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Drivers forced to shell out extra £7.5 billion at the pumps - netting Treasury £1.3 billion VAT windfall - thanks to Iran war, study finds, as petrol and diesel prices spiral again to four-year high

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Churchill, D. (2026, September 15). Drivers forced to shell out extra £7.5 billion at the pumps - netting Treasury £1.3 billion VAT windfall - thanks to Iran war, study finds, as petrol and diesel prices spiral again to four-year high. Daily Mail. https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16132945/Drivers-forced-shell-extra-7-5-billion-pumps.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

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Daily Mail · collected 2026-09-15 · by David Churchill

Quick Summary

A study by the RAC Foundation reports that UK motorists have spent an additional £7.5 billion on fuel since February 28 due to tensions with Iran, causing petrol and diesel prices to reach a four-year high. The increased costs also resulted in a £1.3 billion VAT windfall for the Treasury. This development has prompted calls from opposition parties for Labour to scrap its planned January 2024 fuel duty hike in the upcoming budget.
Written by AI on 2026-09-16, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The RAC Foundation reports that due to the conflict between the US and Iran, UK drivers have paid £7.5 billion more in fuel costs since 28 February, when pump prices surged after the US bombed Iran and Tehran responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has also benefited the Treasury, which collected an additional £1.3 billion in VAT as a result of higher fuel prices. The escalating conflict pushed global oil prices above $100 per barrel, driving petrol and diesel prices to their highest point since the post-war era and a four-year high. This scenario has sparked calls for Labour leader Andy Burnham to scrap his planned 3p per litre Fuel Duty increase scheduled for January, citing the financial strain on motorists and businesses reliant on diesel-powered vehicles.

Written for “Iran War Oil Price Hike” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Iran War Oil Price Hike
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 12% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Bulwark
⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 0 of 6 claims
“The articles discuss different aspects of rising fuel costs; Article A focuses on diesel prices reaching $6 a gallon in the context of overall inflation and wage impacts, while Article B specifically addresses an extra £7.5 billion spent by UK drivers due to the Iran war.”
CBS News
⚖️ Centre further left than this Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles attribute rising diesel and petrol prices to different causes: Article A cites the Russia-Ukraine war, while Article B attributes it to the Iran war.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 4 of 29 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different policies and events related to fuel prices and taxes, not the same specific incident.”
BBC News
Hedges 2 of 12 claims Outlet record 68/100
“Article A discusses a study on increased petrol and diesel prices due to the Iran war, while Article B focuses on Ed Davey's call for immediate fuel duty cuts. These are different but related events.”
September 18, 2026 Different event
Letters from an American
⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 5 of 84 claims
“The articles discuss related events but do not describe the exact same incident. Article A focuses on the financial impact of increased fuel prices due to the conflict with Iran, while Article B reports on diesel reaching a record high price and political statements from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 5 of 43 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of economic impacts resulting from the Iran war, but they are not reporting on the exact same incident.”
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 2 of 28 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different policies and impacts related to fuel prices and taxes, not the same specific incident.”
Reason
⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 1 of 27 claims Outlet record 67/100
“The articles discuss the economic impact of the Iran War on fuel prices and government revenue, but they describe different aspects (one focuses on British motorists' extra spending and VAT for Treasury, while the other discusses U.S. war costs and supply chain disruptions).”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans left further left than this Hedges 1 of 19 claims Outlet record 65/100
“While both articles discuss fuel price increases and their impacts due to the Iran conflict, they describe different events: one focuses on the financial impact on drivers and Treasury revenue since February, while the other is about Lib Dems pressing for a temporary fuel duty cut amid rising costs.”
The Independent
Hedges 2 of 51 claims Outlet record 59/100
“While both articles discuss rising oil and gas prices linked to tensions between Iran and the US, they describe different aspects of the situation: one focuses on Trump's stance and blame-shifting, while the other reports on financial impacts in the UK.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
33
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
12%
4 of 33 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
68/100
Daily Mail's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-16 · source text last changed 2026-09-15 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Daily Mail · 8501 article(s) · 20 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 20 correction(s)

