The Aporia · One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters

One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters

Read the original at The Sydney Morning Herald ↗

Cite

APA MLA Chicago

View, T. H. (2026, October 27). One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/one-nation-comes-for-nsw-and-labor-gets-the-jitters-20261027-p618v1.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Quick Summary

One Nation's rising popularity is reshaping the political landscape ahead of the March NSW election, posing a significant threat to Labor's government led by Premier Chris Minns. Internal polling indicates Labor could lose more than a dozen seats to One Nation in areas like the Hunter, South Coast, Central Coast, and southwest regions. Premier Minns has responded with substantial infrastructure investments, pledging $6.8 billion for train improvements on the South Coast line. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party remains cautious about forming alliances with One Nation while attempting to address issues that appeal to conservative voters.

Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-27, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

The emergence of One Nation as a significant political force in New South Wales (NSW) is reshaping the landscape ahead of next March's state election, with Labor facing a serious threat to its governance. Internal polling shows that One Nation could pose enough of a challenge for Labor to lose more than a dozen seats and possibly be ousted after just one term. Premier Chris Minns has acknowledged this risk, focusing on One Nation leader Mike Newman as the primary challenger rather than the Liberal Party's Kellie Sloane. Vulnerable seats are located in regions like the Hunter, South Coast, Central Coast, and south-west of NSW. The shift is significant because it marks a new political reality where former Liberal figures such as Nathaniel Smith, Hollie Hughes, Katherine Deves, and Lou Amato have joined One Nation, intensifying its influence and unpredictability in the upcoming election.

Written for “One Nation In New South Wales” on 2026-10-28, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Why this leaning score

The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.

The clear and present emergence of One Nation makes next March’s NSW election capriciously unpredictable.

right associates unpredictability with the rise of a right-wing party
It is also going to be unlike anything we’ve seen before.

right suggests novelty and disruption due to One Nation's influence
Seats in the Hunter, South Coast, Central Coast and south-west are considered particularly vulnerable.

right identifies specific areas where Labor is threatened by One Nation
The fact that so many members of the political class in NSW are jumping ship or flirting with One Nation suggest the party will be a serious contender.

right frames support for One Nation as significant and growing

Reading Leans right (beta estimate) Confidence high

Leaning: leans right for article 109539 (high confidence, 4 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-27

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 9% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Controversial One Nation cartoon showing Australian politicians being deliberately mowed down by a car resurfaces after horrific attack on MP Helen Haines - sparking fiery debate different event · 95%

Daily Mail

⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 15% hedged 5 of 34 📰 publisher trust 68

“Article A discusses a controversial cartoon resurfacing after an attack on Helen Haines, while Article B talks about One Nation's impact on NSW politics and potential election outcomes.”

Forum offers peek behind political curtain ahead of election different event · 90%

ABC News (AU)

⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 2 of 24 📰 publisher trust 68

“The articles describe different political events and contexts in Victoria and NSW, with no overlap in time or place.”

How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

Uncertain

2 of 23 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

Leaning

Leans right

of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate

Publisher signals

61/100

The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.

Outlets on this story

Politics

Same framing elsewhere

articles that frame the event the way this one does

Analyzed 2026-10-27 · how these are computed

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Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 5220 article(s) · 12 correction(s) detected

Running correction rate · 12 correction(s)

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Who wrote this

The Herald's View

26 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

🔮 Labor MPs have been told the party could lose more than a dozen seats and be bundled out after just one term of government.

2026-10-27 · assertive framing · One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters

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2026-10-25 · assertive framing · Short-term rentals and home stay wear out their welcome

🔮 Last week, the Herald reported on a confidential ministerial briefing note that warned $600 million a year would be needed to fix the state’s shortfall of frontline public mental health staff.

2026-10-23 · assertive framing · Mental health is often forgotten until violence shatters the peace

🔮 The announcement that the final section of Sydney’s $30 billion M1 metro rail line will open to passengers on Friday next week is a major transformative moment in the life of our city.

2026-10-22 · assertive framing · Finally, the Metro on platform one will depart Bankstown

🔮 RSL NSW said Australia could not afford to permanently surrender such an important piece of military heritage – particularly at a time of increasing global uncertainty.

2026-10-21 · assertive framing · Victoria Barracks must stay in public hands, with greater public access

🔮 Instead, the opening address given on Monday will be the only public element of the Law Enforcement Conduct Commission’s inquiry before it embarks on five weeks of private hearings with junior police on the frontline as the February 9 protest descended into chaos.

2026-10-19 · assertive framing · The police watchdog should not do its work behind closed doors

🔮 Even though its axiomatic that midterm elections are lost by the presidential incumbent and his party, Trump’s role will be seen as central if the Democrats seize control of the House of Representatives on November 3.

2026-10-18 · assertive framing · Trump overload killing Republican midterm chances of victory

🔮 On Tuesday more than 74,000 students sat the first exam, English paper one, and the test will continue over the next four weeks.

