Drivers forced to shell out extra £7.5 billion at the pumps - netting Treasury £1.3 billion VAT windfall - thanks to Iran war, study finds, as petrol and diesel prices spiral again to four-year high

Daily Mail · collected 2026-09-15 · by David Churchill
Read the original at Daily Mail ↗

Summary

A study by the RAC Foundation reports that UK motorists have spent an additional £7.5 billion on fuel since February 28 due to tensions with Iran, causing petrol and diesel prices to reach a four-year high. The increased costs also resulted in a £1.3 billion VAT windfall for the Treasury. This development has prompted calls from opposition parties for Labour to scrap its planned January 2024 fuel duty hike in the upcoming budget.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-16, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
33
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
12%
4 of 33 hedged
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject
Correction & hedging signals
58.2
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-16 · source text last changed 2026-09-15 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

The RAC Foundation reports that due to the conflict between the US and Iran, UK drivers have paid £7.5 billion more in fuel costs since 28 February, when pump prices surged after the US bombed Iran and Tehran responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has also benefited the Treasury, which collected an additional £1.3 billion in VAT as a result of higher fuel prices. The escalating conflict pushed global oil prices above $100 per barrel, driving petrol and diesel prices to their highest point since the post-war era and a four-year high. This scenario has sparked calls for Labour leader Andy Burnham to scrap his planned 3p per litre Fuel Duty increase scheduled for January, citing the financial strain on motorists and businesses reliant on diesel-powered vehicles.

Written for “Iran War Oil Price Hike” on 2026-09-15, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score +0.45 Confidence high 2 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning score +0.45 for article 10953 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-09-16

Story

📰 Iran War Oil Price Hike
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 12% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Bulwark
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 6
“The articles discuss different aspects of rising fuel costs; Article A focuses on diesel prices reaching $6 a gallon in the context of overall inflation and wage impacts, while Article B specifically addresses an extra £7.5 billion spent by UK drivers due to the Iran war.”
CBS News
⚖️ Centre further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 77
“The articles attribute rising diesel and petrol prices to different causes: Article A cites the Russia-Ukraine war, while Article B attributes it to the Iran war.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 4% hedged 2 of 51 📰 publisher trust 59
“While both articles discuss rising oil and gas prices linked to tensions between Iran and the US, they describe different aspects of the situation: one focuses on Trump's stance and blame-shifting, while the other reports on financial impacts in the UK.”
Dawn
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 23 📰 publisher trust 95
“While both articles discuss rising fuel prices due to conflicts in the Middle East, they describe different aspects and outcomes of the situation.”

Publisher

Daily Mail · 608 article(s) · 5 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 5 correction(s)
2026-09-15
Infamous prisoner known for his 'stop snitching' slogan DISAPPEARS during transfer from one federal prison to another
2026-09-15
Charles Manson's 'right-hand man' dies in prison at 83 after his parole was blocked 8 times
2026-09-15
Jeffrey Epstein's suicide watch 'companion' insists paedophile financier DID kill himself after becoming 'defeated' in his final days
2026-09-07
The evidence Epstein did NOT kill himself: Lawyer and pathologist reveal details they claim indicate the paedophile WAS murdered in jail in new documentary
2026-09-06
Clarifications and corrections

Who wrote this

David Churchill
3 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 It sparked fresh calls today for Labour to use the first Budget of Andy Burnham’s premiership next month to scrap its planned 3p a litre Fuel Duty hike, set to kick in from 1 January.
🔮 - See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Lord Khan, the Labour mayor for London, has more than tripled the number of miles subject to 20mph speed limits on roads under his control.
🔮 - See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source New toll roads could spring up across the country under Labour’s latest ‘war on motorists’.
More on this subject from David Churchill
All 3 articles by David Churchill →

Topics

Labour Tory Treasury the Iran war the RAC Foundation

Subjects

Labour ORG · 5× Treasury ORG · 4× the RAC Foundation ORG · 3× Greg Smith PERSON · 2× Iran GPE · 2× RAC Foundation ORG · 2× Reform UK ORG · 2× Richard Tice PERSON · 2× Tory NORP · 2× Daily Mail ORG · 1×

Narrative

Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation, said: ‘Ending the war in the Gulf is out of the Government's hands, but easing the financial pain of sky-high fuel prices being suffered by private motorists and the countless businesses that rely on diesel-powered vehicles is in the gift of the Chancellor as he decides what to do about Fuel Duty in his upcoming budget.’
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-15
🔮 It sparked fresh calls today for Labour to use the first Budget of Andy Burnham’s premiership next month to scrap its planned 3p a litre Fuel Duty hike, set to kick in from 1 January.

