How many “Dan Sullivans” does one election need?
asserted
election → need → Sullivans
One would seem plenty, but Alaska is going to the polls with two “Dan Sullivans” on the ballot — one the sitting Republican US senator in a nip-and-tuck battle to save his seat, and the other a random guy whose only discernible purpose in the race is to divert precious votes from the real Dan Sullivan.
asserted
purpose → seem → Sullivan
The Justice Department has filed a lawsuit seeking a preemptive order blocking certification of the election should the presence of the faux Sullivan affect the outcome.
asserted
presence → file → outcome
Democrats and the commentariat have condemned this as an effort to overturn the election before it happens, but the suit is going nowhere (no judge is likely to issue such an order, and the complaint doesn’t name a substantive statutory provision that’s been violated).
asserted
that → condemn → provision
This doesn’t change the fact, though, that the second Sullivan is a clear and present danger to voter intent in a crucial US Senate race — and that the Alaska electoral system is a travesty.
asserted
system → change → race
Several years ago, the state adopted fashionable changes to how it votes, ditching the commonsensical and tried-and-true in favor of the novel and complex.
asserted
it → adopt → novel
It moved to a so-called jungle primary where the four highest vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party.
asserted
getters → move → party
And it instituted a ranked-choice system in the general: If no candidate finishes with a majority of the vote, the support for the candidate (or candidates) with the fewest votes is redistributed until someone gets over the top.
asserted
someone → institute → top
This new system is, in part, an object lesson in the folly of changing electoral rules to benefit one candidate.
asserted
system → change → candidate
The architects of the changes, which narrowly passed by referendum in 2020, hoped to help independent-minded Republican Lisa Murkowski.
She was an iffy proposition in Republican primaries but could prevail with crossover votes in the general, making the new primary system ideal for her.
uncertain
system → pass → her
She is truly ensconced now, so mission accomplished.
asserted
She → ensconce → ?
But the jungle primary let the fake Sullivan qualify for the general with just 2.5% of the vote.
asserted
Sullivan → let → vote
If there had been a Republican primary, Dan Sullivan the senator would have trounced Dan Sullivan the poseur.
asserted
Sullivan → trounce → Sullivan
Yes, the other Sullivan could have qualified for the general by running as an independent, but that would have required gathering signatures — in other words, some effort besides getting leftover votes meant for the real Sullivan.
uncertain
that → qualify → Sullivan
Such contests take from parties the responsibility for choosing their candidates, and they create the possibility of perverse outcomes.
asserted
they → take → outcomes
In California earlier this year, it seemed that the jungle primary might— thanks to a splintered Democratic field — advance two Republican candidates and no Democrat in the heavily blue state’s gubernatorial race.
uncertain
primary → seem → race
In Alaska, it might mitigate the effect of the second Sullivan if confused voters make both the Sullivans their top choices.
uncertain
Sullivans → mitigate → Sullivan
But if a voter makes the wrong Sullivan his top choice and selects the Democrat, Mary Peltola, in second place, the erroneous Sullivan vote will be reallocated to the Democrat.
asserted
vote → make → Democrat
Ranked-choice voting is convoluted, and it leads to delays in counting and perhaps lead changes during the count that seem arbitrary.
asserted
that → rank → count
There’s nothing to recommend it over traditional first-past-the-post voting that lends itself to clear, comprehensible results, and — in competent states — rapid vote counts.
asserted
that → ’ → states
As for the second Sullivan, he says that no one put him up to running, even though everything about his candidacy is consistent with a dirty trick.
asserted
everything → say → trick
He’s a Democratic voter who sought to run as a Republican.
asserted
who → ’ → Republican
Initially, according to Alaska’s director of elections, he wanted to be on the ballot as “Dan S. Sullivan” — the senator’s middle initial, not his own.
And his campaign website has the same look as Sen. Sullivan’s.
uncertain
website → accord → Sullivan
The DOJ lawsuit may be meritless, but it does raise awareness around the outrage of the two Dan Sullivans.
uncertain
it → raise → Sullivans
A Senate race upon which control of the body possibly depends shouldn’t be swayed by an incumbent senator’s unwelcome doppelganger.
uncertain
control → depend → doppelganger
The Aporia
