Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies are on track to win the most seats in Israel’s parliament, despite weeks of polling predicting he would not survive Tuesday’s election.
asserted
he → win → election
The central election committee was still tallying votes on Wednesday, and it will likely take until Thursday before definitive results of the election are known.
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results → tally → election
Current forecasts suggest Netanyahu and his allies will win 54 seats, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority in the Knesset, but also leaving his main challenger Gadi Eisenkot without a clear path to government.
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Netanyahu → suggest → government
Israel’s longest serving prime minister, 77, has established himself as a political survivor with a cumulative 19 years in office, and could stay on as caretaker if negotiations fail to yield a new government.
uncertain
negotiations → serve → government
But beyond politics he has survived multiple assassination attempts and multiple corruption scandals.
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he → survive → attempts
Below, The Independent looks back on Netanyahu’s unmatched staying power at the top of Israeli politics.
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Independent → look → politics
Thirty years have passed since Bibi was first elected prime minister in 1996.
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Bibi → pass → 1996
The single most dominant figure in Israeli politics, he has spent 19 years in the role, including 12 consecutively between 2009 and 2021.
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he → spend → 2009
Netanyahu’s first election set the tone as he overcame opponent Shimon Peres by just 29,457 votes.
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he → set → votes
Likud took charge of the 14th Knesset with just 50.4 per cent of the vote, against Labor’s 49.6.
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Likud → take → 49.6
He resigned as party leader three years later after suffering a landslide defeat to Labor challenger Ehud Barak.
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He → resign → Barak
Netanyahu would spend a decade in the wilderness before storming to power again on the heels of the 2009 war with militants in Gaza.
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Netanyahu → spend → Gaza
The Likud party did not win the most seats this year, as foreign minister Tzipi Livni’s centrist Kadima party narrowly pulled in front.
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party → win → front
But it was Bibi who managed to form a coalition government with the remaining parties.
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who → manage → parties
Voters struggled through the second term with the cost of living and mounting income equality, and Netanyahu was polling behind a Labor-Livni hybrid in the run up to the 2013 election.
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Netanyahu → struggle → election
A popular new centrist party, Yesh Atid, had also emerged around former journalist Yair Lapid, swallowing up a swathe of Bibi’s base.
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party → emerge → base
And yet, a Likud-Yisrael-Beiteinu alliance formed and Netanyahu stayed on.
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Netanyahu → form → ?
Livni and current president Isaac Herzog made a challenge with the centre-left Zionist Union alliance in 2015, but lost out with just 24 seats to Likud’s 30.
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Livni → make → 30
April 2019 began a turbulent year as Likud failed to form a government after tying with centrist challenger Benny Gantz.
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Likud → begin → Gantz
A second inconclusive election followed in September, with Gantz pulling ahead 33-32.
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Gantz → follow → September
But again, neither side was able to form a government.
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side → form → government
A third election would follow in March 2020, by which time Netanyahu had become embroiled in a corruption row, charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust.
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Netanyahu → follow → trust
Netanyahu has been on trial for six years over three separate criminal cases, all of which he denies.
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he → deny → which
The cases have been repeatedly delayed, particularly since the October 7 terror attacks in 2023.
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cases → delay → 2023
He was first indicted in 2019 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.
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He → indict → trust
The prime minister was accused of accepting tens of thousands of dollars’ worth of cigars and champagne from a Hollywood producer in exchange for assistance with personal and business interests.
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minister → accuse → interests
He was also accused of promoting advantageous regulations for media moguls in exchange for favourable coverage of himself and his family.
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He → accuse → himself
He consistently denied the charges and cast the case as a partisan witch hunt.
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He → deny → hunt
The third case accuses Netanyahu of granting regulatory favours worth around $500 million to Bezeq Telecom Israel.
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case → accuse → Israel
Bribery charges alone carry a prison sentence of up to 10 years and a fine.
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charges → carry → years
Under Israeli law, a prime minister is under no obligation to stand down unless convicted.
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minister → stand → obligation
If he or she appeals their conviction, they can keep their office throughout the appeals process.
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they → appeal → process
Netanyahu’s cross examination was completed in June this year after 98 hearings.
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examination → complete → hearings
Earlier this month the court moved to sit five days a week in a bid to accelerate the case before the presiding judge retires.
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judge → move → case
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has requested a pardon from president Isaac Herzog, with a decision still pending.
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decision → request → Herzog
Out of office - and back just 18 months later
The March 2020 election became a fight for survival as Bibi pleaded for immunity from prosecution while campaigning as the world began to lockdown from the Coronavirus.
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world → become → Coronavirus
He and Gantz signed an emergency unity government deal that April, rotating the leadership and resolving calls to form a coalition and get to work tackling the pandemic.
Netanyahu was finally forced out of office after 12 years in 2021 by a broad coalition of ideologically disparate partners, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett.
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Netanyahu → sign → partners
The unique coalition, which for the first time included an Arab party (Ra’am), was beginning to destabilise by spring 2022.
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which → include → spring
Bennett called for early elections and the stage was set for Likud to come out on top with a strong majority, despite the corruption scandal.
The country was soon thrown back into crisis in 2023 as Netanyahu moved to overhaul the judiciary.
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Netanyahu → call → judiciary
Tens of thousands of people turned out for weekly protests in towns and cities across the country, calling for all the planned reforms to be scrapped and for Netanyahu to resign.
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Netanyahu → turn → country
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
