No clear winner has emerged from Israel’s election, raising speculation over which party could form the next government.
uncertain
party → emerge → government
Early on Friday, the Central Elections Committee (CEC) published the final results of the October 27 vote, which had a high voter turnout of 77.9 percent.
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which → publish → percent
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Neither Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition grouping led by Gadi Eisenkot has secured the majority necessary to form a government.
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bloc → count → government
Both leaders have also ruled out working with the two main electoral lists representing Palestinian citizens of Israel – the United Arab List (Ra’am) and the Joint List.
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leaders → rule → Israel
So how can Israel break its political deadlock?
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Israel → break → deadlock
Here’s what we know:
Have all votes been counted?
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votes → ’ → what
On Thursday, at least 500,000 “double envelope” votes which came in from soldiers and diplomats were counted.
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which → come → soldiers
These voters use two envelopes: the first contains their ballot without any identifying information, while the second bears their personal details.
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second → use → details
The anonymous envelope is placed inside the second envelope, allowing officials to check that voters have not cast ballots elsewhere, without compromising the secrecy of their choice.
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voters → place → choice
Netanyahu’s bloc secured 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot won 48 seats.
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bloc → secure → seats
The United Arab List, or Ra’am, and the Joint List secured a combined 19 seats.
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List → secure → seats
To form a government, a political party must hold at least 61 seats.
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party → form → seats
No single party has ever won that majority and alliances have led to governing coalitions, with a prime minister at the helm.
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alliances → win → helm
What happens next?
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What → happen → ?
Political consultations to form a coalition are reported to be under way.
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consultations → form → way
If the process fails, Israeli President Isaac Herzog could choose which candidate has the best chance to form a government.
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candidate → fail → government
That candidate is then given about 28 days to do so – a period that could be extended.
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that → give → days
If the candidate fails, the president can then choose another.
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president → fail → another
If that candidate is unable to form a government, then a 21-day window opens in which 61 members of the Knesset can submit a request to Herzog to assign the task to a Knesset member.
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members → form → member
Yes, because if all the processes listed above fail, Israelis will have to return to the polls.
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Israelis → list → polls
Are Arab parties being considered for coalitions?
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parties → consider → coalitions
Many Israeli leaders have rejected the idea of partnering with Arab-led parties.
Netanyahu has ruled out working alongside them and demonised them following their strong showing.
“It is forbidden to form a government with them,” Netanyahu posted on X on Friday.
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Netanyahu → partner → Friday
Netanyahu’s Likud party has accused the Arab-led parties of “stealing” the election, after his own coalition lost its majority.
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coalition → accuse → majority
According to a Times of Israel report this week, Eisenkot has said he would only consider partnering with any party that recognises Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, endorses the values of the Declaration of Independence and commits to all Israelis performing national service.
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Israelis → accord → service
He has not said whether the Arab-led parties would meet those criteria.
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parties → say → criteria
On Thursday, another opposition figure, Avigdor Lieberman, the hard-right leader of Yisrael Beytenu, also ruled out certain coalitions.
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figure → rule → coalitions
“Neither Bibi nor Tibi”, he said, using Netanyahu’s nickname and invoking Ahmad Tibi, leader of the Ta’al party – part of the Joint List.
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he → say → List
Where do the Arab parties stand?
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parties → stand → ?
The Arab parties have shown interest in partnering with anti-Netanyahu factions.
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parties → show → factions
Yousef Jabareen from the Joint List said that his party was ready for the “ousting of the Netanyahu government”, which he called one of “bloodshed”.
“Against a politics of supremacy, racism, and exclusion, we offer a completely different alternative.
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we → say → alternative
The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership,” he wrote on X.
Political analyst Ahmed Najar said the parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel have shown considerably more pragmatism than Eisenkot and most of his allies.
“Ra’am has indicated that it is open to participating in an Eisenkot-led government, while the Joint List has left open the possibility of supporting a minority government from outside the coalition, provided that such support delivers meaningful commitments on equality, violent crime in Palestinian communities, home demolitions and a political pathway for the wider Palestinian question,” he said.
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he → come → question
Can Arab parties break the political deadlock?
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parties → break → deadlock
It is still too soon to say, according to analysts.
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It → say → analysts
“The numbers don’t add up for any side,” Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University and specialist in Israeli voting behaviour and election strategies, told Al Jazeera.
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Zur → add → Jazeera
“However, there are rumours that Eisenkot will ask for the support of the Arab parties in a government investiture vote in return for financial investment in their communities.
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Eisenkot → be → communities
Yet, this is unlikely on both sides, and even if both sides go forward with this idea, it might fall due to Lieberman objecting to the idea.”
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Lieberman → go → idea
Zur said that if the four parties in Eisenkot’s “change bloc” were closer to a majority, outside support would have been more likely because Ra’am is perceived as a more “moderate” Arab party.
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Ra’am → say → party
“Then a European-style confidence-and-supply agreement would be more probable,” he added.
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he → add → ?
Nimrod Flaschenberg, a Berlin-based political analyst, told Al Jazeera that it is still unclear whether Eisenkot is willing to rely on Ra‘am and the Joint List.
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Eisenkot → base → Ra‘am
“If Eisenkot will be willing to go for such cooperation, then there are three options: The first is the Israeli-Arab parties could be part of the government.
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parties → go → government
…and 24 more, not listed.
The Aporia
