the secretive inner councils in Tehran, the mountains of south-west Yemen, the steppe of the Donbas, the still bloody wasteland that is Gaza and even the elegant boulevards of Paris and Milan have a common thread.
asserted
that → happen → thread
One cannot understand one set of conflicts without weaving them into another, and it is this very interdependence that is making each problem so contagious, layered and difficult to resolve, leaving the world to live as if trapped inside a pressure cooker on the brink of an explosion.
asserted
problem → understand → explosion
Each night it seems the world has reached a collective rock bottom, only to wake in the morning to the sound of knocking from below.
asserted
world → seem → knocking
In this great age of noncooperation and lawlessness, the need for one crisis to be resolved before another can be addressed leads to a collective paralysis, especially in the total absence of clear leadership by the world’s leading power.
asserted
another → resolve → power
Speaking this week, the Indian external affairs minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, said: “The indivisibility of our existence permeates every aspect of human activity and it has deepened as globalisation has advanced.
asserted
globalisation → speak → activity
The fact now is that war anywhere threatens peace everywhere.”
asserted
war → threaten → peace
Tom Barrack, Donald Trump’s envoy to Turkey and wider counsellor to the president on the Middle East, in remarks in Doha last week highlighted these threads, admitting the war on Iran launched by his president and Israel in late February had brought unexpected consequences, turning “camp fires into forest fires”.
asserted
war → highlight → fires
He likened the Middle East to a Rubik’s Cube, whereby a single move can inadvertently affect the whole picture.
asserted
move → liken → picture
“When you adjust one thing in the region what we have seen is everything then changes.
asserted
everything → adjust → what
Those unintended consequences, and the sequential pace of what is happening, is unexpected,” said Barrack.
asserted
Barrack → happen → ?
He then admitted: “We started trying to do something with our allies in Iran that spread through Hamas, Hezbollah, to six Iranian militias, the Houthis and is now going to north Africa.
asserted
that → admit → Africa
So where does it stop?
asserted
it → stop → ?
How much does this US intervention help or hurt?”
asserted
intervention → help → ?
Without breaking from Trump, he answered his own question pretty unambiguously.
asserted
he → break → question
“We have had 23 regime changes take place across the greater Middle East and Levant instituted one way or another by some American hand or influence, and none of them have worked.
asserted
none → have → them
“Every time we try to intervene and change the person or the regime, it seems to have been a mistake,” Barrack said, pointing to Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, but discreetly omitting Iran.
asserted
Barrack → try → Iran
So it is easy to blame what has gone wrong on excessive interventionism and failed multilateralism.
asserted
what → blame → interventionism
In his new book, the American international relations expert Charles Kupchan explains: “The world is experiencing deep tectonic transformations.
asserted
world → explain → transformations
Power is rapidly diffusing across the international system, decentering global politics and reawakening great power competition.
asserted
Power → diffuse → competition
“At the same time the advance of the digital era is eroding the social contract of the industrial era producing massive socioeconomic disruption that is affecting political life inside nations as well as relations among them.”
Trump, he argues, is a symptom of a trend that is systemic and widespread.
asserted
that → erode → trend
But it is also hard not to believe that in this interconnected world the disruptive damage that a capricious, vain and amoral US president can inflict has grown tenfold, and that is what we are experiencing.
asserted
we → believe → what
World disorder meets personality disorder.
asserted
disorder → meet → disorder
The Iran war, for instance, as Barrack implied, remains Trump’s most consequential and most mysterious mistake, and its repercussions reverberate across the world.
asserted
repercussions → imply → world
Any US president would have had to address the Iran issue, itself a product of system failure, the inability of the multilateral system to incorporate and change Iran.
asserted
president → have → Iran
But the way in which the Iran issue was addressed is down to Trump, and his psyche.
asserted
issue → address → Trump
The Democratic candidate for senate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, put it simply: “Everybody could have told you this is a dumb idea.
uncertain
this → put → you
There was really only one person in the whole world who had a 40-year project to get us to fight this war.
asserted
us → be → war
He’s a prime minister of another government [Netanyahu].
asserted
He → ’ → government
And he finally found the dumbass who was willing to do it.”
asserted
who → find → it
The foreign minister of Oman, and mediator in the February Iran-US talks, speaking in Cambridge this week reminded his audience an agreement on the core issue – Iran’s nuclear programme – had been within reach before the bombing started.
asserted
bombing → speak → reach
On every test the war has been a catastrophic failure, whose consequence keeps spreading beyond its initial boundaries, pushing worldwide inflation to 4%.
asserted
consequence → keep → %
The strait of Hormuz, a waterway open to commercial traffic for centuries, has become an Iranian bargaining chip.
asserted
strait → become → centuries
Less than a fortnight before the midterms, the price of Brent oil per barrel reached $117 – 50% higher than prewar levels.
asserted
price → reach → levels
The GDP of Saudi Arabia, the Middle East’s economic powerhouse, is forecast by the IMF to contract 3.3%, a five percentage-point downgrade from the 1.7% growth forecast issued only in July.
asserted
GDP → forecast → July
As the House of Saud analysis explains: “The country’s Vision 2030 plan was constructed as a hedge against oil-price volatility.
asserted
plan → explain → volatility
It assumed open sea lanes, functioning airports, and a US security umbrella that would deter kinetic threats to the kingdom’s export infrastructure.
asserted
that → assume → infrastructure
Every one of those assumptions has failed since February.”
asserted
one → fail → February
On 30 September, Saudi Arabia’s government felt forced to raise its 2026 budget deficit projection to $65.3bn, 48% above the original forecast.
asserted
government → force → forecast
Nor did the conflict lead to a more stable Iran.
asserted
conflict → lead → Iran
The Iranian with most strategic nous, Ali Larijani, was blown up on the first day of the war.
asserted
Iranian → blow → war
…and 57 more, not listed.
The Aporia