Claims (33 extracted, 4 hedged)

- See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Drivers have been forced to shell out an extra £7.5 billion at the pumps because of the Iran war, piling pressure on Labour to scrap its planned Fuel Duty raid. asserted
Drivers → see → raid
A study by the RAC Foundation found the conflict has collectively cost motorists the staggering sum since 28 February, when pump prices rocketed after the US bombed Iran and Tehran responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz. asserted
Tehran → find → Hormuz
Meanwhile, the Treasury has netted a £1.3 billion VAT windfall thanks to higher prices. asserted
Treasury → net → prices
This is because the 20 per cent levy accounts for a bigger slice towards Treasury coffers when pump prices are higher. asserted
prices → account → coffers
It sparked fresh calls today for Labour to use the first Budget of Andy Burnham’s premiership next month to scrap its planned 3p a litre Fuel Duty hike, set to kick in from 1 January. asserted
Labour → spark → January
Motorists face a hammering at the pumps for many more months, with no end in sight to the war. asserted
Motorists → face → war
Petrol and diesel prices hit a post-war record and four year high today after the conflict flared up last week and global oil prices surged past $100 a barrel again. asserted
prices → hit → 100
Drivers have been forced to shell out an extra £7.5 billion at the pumps because of the Iran war, according to a study by the RAC Foundation Tory shadow transport minister Greg Smith said pressing ahead with a Fuel Duty hike would be a 'slap in the face to motorists from Whitehall' Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, accused Labour of taking drivers 'for a ride' amid a planned Fuel Duty hike Tory shadow transport minister Greg Smith said: ‘Prices at the pumps are eye-watering and the Government needs to stop fanning the flames with Fuel Duty rises. Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, added: ‘Drivers are literally being taken for a ride by Labour. uncertain
Drivers → force → Labour
‘Labour should scrap its planned 3p Fuel Duty hike immediately. asserted
Labour → scrap → hike
People need tax cuts, not another hit to their wallets.’ asserted
People → need → wallets
Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation, said: ‘Ending the war in the Gulf is out of the Government's hands, but easing the financial pain of sky-high fuel prices being suffered by private motorists and the countless businesses that rely on diesel-powered vehicles is in the gift of the Chancellor as he decides what to do about Fuel Duty in his upcoming budget.’ asserted
he → say → budget
Average petrol prices climbed again today to a post-war record of 170.54p a litre, according to the RAC, while diesel hit 192.86p. uncertain
diesel → climb → 192.86p
Before the conflict erupted, they were 132.83p a litre and 142.38p respectively. asserted
they → erupt → ?
It means the cost of filling up the average 55-litre tank in a family car with petrol is now £93 and £106 with diesel. asserted
cost → mean → diesel
The RAC Foundation study found diesel drivers - which includes vans and lorries as well as cars - have been hit the hardest. asserted
which → find → vans
Of the extra £7.5 billion shelled out at the pumps, it has cost diesel drivers £5.4 billion and they account for £894 million of the Treasury’s £1.3 billion VAT windfall. asserted
they → shell → windfall
Those calling for Fuel Duty to be frozen beyond January 1 also point out that the extra cost to haulage firms - which mostly use diesel - is often passed on, leading to higher prices on shop shelves and pushing up inflation. asserted
which → call → inflation
Chancellor John Healey was under growing pressure today to abandon a planned Fuel Duty hike as pump prices hit a four-year high Last week, US President Donald Trump tried to claim soaring prices were due to the war in Ukraine rather than the conflict he started with Iran Average petrol prices climbed again today to a post-war record of 170.54p a litre while diesel hit 192.86p, the highest for both fuels since summer 2022 uncertain
diesel → grow → summer
At present, Fuel Duty is set to be hiked by 3p a litre on New Year's Day and a further 2p on March 1, netting billions of pounds more for the Treasury as it scrambles for cash to pay for a series of unfunded commitments made by Mr Burnham during his first weeks in Downing Street. asserted
it → set → Street
The RAC Foundation study looked at fuel consumption data and average daily pumps prices since 28 February and compared them with pre-war prices. asserted
study → look → prices
Last week, global oil prices surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since July as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. asserted
conflict → surge → East
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose by more than 3% to top $101. asserted
crude → rise → 101
Today it was trading at around $106 to $108 a barrel. asserted
it → trade → 108
Oil prices have been pushed up by the effective closure for many months of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of oil supplies travelled before the war. asserted
fifth → push → war
It has sent pump prices spiralling in other countries too, with many Western governments slashing fuel taxes to help out hard-pressed motorists. asserted
governments → send → motorists
Last week, US President Donald Trump tried to claim soaring prices were due to the war in Ukraine rather than the conflict he started with Iran. uncertain
he → try → Iran
He said Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy had to ‘stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia’ because this was leading to a ‘shortage of diesel fuel’. asserted
this → say → fuel
He made the remarks two days after diesel prices in the US hit a record high and as he faces pressure amid predicted losses in November's US mid-term elections. asserted
he → make → elections
The RAC's Simon Williams added: 'Both fuels are now at prices last seen in early August 2022, just a few months after the start of the Ukraine War, following price rises of 8p a litre since the start of September. ' asserted
fuels → add → September
And with oil well over $100 a barrel, there's no end in sight to high pump prices and the pain it brings to drivers who depend on their vehicles.' Today's surge means average diesel prices are now close to the all-time record of 199.05p a litre. asserted
prices → be → 199.05p
The fuel hit this price in June 2022 in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. asserted
fuel → hit → Ukraine
A Treasury spokesman said: 'As has always been the case, decisions on tax are a matter for the Chancellor to set out at fiscal events, rather than routinely commenting on rumour, speculation or proposals. asserted
Chancellor → say → rumour
'The Chancellor is fully focused on his priorities, to give families and businesses a bit of breathing space, back British jobs, and drive growth in every postcode, underpinned by a commitment to meet the fiscal rules.' asserted
Chancellor → give → rules
💬 Give feedback
🕘 History 🎫 Support