2026-10-14 · assertive framing · The HSC remains a gold standard but the year 12 experience needs a reboot

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2026-10-13 · assertive framing · Tough choices needed to keep Australian economy on track for growth

🔮 Five years after the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) recommended the overhaul of rules governing political lobbyists, the Minns government has announced a series of reforms that will make the NSW Electoral Commission regulate the influence pedlars and force third-party lobbyists to disclose links to local councils.

2026-10-12 · assertive framing · Crackdown on political lobbyists does not go far enough

Also by The Herald's View

Short-term rentals and home stay wear out their welcome

2026-10-25 · The Sydney Morning Herald

Mental health is often forgotten until violence shatters the peace

2026-10-23 · The Sydney Morning Herald

Finally, the Metro on platform one will depart Bankstown

2026-10-22 · The Sydney Morning Herald

Victoria Barracks must stay in public hands, with greater public access

2026-10-21 · The Sydney Morning Herald

Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 26 articles by The Herald's View →

Topics

Labor Liberal Minns NSW One Nation

Subjects

One Nation ORG · 16× NSW GPE · 7× Labor NORP · 4× Liberal NORP · 3× Liberals NORP · 2× Minns PERSON · 2× One Nation’s ORG · 2× Pauline Hanson’s PERSON · 1× South Australian NORP · 1× the National Party’s ORG · 1×

Narrative

Shadow police minister Anthony Roberts held the muddleheaded line on Tuesday, telling the ABC he was not worried about One Nation despite the conga line of Liberals including former state MP Nathaniel Smith, former Senator Hollie Hughes, former Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and former NSW upper house MP Lou Amato vying to be selected to stand for One Nation.

framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-27

🔮 Labor MPs have been told the party could lose more than a dozen seats and be bundled out after just one term of government.

2026-10-27 · The Sydney Morning Herald

One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters · assertive framing

Claims (23 extracted, 2 hedged)

The clear and present emergence of One Nation makes next March’s NSW election capriciously unpredictable. asserted

election → make → Nation

It is also going to be unlike anything we’ve seen before. asserted

we → go → anything

Since Pauline Hanson’s popularity surged in opinion polls after the South Australian state election, One Nation had been the National Party’s big problem. asserted

Nation → surge → election

Now it’s coming for Labor’s NSW heartland. asserted

it → come → heartland

Labor internal polling shows One Nation is a genuine threat to the Minns government as officials warn of the potential for a One Nation/Liberal victory. asserted

officials → show → victory

Labor MPs have been told the party could lose more than a dozen seats and be bundled out after just one term of government. uncertain

party → tell → government

Seats in the Hunter, South Coast, Central Coast and south-west are considered particularly vulnerable. asserted

Seats → consider → Hunter

MPs in regional seats expect One Nation to be their most significant challenger on polling day rather than Liberal or Nationals candidates Premier Chris Minns on Tuesday shrugged off the threat of Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane, instead declaring his fight for the top job was with One Nation, and suggested NSW One Nation leader Mike Newman would either be opposition leader or premier. uncertain

Newman → expect → Nation

“One Nation are surging,” he told 2GB. asserted

he → surge → GB

“And they’re getting a big, big chunk of the vote.” asserted

they → get → vote

It’s little wonder, then, that Minns pledged $6.8 billion toward removing bottlenecks on the passenger train line to the South Coast and electrifying it all the way to Bomaderry over the next decade as part of a re-election undertaking. asserted

Minns → ’ → undertaking

Meanwhile, the Liberals continue to tip-toe around the possibility of sharing power. asserted

Liberals → continue → power

Sloane has formally ruled out entering into a coalition or formal deal with One Nation but adopted a nuanced and sometimes confused strategy of signalling shifts on contentious issues such as gun control to blunt One Nation’s appeal to conservative and regional voters. asserted

Sloane → rule → voters

line → hold → Nation

The November 28 Victorian state election undoubtedly will be a bellwether for One Nation’s electoral clout and chances of living up to the hype of entering a coalition. asserted

election → live → coalition

Polls suggest the Victorian Coalition is headed to victory without One Nation. asserted

Coalition → suggest → Nation

The Liberal leader Jess Wilson is following the playbook and ignoring One Nation: she won’t countenance One Nation leader Warren Pickering sharing the platform in a leaders debate with Labor Premier Ben Carroll. asserted

Pickering → follow → Carroll

In NSW, One Nation is gaining strength and momentum. asserted

Nation → gain → strength

The fact that so many members of the political class in NSW are jumping ship or flirting with One Nation suggest the party will be a serious contender. asserted

party → jump → Nation

This has huge ramifications for our state. asserted

This → have → state

The Herald has long considered One Nation a damaging force. asserted

Nation → consider → ?

For nearly 30 years, it has offered simple and popular solutions to complex problems. asserted

it → offer → problems

That is no way to run NSW. asserted

That → run → NSW