After three years with their country at war on multiple fronts, Israelis will go to the polls Tuesday in a hotly contested election that will shape their next government.
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that → go → government
Polls show it is an incredibly tight race, and as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fights to hold onto his job, there's no guarantee of a quick, definitive outcome for him or his political opponents.
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Netanyahu → show → him
Polls vary widely regarding the expected outcome.
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Polls → vary → outcome
Right-leaning pollsters give an advantage to the right-wing and religious bloc led by Netanyahu, while left-leaning pollsters show an advantage for the so-called change bloc opposing the incumbent.
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pollsters → lean → incumbent
Most polls show neither side is likely to win a decisive majority of the 120 seats in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, which would enable it to unilaterally form a new government.
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which → show → government
The tight margins mean the voting may end in a stalemate, which could lead to protracted negotiations across ideological lines, the formation of a minority government, or even an election do-over.
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which → mean → government
"It looks like an indecisive outcome is the most likely outcome," said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute.
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Plesner → look → Institute
This will be the first election since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas, which authorities have acknowledged as Netanyahu advocating for a third.
since the country's founding in 1948.
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Netanyahu → acknowledge → 1948
Israelis will go to the polls Tuesday with their country still — fighting in the subsequent multi-front war in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and after two direct rounds of conflict with Iran andAgainst that backdrop
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country → go → backdrop
, there are a few key issues that could determine the election outcome, even if it does take days or weeks to shake out.
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it → be → days
But first, here's a look at the two main factions vying for the votes.
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look → vie → votes
The Netanyahu camp
Netanyahu, Israel's longest serving prime minister and leader of the Likud party, is seeking to form another coalition similar to his current government, which relies on partnerships with ultranationalist and Jewish religious parties.
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which → serve → parties
He has two main pitches to voters: First, that only he can form a government without the support of Israel's Arab parties, which he argues would be a danger to the country if they gain enough seats to influence Israel's engagement in its myriad conflicts.
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they → have → conflicts
Netanyahu's second argument to voters is that Israel's campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and especially Iran, are ongoing, and he needs more time to finish what his government started.
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government → need → what
President Trump offered a full-throated
last week.
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Trump → offer → throated
He reiterated his administration's firm support for the war the two men launched jointly against Iran almost eight months ago, and warned that he could be disinclined to continue with it if Netanyahu doesn't hold onto power.
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Netanyahu → reiterate → power
"If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so," Mr. Trump said.
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Trump → have → work
Since that endorsement, Netanyahu has argued that only he can work with Mr. Trump to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, which many Israelis see as an existential threat.
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Israelis → argue → threat
Netanyahu's campaign slogan, which rhymes in Hebrew, is: "Either right wing or Palestine, either right wing or a nuclear bomb."
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which → rhyme → Hebrew
Over the weekend, Netanyahu posted an AI-generated photo of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv on social media, with a caption reiterating his insistence that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel.
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Iran → post → Israel
Netanyahu's supporters see him as a top-tier global leader.
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supporters → see → leader
"Bibi can handle the whole world," restaurant owner Benny Abraham told CBS News, using Netanyahu's nickname.
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Abraham → handle → nickname
He has a strong voice.
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He → have → voice
The world loves him.
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world → love → him
"
"He's the king of Israel," Abraham added.
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Abraham → add → Israel
The (anyone but Netanyahu) "change bloc"
Running against Netanyahu is a diverse group of Arab, right, left and center parties that have one clear common denominator: They all want Netanyahu out of power
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They → run → power
The front-runner to lead the "change bloc," should its various parties collectively win enough seats to build a coalition, is former Israeli military chief Gadi Eizenkot, who leads the centrist Yashar party.
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who → lead → party
Eizenkot lost his son and two nephews while they were serving in the military in Gaza.
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they → lose → Gaza
He was part of the Israeli war cabinet for much of the first year of the Gaza war, working alongside Netanyahu.
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He → work → Netanyahu
About half of his party's candidates in Tuesday's election are women, in stark contrast to the male-dominated Netanyahu coalition.
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half → dominate → coalition
Eizenkot is framing himself as a humble veteran who wants to reunite Israel after years of division that he blames on Netanyahu.
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he → frame → Netanyahu
Eisenkot responded Monday to Netanyahu's rhetoric about Iran posing a nuclear threat by accusing him of "relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies, and threats — including images of nuclear bombs in the heart of Tel Aviv.
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Iran → respond → Aviv
"
"This time, it won't work for him," he said.
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he → work → him
Eisenkot's key campaign promises include launching a state inquiry into the intelligence and security failure to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas — something Netanyahu has thus far blocked.
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Netanyahu → include → Hamas
Uzi Aharoni, 73, an engineer from Tel Aviv, told CBS News he saw Eizenkot as the only real alternative to Netanyahu.
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he → tell → Netanyahu
"Eizenkott is not left, he's not right.
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he → leave → ?
He's the kind of leader who will take care of us, the people of Israel, and not himself or his corrupt family," Aharoni said.
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Aharoni → take → Israel
There are a few factors analysts believe could hand a victory to either side.
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analysts → be → side
One thing polls can't predict well in Israel is voter turnout.
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polls → predict → Israel
Past elections have shown voters backing Netanyahu's Likud party, and Arab-Israeli voters, vary the greatest in their enthusiasm to come out on election days, so there could be room for turn-out surprises that significantly change the electoral math in favor of either side.
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that → show → side
…and 17 more, not listed.
The Aporia