Who wrote this

David Churchill
23 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 Seen by the Daily Mail, it raises fears the competition watchdog will fail to intervene unless given 'explicit political backing' to do so.
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🔮 The Chancellor claimed he was doing drivers a favour by freezing Fuel Duty until July next year in today's Budget Pump prices have rocketed since the Iran conflict started, collectively costing drivers an estimated extra £10billion over the last eight months, netting Mr Healey a £1.7bn VAT windfall AA President Edmund King said 'the Chancellor could have gone further and cut Fuel Duty by an extra 5p'
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🔮 But it began to unravel today as critics pointed out this was already the existing cap. And the Government’s impact assessment revealed ministers rejected the idea of lowering this to £80 despite being told it could ‘benefit’ drivers.
🔮 Since Labour won the 2024 election, they have also announced a new pay-per-mile levy for electric and hybrid vehicles and are planning a Fuel Duty raid in the New Year which would push up pump prices even further after they spiralled following the Iran war.
Also by David Churchill
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 23 articles by David Churchill →

Topics

Labour Tory Treasury the Iran war the RAC Foundation

Subjects

Labour ORG · 5× Treasury ORG · 4× the RAC Foundation ORG · 3× Greg Smith PERSON · 2× Iran GPE · 2× RAC Foundation ORG · 2× Reform UK ORG · 2× Richard Tice PERSON · 2× Tory NORP · 2× Daily Mail ORG · 1×

Narrative

Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation, said: ‘Ending the war in the Gulf is out of the Government's hands, but easing the financial pain of sky-high fuel prices being suffered by private motorists and the countless businesses that rely on diesel-powered vehicles is in the gift of the Chancellor as he decides what to do about Fuel Duty in his upcoming budget.’
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-15
🔮 It sparked fresh calls today for Labour to use the first Budget of Andy Burnham’s premiership next month to scrap its planned 3p a litre Fuel Duty hike, set to kick in from 1 January.

Claims (33 extracted, 4 hedged)

