Texas might finally turn blue, and the man poised to do it is a mask-wearing, trans rights–supporting, Gnostic Gospel–quoting liberal from Austin.
uncertain
man → turn → Austin
In an already tough year for Republicans, voter dissatisfaction at the state's data center boom is giving the Democrat an edge.
asserted
dissatisfaction → give → edge
A few weeks out from the 2026 midterm elections, the polls have been giving state Rep. James Talarico (D–Austin) a small, steady edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race to fill the Senate seat currently occupied by Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
asserted
polls → give → Cornyn
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
asserted
Texas → elect → 1994
The chattering class's constantly misfiring prediction that the latest liberal challenger will beat the favored Republican has made "Texas turning blue" a mockable meme—the political equivalent of Charlie Brown winding up to kick the football.
asserted
Brown → chatter → football
President Donald Trump's unpopular tariffs and unpopular war have made him, well, unpopular and given GOP candidates little to run on.
asserted
him → make → little
Texas Republicans are also saddled with Paxton, who won a hotly contested primary despite having little natural charisma and a lot of scandals (both personal and political) to explain away.
asserted
who → saddle → scandals
Republicans' political headwinds have made Talarico, a 37-year-old legislator with a history that puts him solidly to the left of the median Texas voter, a surprisingly competitive candidate.
asserted
that → make → voter
Some of Talarico's edge can no doubt be chalked up to the candidate's own political skill and fundraising advantage.
asserted
Some → chalk → skill
But he is also benefiting from a late-breaking development that few saw coming: the Lone Star's data center revolt.
asserted
few → benefit → development
For as long as Republicans have run Texas, they've been able to claim credit for the state's decades-long economic growth streak.
uncertain
they → run → streak
But the grassroots groundswell of opposition to Texas' data center boom has helped to neutralize that traditional GOP advantage.
asserted
groundswell → help → advantage
In solidly red rural areas, large majorities are telling pollsters that they are opposed to the hundreds of data centers proposed in their backyard.
asserted
they → tell → backyard
When Republicans thus talk about their economic stewardship today, it conjures up not positive feelings of persistent prosperity but dissatisfaction at all the ways the party has allowed an unpopular data center to be built next door.
asserted
center → talk → door
In a tight race, that might just be enough to give Talarico the last little push he needs to finally turn Texas blue.
uncertain
he → give → Texas
Lab-Grown Liberals vs. the GOP Growth Machine
All the Texas Senate races of the past couple of decades have taken place within a growth machine.
asserted
races → grow → machine
From 1998 through 2024, the Lone Star state posted the fourth-highest GDP growth rate, a period that roughly matches the GOP's unbroken record of statewide election wins.
asserted
that → post → wins
Not a day goes by, it seems, without a major corporation announcing a Texas megaproject or a billionaire relocating to booming Austin.
asserted
it → go → Austin
The state's frenetic growth rate has given the Texas GOP a good story to tell voters about why they should continue Republican rule: Under their low-tax, low-regulation regime, Texas has prospered.
asserted
Texas → give → regime
The jobs and businesses flooding into the state tend to be coming from states ruled by the Democrats trying to unseat them.
asserted
jobs → flood → them
Those Texas Democrats whose bids for statewide office have managed to electrify liberals, meanwhile, have been ill-suited to convince voters that they'll keep the "Texas Miracle" going.
asserted
they → manage → Miracle
There's an old joke that "Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love."
asserted
Democrats → be → love
In Texas, this hopeless romanticism has led to repeated heartbreak.
asserted
romanticism → lead → heartbreak
In 2014, Wendy Davis inspired a national media buzz with her pro-abortion messaging while running for governor against Greg Abbott.
asserted
Davis → inspire → Abbott
Beto O'Rourke's style-over-substance challenge to Ted Cruz in 2018 produced a similar mania.
asserted
challenge → produce → mania
Both lost.
asserted
Both → lose → ?
You might expect Talarico to meet a similar fate.
uncertain
Talarico → expect → fate
The fresh-faced lawmaker seems almost grown in a lab to leave liberals giddy while making swing voters stick with the GOP.
asserted
voters → seem → GOP
A former teacher, he first won elected office in 2018, when he flipped an open Texas House seat in the Austin suburbs from red to blue.
asserted
he → win → blue
Analyses of lawmakers' voting record put Talarico squarely in the ideological middle of his fellow Democrats, and well to the left of the state's political center.
asserted
Analyses → put → center
His national star began to rise among Democrats when he used religious arguments to challenge Texas Republicans' culture-war battles over education.
asserted
he → begin → education
In 2021, Texas Republicans proposed a bill requiring K-12 athletes to play on girls' or boys' sports teams according to the sex listed on their birth certificates.
uncertain
Republicans → propose → certificates
Two years later, they introduced a measure that would require the Ten Commandments to be displayed in public school classrooms.
asserted
Commandments → introduce → classrooms
Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, cited his liberal brand of Protestantism to oppose both bills.
asserted
Talarico → cite → bills
"Trans children are God's children, made in God's own image.
asserted
children → make → image
They are beautiful, and they are sacred," he said in a floor speech opposing the sports bill.
asserted
he → say → bill
In a debate on the Ten Commandments bill, he declared the legislation "deeply un-Christian," citing Christ's instructions in the Gospel of Matthew to pray privately.
asserted
legislation → declare → Matthew
(The sports bill eventually passed.
asserted
bill → pass → ?
The 2023 Ten Commandments bill failed, but a near-identical bill would pass in 2025.)
asserted
bill → fail → 2025
For national Democrats and liberal-leaning magazine writers, however, his penchant for reframing the Annunciation as a pro-abortion parable and his citations of the noncanonical Gospel of Thomas to support trans rights all served as proof that this "deeply religious" Democrat could effectively speak to Christian swing voters in their own terms.
uncertain
Democrat → lean → terms
…and 51 more, not listed.
The Aporia
