At last, something we can agree on.
asserted
we → agree → ?
With just under a week until the midterms, Americans are being told that everything is at stake.
asserted
everything → tell → stake
And yet, according to AP-NORC polling, only about two in ten voters believe either political party is strongly focused on helping people like them or capable of solving important problems.
uncertain
party → accord → problems
We've never been told an election matters more.
asserted
election → tell → ?
We've rarely expected less from the people we're electing.
asserted
we → expect → people
So here's the question I've been thinking about as a pollster.
asserted
I → think → pollster
What happens when everyone is angry, but not everyone is angry enough to vote?
asserted
everyone → happen → ?
Because that's what makes this election so difficult to predict.
asserted
election → make → ?
We spend an enormous amount of time asking Americans whom they support.
asserted
they → spend → whom
But in a midterm election, the more important question may be whether they care enough to show up.
uncertain
they → care → election
And the latest polling suggests those are two very different things.
uncertain
those → suggest → ?
A CNBC survey found that 74% of Democrats worry President Trump will exceed his constitutional authority if Republicans retain control of Congress.
asserted
Republicans → find → Congress
Meanwhile, 54% of Republicans fear Democrats will enact democratic socialist policies.
asserted
Democrats → fear → policies
But they tell us something important about the electorate.
asserted
they → tell → electorate
Democrats fear a president with too much power.
asserted
Democrats → fear → power
Republicans fear a government with too much reach.
asserted
Republicans → fear → reach
Both sides have plenty to be angry about.
asserted
sides → have → plenty
But anger doesn't vote.
asserted
anger → vote → ?
People do.
asserted
People → do → ?
And here's where things get interesting.
asserted
things → get → ?
Research examining the 2018 midterms found that worry helped predict who actually voted.
asserted
who → examine → midterms
Enthusiasm did not show the same relationship.
asserted
Enthusiasm → show → relationship
Nearly half of eligible Americans voted, the highest midterm turnout in more than a century.
asserted
half → vote → century
Apparently, Americans don't necessarily need to love their candidates to get themselves to the polls.
asserted
Americans → need → polls
Sometimes worrying about the alternative is motivation enough.
asserted
worrying → worry → alternative
Which brings us to 2026.
asserted
Which → bring → 2026
Pew Research finds Democrats have a substantial motivation advantage.
asserted
Democrats → find → advantage
Among voters who say they're extremely motivated, Democrats lead Republicans by 24 points.
asserted
Democrats → say → points
If those were the only people voting, Democrats could start planning a very enjoyable election night.
uncertain
Democrats → vote → night
Among people who actually voted in both 2022 and 2024, the Democratic advantage is just six points.
asserted
advantage → vote → 2022
The people who say they're most motivated to vote aren't necessarily the same people with the strongest history of showing up.
asserted
they → say → history
And that's a distinction worth remembering before anyone starts declaring a landslide.
asserted
anyone → start → landslide
The latest Fox News poll gives Democrats a 54% to 45% advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
asserted
poll → give → ballot
But among voters certain to participate, that lead narrows to six points.
asserted
lead → participate → points
CBS News projects Democrats will win 229 House seats, enough to reclaim the majority.
asserted
Democrats → project → majority
But CBS has identified another complication.
asserted
CBS → identify → complication
Democrats have more voters who say they're definitely voting or have already voted.
asserted
they → have → voters
Republicans have more voters who say they might vote.
uncertain
they → have → voters
In other words, Democrats have more of the voters who say they're coming.
asserted
they → have → voters
Republicans have more of the voters who haven't decided whether to bother.
asserted
who → have → voters
…and 81 more, not listed.
The Aporia