- See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Drivers have been forced to shell out an extra £7.5 billion at the pumps because of the Iran war, piling pressure on Labour to scrap its planned Fuel Duty raid. asserted
Drivers → see → raid
A study by the RAC Foundation found the conflict has collectively cost motorists the staggering sum since 28 February, when pump prices rocketed after the US bombed Iran and Tehran responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz. asserted
Tehran → find → Hormuz
Meanwhile, the Treasury has netted a £1.3 billion VAT windfall thanks to higher prices. asserted
Treasury → net → prices
This is because the 20 per cent levy accounts for a bigger slice towards Treasury coffers when pump prices are higher. asserted
prices → account → coffers
It sparked fresh calls today for Labour to use the first Budget of Andy Burnham’s premiership next month to scrap its planned 3p a litre Fuel Duty hike, set to kick in from 1 January. asserted
Labour → spark → January
Motorists face a hammering at the pumps for many more months, with no end in sight to the war. asserted
Motorists → face → war
Petrol and diesel prices hit a post-war record and four year high today after the conflict flared up last week and global oil prices surged past $100 a barrel again. asserted
prices → hit → 100
Drivers have been forced to shell out an extra £7.5 billion at the pumps because of the Iran war, according to a study by the RAC Foundation Tory shadow transport minister Greg Smith said pressing ahead with a Fuel Duty hike would be a 'slap in the face to motorists from Whitehall' Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, accused Labour of taking drivers 'for a ride' amid a planned Fuel Duty hike Tory shadow transport minister Greg Smith said: ‘Prices at the pumps are eye-watering and the Government needs to stop fanning the flames with Fuel Duty rises. Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, added: ‘Drivers are literally being taken for a ride by Labour. uncertain
Drivers → force → Labour
‘Labour should scrap its planned 3p Fuel Duty hike immediately. asserted
Labour → scrap → hike
People need tax cuts, not another hit to their wallets.’ asserted
People → need → wallets
Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation, said: ‘Ending the war in the Gulf is out of the Government's hands, but easing the financial pain of sky-high fuel prices being suffered by private motorists and the countless businesses that rely on diesel-powered vehicles is in the gift of the Chancellor as he decides what to do about Fuel Duty in his upcoming budget.’ asserted
he → say → budget
Average petrol prices climbed again today to a post-war record of 170.54p a litre, according to the RAC, while diesel hit 192.86p. uncertain
diesel → climb → 192.86p
Before the conflict erupted, they were 132.83p a litre and 142.38p respectively. asserted
they → erupt → ?
It means the cost of filling up the average 55-litre tank in a family car with petrol is now £93 and £106 with diesel. asserted
cost → mean → diesel
The RAC Foundation study found diesel drivers - which includes vans and lorries as well as cars - have been hit the hardest. asserted
which → find → vans
Of the extra £7.5 billion shelled out at the pumps, it has cost diesel drivers £5.4 billion and they account for £894 million of the Treasury’s £1.3 billion VAT windfall. asserted
they → shell → windfall
Those calling for Fuel Duty to be frozen beyond January 1 also point out that the extra cost to haulage firms - which mostly use diesel - is often passed on, leading to higher prices on shop shelves and pushing up inflation. asserted
which → call → inflation
Chancellor John Healey was under growing pressure today to abandon a planned Fuel Duty hike as pump prices hit a four-year high Last week, US President Donald Trump tried to claim soaring prices were due to the war in Ukraine rather than the conflict he started with Iran Average petrol prices climbed again today to a post-war record of 170.54p a litre while diesel hit 192.86p, the highest for both fuels since summer 2022 uncertain
diesel → grow → summer
At present, Fuel Duty is set to be hiked by 3p a litre on New Year's Day and a further 2p on March 1, netting billions of pounds more for the Treasury as it scrambles for cash to pay for a series of unfunded commitments made by Mr Burnham during his first weeks in Downing Street. asserted
it → set → Street
The RAC Foundation study looked at fuel consumption data and average daily pumps prices since 28 February and compared them with pre-war prices. asserted
study → look → prices
Last week, global oil prices surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since July as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. asserted
conflict → surge → East
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose by more than 3% to top $101. asserted
crude → rise → 101
Today it was trading at around $106 to $108 a barrel. asserted
it → trade → 108
Oil prices have been pushed up by the effective closure for many months of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of oil supplies travelled before the war. asserted
fifth → push → war
It has sent pump prices spiralling in other countries too, with many Western governments slashing fuel taxes to help out hard-pressed motorists. asserted
governments → send → motorists
Last week, US President Donald Trump tried to claim soaring prices were due to the war in Ukraine rather than the conflict he started with Iran. uncertain
he → try → Iran
He said Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy had to ‘stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia’ because this was leading to a ‘shortage of diesel fuel’. asserted
this → say → fuel
He made the remarks two days after diesel prices in the US hit a record high and as he faces pressure amid predicted losses in November's US mid-term elections. asserted
he → make → elections
The RAC's Simon Williams added: 'Both fuels are now at prices last seen in early August 2022, just a few months after the start of the Ukraine War, following price rises of 8p a litre since the start of September. ' asserted
fuels → add → September
And with oil well over $100 a barrel, there's no end in sight to high pump prices and the pain it brings to drivers who depend on their vehicles.' Today's surge means average diesel prices are now close to the all-time record of 199.05p a litre. asserted
prices → be → 199.05p
The fuel hit this price in June 2022 in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. asserted
fuel → hit → Ukraine
A Treasury spokesman said: 'As has always been the case, decisions on tax are a matter for the Chancellor to set out at fiscal events, rather than routinely commenting on rumour, speculation or proposals. asserted
Chancellor → say → rumour
'The Chancellor is fully focused on his priorities, to give families and businesses a bit of breathing space, back British jobs, and drive growth in every postcode, underpinned by a commitment to meet the fiscal rules.' asserted
Chancellor → give → rules
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